Contender Selection Situation (Apr 13, 2013 - OP Race 4)

[NeedForSpeed]

Hi again
I am continuing through practice races trying to make selections and I have come upon a situation I would think we would see a fair amount of the time. I am selecting contenders and am not sure what to do with this one. The race is OC 40/57 N2-X. Kates Main Man is the horse. Its last race pace line is "+" so we take it right? But the conditions were SA 20/28 N2-6M. I would think that race is a step below todays. The third race same thing. "+" line but step below. Now look at the middle race pace line #2. That race seems to fit today's conditions and it ran a "0" pace line. Now look at the odds. The "+" races odds are far below today's ML. The "0" pace line race the odds are higher and closer to today's ML.

So the question to all is this. Is he a contender or not? Is there methodology I can use here to make a determination? Thanks!