Problem Races Discussion

[Bill V.]

Thanks Late

If i had the ability to dig for horses like this. I would .
but I don't . Since I am old school and don't play contest
or multiple race wagers ala pack 3 4 5 or 6 There really is no reason to
(for me) to dig or keep any kind of model except. Early late .
I believe what Doc wrote about in at least 15 follow ups
Over a 20 race cycle betting enough per race and following his basic guidelines
I do fine just looking at the top 3 with ties VDC
So race like this are always a loss for me

[Latekick]

Bill, as a player i feel as though e an you are in the same boat, only thing being different is that i am sort of a contest player. I do keep a small model but for all of the tracks i play it can be difficult at times to keep them all up to date, so i mainly rely on VDC to lead me in the right direction and odds to break ties, i just use the odds, in a contest at least. One thing that i struggle with is when there is ties in the top 3 VDC and 2 or 3 of the horses are ALL basically the same price and trust me this happens a LOT more than i thought it did, it is a common occurrence. This is where i struggle in my contest play and i think that i would benefit from keeping more accurate models. SO, i need to learn my own lesson nd just buckle down and do it!
Anyway, haven't run into any problem races yet today but theres still a lot of racing to be done! Have a good one

[Latekick]

Well as i said in the before post that i had some recent struggles in contest play i may have jinxed myself in a good way! I was able to BARLEY win a small contest at Saratoga today and collected a $300 prize which was nice. Things went well today and i credit it to simply, learning from "Problem races". There were a few races today that could have gone terribly wrong for me, but i stuck to my guns and pulled out a win.
Hope everyone had a good and profitable day

[The Pook]

Originally Posted by Latekick

Well as i said in the before post that i had some recent struggles in contest play i may have jinxed myself in a good way! I was able to BARLEY win a small contest at Saratoga today and collected a $300 prize which was nice. Things went well today and i credit it to simply, learning from "Problem races". There were a few races today that could have gone terribly wrong for me, but i stuck to my guns and pulled out a win.
Hope everyone had a good and profitable day

Whats a BARLEY win? Do you mean PARLAY?

Pook

[Bill V.]

Hi latekick
Way to go on winning the contest. You alone will know what's best for you
Winning any way is really the goal .
Good Skill
Bill

[Latekick]

The most recent problem race i have is Del Mars first race today Sunday the 9th...
This horse was ranked LAST on my BLBL and 6th VDC. All of the horses above it had very legitimate pace lines and none were aberrant performances. Let me know what you had in this race

[Latekick]

Race 9 at del mar today also blew me away?

[Bill V.]

Race 1 - No comment

Race 9 Bottom of the barrel low rung claimer fillies, probably would run for less than $8000 if they could at Del mar

The winner just finished second at $16000 now wins as a chalk for 8

              DMR0809 9 6.0 D CL 3+F $19,000 CP=$8,000 6:10PM              7/13
JOCK/TRAIN       R   W   P   S   W%        R  W  P  S  EARNINGS   W%      EPS  R
PEDROZA, MARTI  69   8   7   7   12 LIFE  10  2  1  1    30,530   20    3,053  7
KITCHINGMAN, A  16   6   4   0   38 CURR   4  0  1  0     4,752    0    1,188 11
                                    PAST   5  2  0  1    23,260   40    4,652  4
ML= 5/1                             D-SP   8  1  1  1    20,080   13    2,510  8
  7 BEST IN CLASS            AGE=4  OFF-D
 COMMENT:
                      EQUALIZED, NORMALIZED AND ADJUSTED
L DAYSTRK RCODISTSd 1STC  2NDC  FINC   BL1   BL2   BLS   BLF  SR  ESP     L PI
1   45SA  2FT 8.5Dx 23.8  47.6 112.1  0.25  0.25  0.80  0.80  74          1
2[  63SA  7FT 7.0D  22.5  45.5 112.1  1.70  1.10  0.00  1.00  74          2    ]
3[  84SA  5FT 6.5D  22.0  45.2 111.1  1.10  2.10  4.70  6.70  74          3    ]
4  219SA  4FT 6.0D  22.2  45.1 111.5  5.30  8.70  8.70  7.40  71          4
5  245LRC 9FT 6.0D  22.5  45.9 110.6  0.00  0.00  3.10 10.60  72          5
6  282GG  6FT 8.0Dx 24.1  48.2 112.4  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  74          6
7  311FNO 5FT 5.5D  22.8  46.4 111.0  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  81          7
8  342DMR 1FT 6.0D  21.9  44.9 110.9  3.50  5.50  7.00  7.60  74          8
9  359DMR 7FT 5.5D  21.9  46.2 111.1  0.15  0.50  1.00  1.50  79          9
A  709DMR 4FT 5.5D  22.0  46.0 111.8  1.10  3.50  4.10  3.50  73          A
                                    DETAILS
L TYPE           PU/CP JOCKEY         PP FN FD    ODDSF COMMENT
1 CL-3+FNW3     16,000 PEREZ, FERNAND  3  7  7    6.70  INSIDE DUEL,WEAKENED
2[CL-3+FNW3     16,000 PEDROZA, MARTI  1  2  8   25.40  3WD BTWN 1/4,OUTKICKED
3[CL-3+FNW3     16,000 PEDROZA, MARTI  4  8  9   15.00  CAME OUT STR,WEAKENED
4 CL-4+FNW3     16,000 PEREZ, FERNAND  2  8 10   28.10  BOBBLED START,NO BID
5 CL-3F         20,000 PEDROZA, MARTI  5  6  8    5.50  DUELED, WEAKENED,
6 SA-3+FNW2     40,000 BAZE, RUSSELL   9  1  9    1.90* PACE,DRIFTED OUT,HELD
7 MC-3+F        25,000 BAZE, RUSSELL   6  1  6    0.80* 2W,KICKED AWAY,HANDILY
8 MC-3+F        50,000 PEREZ, FERNAND  4  5  9   10.30  SAVED GROUND,WEAKENED
9 MC-3+F        20,000 PEDROZA, MARTI  4  3 10    3.00  DUELED, HELD 3RD
A MC-2F         62,500 GARCIA, MARTIN  1  4  8   27.70  INSIDE,EDGED FOR 3RD
                                   WORK OUTS
 5D(FT)DMR:103.0H  5D(FT)DMR:101.6H  4D(FT)DMR: 49.4H  4D(FT)SA : 48.6H
 5D(FT)SA : 59.0H  6D(FT)SLR:114.2H  5D(FT)SLR:101.2H  5D(FT)SLR:102.2H
                                   FREQUENCY
WORK OUTS    7   13   21   32   91  101  115  126  133  143  228  254
RACES       45   63   84  219  245  282  311  342  359  709
                                 INSTRUCTIONS

[Latekick]

Bill, logical horse but i had him 4th on VDC and 4th BLBL if i remember correctly. Not worth a bet if its 4th and a favorite.
From today, Monday at Saratoga Bill i was wondering how you saw race 6 today. The winner is a logical horse but he was ranked 5th VDC for me and low on BLBL, how did you see this race

[Latekick]

Race 7 Saratoga Monday,
Another winner who was rated 5th on BLBL and 4th VDC, lots of problems today