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Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice |
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10-20-2014, 02:09 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
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Spot Play Thread: Lone Early / Dominant Early
Please post PP's or links to PP's here for potential spot plays. Here is a link to a nice race by Bill V. that fits both aspects of this spot play, a lone early that also fought to the 1C in its last race...
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2957 |
11-02-2014, 04:02 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
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11/05 - Pen 7th
This is a small but interesting race. The 1,2,5 and 6 come out of a FPLR tandem. The 5 fought through the 1st two calls and was only beaten 2 lengths or so by the tandem-winning 6 horse. Doesn't look like there are any other true earlies in this race...
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11-04-2014, 11:53 AM | #3 |
Maiden
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3
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I am new at this, so I will give it a try.
1-E 2-S 3-S 4-EP 5-E 6-S The 1 out slow The 2 out slow The 3 doesn't look like he will keep up with the pace The 4 out slow The 5 I thought could win The 6 thought he would have to come from to far back. Please correct me where wrong. I am trying to learn this. Thank you |
11-04-2014, 01:55 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA
Posts: 1,035
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My thought is that the 5 will have some speed pressure, so I'm going OTE.
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11-05-2014, 01:02 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: I live in Toronto, Ontario, can
Posts: 220
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In this race it looks like the 5 is going to wire the field. He fought at the first 2 calls but the horse he fought with is not in this race so the 5 should not have any problem.
emilio |
11-05-2014, 11:36 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 168
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PEN 7 Nov 05
5 Brun B has never gotten a full length lead. So, I put his pace at one step ahead of the other two pressers. (3 and 4)
22.8 46.2 At that pace 5 is caught by 3 at Str in 59.1 Looking to OTE. 6 One Ti is closest to pace positionally. Betting 6 to Win. |
11-05-2014, 06:37 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
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My Winning Group:
(6,2,5) Todays Projected Pace: 22.4/45.3 Early Scenario: I eliminated the (4,3) as early horses not able to handle the early pace of 5. But overall I see the winner being OTE. Tandems: The (1) showed little in the last tandem so I eliminated him. (6,2) were top in the tandem. Conclusion: Bet (6,2) as the OTE's at sufficient odds. Pook |
11-05-2014, 09:41 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA
Posts: 1,035
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Pete, nice spot play, not a bad payoff!
jgibilaro- looks like your on your way! Good Job!! emilio- confident call! Nice!! Mike |
11-05-2014, 10:29 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: I live in Toronto, Ontario, can
Posts: 220
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Thank you Mike
emilio |
11-06-2014, 09:33 AM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 168
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PEN 7 Nov 05 replay
Throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
Race played out exactly as matched. 5 led 3 and 4 in 22.6 46.2 3 Caught 5 in 58.9 But 3 did not pass 5 I quickly make the mistake of seeing equal pacelines and tossing all earlies. The assumption is that E will get tired and let P and S pass by. I do this in lot of races. Should we be looking for a measurably faster paceline from the pressers? Any ideas on what tells us when the Early will not drain out? |
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