DMR Race 2 - 8/12/2018

[Jeebs]

Race 2 - 1m Dirt, Claiming $20,000, 3up

[Jeebs]

Last line. Best perceptor of the last 3 starts is comparable to today's surface and distance. Goes first off the claim today, but current form is questionable. It's 162.3 total energy as well as its TPR appears on the weak side.



Last line. Line 2 is the best of last 3, but a poly race. I tend to view Dirt and Poly the same way I view Dirt and Turf: not comparable due to the nature of the individual surfaces. However, this is a common problem in California, especially with many horses shipping from the North. This horse admittedly gave me a headache. I went with Line 1, as it was over today's track and is today's distance. Looks like a NTL early.



Line 2. The last line is the best of three, but is a turf race. Line 2 is comparable. Weak runner off its total energy and TPR, plus sketchy recent form don't inspire much in this matchup.

[Jeebs]

Line 2. Last line is a poly line. Line 2 rates best of last 3. 1st race in 66 days starts new form cycle, and should be supported as the favorite.



Line 10. The $64,000 question is: Why? The last line and Line 2 are both turf lines, and Line 3 is over a sloppy strip. What does one do when there are no comparable lines to rate? I was reluctant to use the sloppy race, so looked at the perceptor totals over dirt. Perhaps I take what I have and use the sloppy race, but Line 10 rates closest to the best perceptor from the turf. 6-1 ML. IMO, an unknown factor.



Line 2. NTL speed, and Line 2 is best of last 3. Based on EPR, it has not shown ability to run a 93-94 EPR, which would be needed to chase the #2. TPR and total energy also behind others.



Last line. Only recent and decent comparable line to today's surface/distance structure.

[Jeebs]

Using TPR, 1-3-6 were weak, so they get hidden from the primary group. This leaves us in order of BL tier, 5-4-7-2. If #5 gets bet down, no play. I had better get value by digging to Line 10 for a line. The remaining primary contenders are the top 3 ML, so there's no value in betting the better price of those contenders if I'm not getting value on #5.

[Jeebs]

#7 wins as the 3rd tier runner. #4 (2nd tier) gets the place. #5 never fired.

[Bill V.]

Nice workup Tim

I just walked in the door and i missed your post

This is what I come up with

The 5 must have just liked the sloppy track at LS, not the hard Del Mar dirt

4 and 7 are right there

[Jeebs]

Word's out on #5. At 7/2, PASS.