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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 05-27-2013, 08:02 PM   #1
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Met Mile & HANDICAP races

If you think it is hard for a 3 year old to win the 3 year old Triple Crown, (Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont), there is another Tripe Crown that is even harder, the Handicap Triple Crown. Only four horses have accomplished this feat, Whisk Broom (1913), Tom Fool (1953), Kelso (1961) and Fit To Fight (1984). All three races are run in New York. The races are the Metropolitan Handicap, Brooklyn Handicap and the Suburban Handicap. Although the Metropolitan Handicap is commonly known as “The Met Mile”, take notice that all three races are “HANDICAP” races. What does this mean?

Before I go on, I understand that “weight” plays no part in the methodology, neither does weight play any part in my own day to day handicapping, however, weight does play a part in handicap races at any level.

Let’s start with the 3 year old triple crown races. They are all run on the basis of “weight for age”, which means three year olds all carry 126 pounds. By contrast, in the handicap triple crown races, the racing secretary assigns the weight to be carried by each horse. The best horses in the racing secretary’s opinion carry the most weight. Those horses that the racing secretary considers lesser horses carry less weight. It is possible to see one horse carrying 140 pounds and another horse carrying 110 pounds, in the same race. So what does all this mean?
The winner of a handicap race, at any level, generally comes from one of the top three high weighted horses. As with everything else in horse racing, nothing is 100%, however this little piece of information is a good starting point in handicap races.

Just so you don’t have to go look it up, there were two horses in today’s Metropolitan Handicap that were tie for the high weight. They ran first and third. Here are the entries.

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Now I mentioned this applies to handicap races at any level. As it so happens, there were two nondescript handicap races at PARX today. Here are the entries for those races. The winner is circled in red.

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Old 05-28-2013, 10:27 AM   #2
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Thanks for the info FTL.
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Old 05-28-2013, 04:59 PM   #3
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There was another “HANDICAP” race at PARX today. The high weight won the race. Here are the entries for the race, including the weight assignment for each horse. The entries for any race can be found at Equibase.

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Old 05-28-2013, 07:21 PM   #4
Bill V.
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Not enough handicap

Hello FTL

Maybe the person making the weights needs to make an adjustment
Yes the top weight horse is winning but based on the odds they won at
was it really a race ?
Unlike the Met Handicap which had a $11 winner and a photo finish
These 3 Parx races saw a $2.20 and yesterday was a $5.00 winner and 1 winner at $3 something

Bill
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Old 05-28-2013, 07:32 PM   #5
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Starter HANDICAPs

Whenever you see a GRADED race, it might be a "HANDICAP" race and it might not be a handicap race. Reading the conditions will provide the answer.

A race does NOT have to be a GRADED race in order to be a handicap race. The previous examples from PARX are evidence that low level races can also be handicap races.

An important point here is not to confuse a "Starter Allowance" with a "Starter HANDICAP". They are two different races.
A Starter Allowance is weight for age with allowances for performance.
A Starter Handicap has no allowances and the weight is assigned by the racing secretary. Below are examples of each condition. The conditions start out looking very similar, but the similarity ends quickly.

Let's look at a Starter Allowance race first.
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Now let's look at a Starter Handicap race.
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Read each condition carefully.
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Old 05-28-2013, 07:47 PM   #6
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More on HANDICAP races

Lower level HANDICAP races, commonly known as "Starter Handicap" races, are generally run as a series of races.
Today's 7th race at PARX was the first in a starter handicap series.

Think of a handicap race as a party. The racing secretary sends out invitations to the party and it is up to the recipient to accept or decline the invitation.

Below is a list of the horses that were invited to today's party.
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The above is from the "condition book". Notice that is says the race "is to be run" (indicating at some future date) on May 28, 2013.

There were 39 horses invited. 12 of those 39 actually attended. Take note that the list is in "weight" order, with the high weight at the top and the low weight at the bottom. Also notice that the racing secretary "prefers" the high weighted horses attend. This is the way it works at ALL LEVELS.

As you can see, this is the first leg in the series, so there will be more to come. The dates and all other information is contained in the condition book and the horses connections are aware of when ALL legs in the series will be run.
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Old 05-28-2013, 07:48 PM   #7
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And

hello FTL

In the SA series at Parx they also have the AND non winners life
condition There are N 2-L, N3-L and another for non winners of a maiden claiming starter or PA bred OR non winners of 4-L
In the race you use as an example Its a SA 16 and NW 2-L

Bill
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Old 05-28-2013, 07:58 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
hello FTL

In the SA series at Parx they also have the AND non winners life
condition There are N 2-L, N3-L and another for non winners of a maiden claiming starter or PA bred OR non winners of 4-L
In the race you use as an example Its a SA 16 and NW 2-L

Bill
Hi Bill,

The "SA" (Starter Allowance) IS NOT a series.

It is the "SH" (Starter Handicap) that IS a series.

I apologize if I was not clear on this.
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Old 05-29-2013, 01:37 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Hello FTL

Maybe the person making the weights needs to make an adjustment
Yes the top weight horse is winning but based on the odds they won at
was it really a race ?
Unlike the Met Handicap which had a $11 winner and a photo finish
These 3 Parx races saw a $2.20 and yesterday was a $5.00 winner and 1 winner at $3 something

Bill
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Attachment 34346

Attachment 34347
Hi Bill,

I don't know what adjustment could be made. The idea is to make the best horse (in the racing secretary's opinion) carry the most weight and then scale the weights down from there.

If you read my post (below) you will see that the racing secretary "hopes" and "encourages" the high weighted horses to enter, which will make for a more competitive race and also better odds for the betting public. Like any other type of race, this doesn't always happen.

Keep in mind that the top weighted horse is not necessarily the winner of the race. As I said from the outset, the winner generally comes from one of the top three high weighted horses. And to further reinforce my earlier comments, nothing in racing is 100%. I thought I would provide this information to help with a starting point for contenders in these types of races. Perhaps this will also help with whether or not to even get involved in the race.

As you pointed out, the Starter Handicap races at PARX the last two days have been won by favorites. Armed with the information I have provided here, perhaps you would choose not to get involved. Certainly it is not worthwhile betting on these short priced favorites and it may be in ones best interest to pass the race.

There will be handicap races with good prices. Like any other type of race, you just have to wait for them.
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Old 05-29-2013, 02:54 AM   #10
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For The Lead, this is very good info. Actually reading the 'Racing Conditions' and actually understanding the conditions can be the difference between cashing a ticket and tearing one up. Lets face it, some of the conditions get to be very confusing when there can be up to three different conditions in one race and different weight allowances for non winners of such by this date and so many pounds allowed by non winners of two by this date. Any other tidbits into comprehending 'racing conditions' and what to look for would be appreciated.
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