Gravesend Handicap (AQU 12/21)

[Appy]

Originally Posted by clore1030

No - I only play the NYRA circuit. I handicap every day, keep my records up-to-date and just wait for the overlays. This year at the Belmont Fall meet, my first wager resulted in a 56 dollar winner. That was enough for me and I only made one other bet which gave me a 25 dollar winner. I just handicapped for the rest of the meet - didn't wager at all. I'm long past needing the action and quite content to just take the money and run.

I was a little busier at the Aqueduct main track meet, nine wagers and five winners. I've learned that it pays to listen to the gut. Yes, I may toss out a few winners, but it also steers me away from many more losers.

I model using the categories on the BL screen. I look for situations where at a given distance, I have 40% or more winners coming from at least two factors - say EP and CPR. Then I wait for horses that will pay 4/1 or more.

If a certain distance doesn't come up with stats to suit my requirements, then I just don't wager. I'm not trying to be clever, I'm trying to cash tickets. I still have the fun of handicapping each race day and if I pass a winner or two, no big deal, there's always tomorrow.

All my stats come from fast track races, and nothing below a 20K claimer - again, the intent is to weed out the greatest number of questionable situations. If there are two unknowns in a race (such as no dirt form or horses with long layoffs), then I just pass the race.

That is a very good post clore. It highlights what I think is one of my bigger weaknesses and something I am working hard to improve, which is recognizing (admitting!) races best to pass.
Years of training as an athlete ingrains an attitude to meet and beat every challenge with which you are faced. Old habits are most difficult to overcome...especially for an old dog!

[clore1030]

Thank you Appy, nice of you to say such kind words. If it's any consolation, it only took me about 20 years to get to the point where I realized that I should stop being a general practitioner and go into specialization. Sure, I once had a day 30 years ago where I won 6 of 8 in one day, but it only happened once. The closest I came since was about 10 years later when I won 4 of 5 in one day by taking advantage of an inside early speed bias.

But my eyes were better then, I was doing that from the DRF and a calculator - I need a magnifying glass to read it now and it's such a strain that my head hurts. I had to come up with a new way of doing things, so at first I experimented with spreadsheets and formulas and calculating speed in terms of MPH. Then a friend tipped me off to the Methodology and the early programs, but all that data entry by hand either way was fatiguing.

It just comes down to my finding a way to minimize the races handicapped so I did long term analysis of my own weak spots. Now I was onto something - the win % went up just by virtue of avoiding certain situations entirely.

It comes with time and self-awareness. I wish you much success in your endeavors.