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12-07-2013, 01:09 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Setting the fulcrum POR
This video is not to promote the value of the fulcrum method
I find that it may not be the best method to project the POR ,it still works very well. Not so much to project the pace of race but it is very predictive in seeing which horses are contenders in today's race In the video you will see I did not consider the #1 as a fulcrum qualifier. It was very close to being with 5 beaten lengths at the second call and the finish but its not close enough I also show how to highlight the second call - but you can do the same thing and highlight all 4 calls by right mouse clicking over the pace of race fractions and final time. Here is the video. The race is Parx race 6 today 12/7/13 Fulcrum.mp4 |
12-07-2013, 06:53 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: New-York, NY
Posts: 129
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Great video Bill! Refresher for me.
Have nice weekend
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Paul |
12-07-2013, 08:48 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana
Posts: 334
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GOOD JOB Bill.
You should do more of those for all phases of working a race with RDSS. It's much more like doing it yourself, but without the trial and error guesswork. Give yourself a blue star!
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Serious fun. www.cappersoverlay.com |
12-14-2013, 04:29 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2013
Location: NY
Posts: 455
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Questiong for you Bill, how come you don't set the fulcrum based on the line you will using in the race?
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12-14-2013, 06:14 PM | #5 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Just following the guidelines
Quote:
" First of all, the fulcrum pace is always taken from a horse's last pace line. Always. This is a rule as far as I am concerned. I get comments often at seminars about this, and I point out to the person making the comment that since I am the person who came up with the concept of the fulcrum pace, I am entitled to have the final say on what is or isn't a fulcrum pace ! Always take the fulcrum from the last line. Even if a horse typically runs faster and in its last race a runaway rhinoceros interfered with this horse causing it to run a second call ten seconds slower than usual, use another horse: always take the fulcrum pace from the horse's last paceline. You may ask why I am repeating this so often and why I am so insistent about this. When I first presented the concept of the fulcrum pace, I had several exceptions to using the last pace line in favor of a faster second call time further back in the horses's past performance. However. what I have found was although those techniques were better at predicting the actual pace of race and which horse or horses would be setting that pace, it would tend to setting faster fulcrum paces and consequently eliminating too many legitimate contenders." --- |
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12-17-2013, 01:19 PM | #6 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 18
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Bill V: Thanks for the information. Last-line-only is Pizzolla's belief, but do you yourself do the same thing differently, or does the demonstrated way work out well?
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12-17-2013, 04:51 PM | #7 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
Here is a race I just happen to be going over, when i saw your post Here are the last lines for ever horse in the race Race 5 June 5 2013 1 Mile CL 7.5 N2 - L Last line for every horse Who qualifies ? Who comes from the fastest pace of race and is less than 5 bl at the second call and finish ? H1 Yes POR 48.1 and 114.3 H2 Yes POR 47.8 and 113.7 H3 No too far back at second call H4 scratch H5 No too far back at finish H6 No too far back at finish H7 Yes POR 49.8 and 115.3 H8 Na too far back at second call and finish So Horse 2 with a time of 47.8 and 113.7 has faced the fastest pace of race from the last line Now is this race atypically fast ? I would say yest to being fast but #2 has run plus races against a 113.7 so I will set the Fulcrum at 113.7 Here is the results The fulcrum horse had no other early or EP runners in the race It was able to go wire to wire at a slow 114 POR |
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12-17-2013, 05:32 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Posts: 624
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Reread Bills post above yours. Pizzolla makes it abundantly clear that its last line only. I'm going through his chapter again in Pace Makes The Race.
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Terry |
12-17-2013, 10:54 PM | #9 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 18
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Segwin: I know how Pizzolla explains it. I wanted to know if Bill made any modifications or exceptions to it.
Bill: thanks for the example. |
02-08-2014, 08:57 AM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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What if horses 3 & 5 in your example (coming out of sprints) were close to the pace (5 lengths or less)? How would you approach that? Esp. since #5's 3rd call is 59.2?
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