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07-23-2017, 03:54 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Day 5 The San Clemente Handicap Grade 2
8.0 on the turf
The big favorite is horse 7 (7 in the 7th) Undefeated Sircat Sally This is a Handicap Grade 2 for 3-year-old fillies Here are the program numbers with J/T ML and weights Sally carries the high weight 125 pounds |
07-23-2017, 04:07 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Lots
3-year-old fillies. So there is a ton of early speed
and lots of unknowns The 7 should get her trip but 8 wins in a row ? Making a small bet here, I will go based on ML odds 3 and 8 but the 2 at 12/1 looks nice The 6 maybe if she can pick it up in the EPR can the 5 and 9 learn from training/workouts how to run 2 turns? Good Skill Bill |
07-23-2017, 05:26 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
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These two are Early horses but they aren't Need to Leaders. Dangerous! Regardless of odds...
7,8 for the win Pook |
07-23-2017, 07:46 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Another tough race with 4 unknown factors.
If the # 7 wins it'll pay nothing, obviously has never been challenged and horses like this only do what they have to. Number 5 & 9 are stretch outs and unknown, I'll toss them because they have to step up in class and stretch out, one is OK, two no. The 4 & 6 are foreign an unknowns. Not a playable race . order is 7-3-4-9 You may be able to make money with a DD. Mitch44 |
07-23-2017, 08:46 PM | #5 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
I added the 5 as an ITM only just because of its pace value Here is the 9, I completely discarded her because I could only go by what RDSS showed me, That is 2 terrible efforts previously going 2 turns The 9 wins and pays $44+ Chart to follow No bet for me today Bad Vibes Bill |
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07-23-2017, 09:22 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I had the 4 & 9 tied and gave the nod to the 4 as he was proven at the distance. If I could have had the 9 3rd I would have bet him. I thought he was the best of the two stretch outs. 3 yr. olds at this time of the year are just tough races to play ,normally I pass them till about mid Sept., by then you can get a better line on them.
Del Mar & SAR are tough tracks to beat because of so many 2 & 3 yr. old races ,plus so many turf races which contain so many FTS on turf. These races ruin many a DD,P3 and EX. with these unknown factors. Many are just impossible to get no matter how good you are at this game. Even fun bets with these races can add up. ONWARD, Mitch44 |
07-23-2017, 09:37 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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The #9 is an improved horse since those routes. In his last he went wide in the stretch and lost ground. Ran the last in 6 seconds while making up 2 & 3/4 lg. He was flying with a norm being about 6 & 2/5.I don't think he was properly prepped for those routes. Today he had two sprints off a layoff and then the stretch out today ,plus some nice works.
I don't box horses but this is one of those cases where it would have paid ,both ex. & tri. I'm not changing a thing. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 07-23-2017 at 09:41 PM. |
07-23-2017, 09:58 PM | #8 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
Me either I liked the 3 who placed, but like the 7 she was no value. I am still working on how to evaluate the 6.5 hill races, Socal racing is tough because the hill horses owners don't want them sitting in the barn, until Santa Anita returns so they are always sprinkled into the turf routes Anyway |
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07-23-2017, 10:46 PM | #9 |
always learning
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe
Posts: 277
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Too many unknowns for me, + three year olds this time of year, I pass on.
I ran it through my profile. If I had played it, I would have gone with 7-3. |
07-24-2017, 06:37 AM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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And now the rest of the story.
UPDATE: From Bloodhorse "The horse can run," Baltas said of Madam Dancealot, who won a group 3 sprint in her final start in England. "She changed her style, that's all. In Europe she was always up on the lead. She did a lot of crazy things before the Breeders' Cup behind the gate because she wasn't used to the pony. So we put her out there with the pony every day to get her used to it. "She's been closing in sprints, but I never thought she'd be last like that. I don't see why she can't run like that every time if she settles like that." Previously undefeated Sircat Sally, who came into the race off five straight grass stakes wins, made a mild rally from fourth to finish third, but was vanned off after the race. Owner Joe Turner said the three-time graded stakes winner sustained a fracture in one of her legs. Turner said the California-bred Surf Cat filly is retired from racing and after surgery to repair the fracture, will start a second career as a broodmare. Turner did not specify where the fracture was in her limb. "She's got a crack," the owner said. "She's not going to run any more. She's already done a lot for me, so she's going to be a broodmare. The doctor told us we were lucky, because (it wasn't a more severe break). Mitch44 |
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