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03-31-2019, 10:04 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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Picking Losers
Imagine if Andy Beyer had written a book on horse race betting and entitled it "Picking Losers". Probably wouldn't sell many. I will argue that skill in picking losers when handicapping and betting on horses is critical as to whether you have a mathematical edge (+EV) and will actually make $ over a reasonable sample size.
Too many on this board are living in the past as far as handicapping and betting go: 1. The game is no longer about having the best speed or pace figures, now that speed or pace figures are widely disseminated 2. The game is no longer about betting the horse with the best early speed, as large public data bases have been data mined and this angle now overbet 3. The game is now dominated by large syndicates getting large (8% plus) rebates and small fields such that favorites now win close to 40% of all races and prices on these favorites are bet down to reflect the large rebates being received. 4. The game has NEVER been about contender selection being higher than an arbitrary percentage 5. The game has NEVER been about win percentage being higher than an arbitrary percentage But wait -- Sartin always said we need to have N contenders X percent of the time, and a win percentage of Z betting 2 horses a race. My response is that Sartin is not betting horses in 2019 conditions. In reality, with today's conditions, if you are winning more than 25% of your 1-horse win bets or more than 50% of your 2-horse win bets YOU ARE BETTING TOO MUCH CHALK. Chalk is where the syndicates live and unless you are a high rebate player your will lose trying to play in their sandbox. You need a mathematical edge to win $. So how do we find our mathematical edge? First, it is important to remember that we are betting into a pari-mutuel pool. We are not betting ON horses, we are betting AGAINST others in the pool. It is not about picking pace lines, interpreting read-outs, and betting on winners. It is about picking losers. Why picking losers? Because in addition to betting AGAINST others in the pool, roughly 20% of the win pool (and higher for exotics) is the "vig". For every $1 you bet, you are down 20 cents before the race is even run. That is the undeniable math. In order to make $ at this game, you have to find races where you can overcome the "vig". Professional gamblers call this "getting the best of it". How do we overcome the "vig"? NOT by picking winners, but by picking LOSERS! That's right, your most important job when handicapping and betting a race is to find a horse going off at 3-1 or LOWER that, in your trusted opinion, CANNOT WIN. This will create a pari-mutuel pool for your individual bet that now has +EV, and if your contender selection/pace line selection/betting selection skills are any good, you have a fighting chance to actually make $ at this game. For those who are successful, most of their winnings come from betting to win on horses paying more than $10, or betting exactas where the place horse is NOT one of the top 3 betting choices, or betting horizontals where at least half of the sequence is won by horses paying 4-1 or higher. Bottom line, betting horses is not about picking winners. It is not about cashing tickets. It is about picking losers that make up roughly 25% of the pool (or more), and finding +EV bets with your other horses. Richard |
03-31-2019, 10:30 AM | #2 |
Conley
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Fergus, Canada
Posts: 1,777
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Rdiam, great paragraph! Yes it sucks that the early speed angle, betting the last out Beyer, Speed/Pace figures, and a few more that people realized and followed that later went downhill. The question is what happens if we never discovered the last out Beyer or early speed angle? Would the world of horse racing be the same? Or would be have a different spin on handicapping?
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Life is an adventure, enjoy it and live every day as if it were your last- Barb Craven |
03-31-2019, 12:25 PM | #3 | |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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03-31-2019, 12:35 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Dave Swartz has done an article on picking losers. He is correct in his theory in that for every loser on can eliminate it places you closer to your goal.
Determining a false favorite is also a huge advantage to players of this sport. I find this to be the most difficult thing in racing to do,especially on any consistent basis. On many of these type horses you never know until the race is over whether the decision was correct. Such as current soundness, able to stretch out, accept a new surface etc. We never know when a horse ran one race too many or too hard until several races later. Horses on the Derby trail easily fall into this category. This game has been beaten several times but once the masses get it and it belongs to everyone the playing field gets leveled again. With the advancement of technology (computers) the game has changed along with small fields and too many tracks etc. Results are more favorites win and are created from smaller fields and too much racing / tracks. The effect of all this has also caused prices to drop and its not unusual for the majority of winners to pay under $9 on most cards, and if you miss that race paying $11 or $12 that day then it could be a bad day. Richards mathematical formula basically is a more complicated form of Sartin 's take on wager capping. A problem with all this is its like beauty in that an overlay in in the eye / judgment of the player. At one time I use to take 9-5 ($5.60) on a horse and my records showed I could make a profit on this. I got away from this and turned this around. That percentage is very good for me and becomes a key horse to key in such a way as too make a profit. One area I part ways with Sartin is that I don't believe in wager capping. I always ask the question of how can I make money out of this race from my assessment or handicapping. Winners are the springboard to all profits and success, period. This includes contests. EX,DD,P-3's etc. In fact most P6 are won by mostly regular paying horses and only 1 or 2 very good priced horses. Not all bombs as the public perceives. The valid question of ,how can I make money out of this race is so important and even more so today along with money management. The old standard of being an expert, which I learned at a Sartin seminar, still exists today. And that is as Richard states here today of 33% on one horse betting. Also as he states the public has problems picking Ex. horses etc. I doubt many here even look at a Ex. or DD matrix of the payoff, but you need to know whether a bet is worth the risk. Everyone looks at the tote and cans see the horse is 1/1 on the board but most/ majority don't look at a EX or DD matrix to see if a bet is worthwhile. Maybe hard today at the track with its long lines but not in this computer age. Years ago at Parx (several name changes since then) I use to select a teller that had an overhead TV so I could see the changes before I got up to the window. As Richard points out there is a lot of money to be made in exotic pools and it remains hidden to most. There is still some Sartin concepts that remain out of the public domain which gives us an edge. While pace is out there and the price has diminished it still is effective to get that key horse. Also other pace numbers out there by and large just aren't good at all. Lt1 and I did separate studies of Pizzolla pace numbers and for a guy who once worked for Sartin his numbers were the worse I've ever seen. Even the very old PMTR numbers could beat it.Other Sartin tools are not used at all or not being used by the masses and they give us an edge over them. Pundits talk of the match up on TV but few really understand its concepts and inter working. The tools in your Sartin toolbox are useless and just collecting rust if not used. And if you don't know what that tool is for, well it'll never get used. Exploit any edge you can get and capitalize on the public mistakes. As Richard says today its not about percentages of winners but making money. If you lost 9 out of 10 races and hit the last for a $1 profit for the day it was a good day. Winners are the springboard to profits regardless of what they pay, they are the key. Yesterday my Dubai winner only paid $4.60 but keyed a $125.60 Ex. The Arabs betting those local horses really overlaid the Ex pool. Finally large fields cause maximum confusion and aid in better win prices and exotics. Mitch44 |
03-31-2019, 12:44 PM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Thanks Richard
I can't say I agree with your views but I respect your excellent postings.
I very rarely think about what the whales are doing when I make my bets. I talked about this with you 2 years ago at Pace and Cap day @Saratoga I don't care what anybody else is doing, I can't let the odds bother me Yes I don't want to play chalk but I will if its the best play, I can work with favorites in double, pick 3's and Pick 4's. Because the whales don't win every race, I have a chance in the play to hit a price and increase my win dollars tremendously If you look at the tickets I post I usually single at least 1 leg and that leg usually is on the chalk. My only goals in this game are to make a profit and to do better every day with my 20 race cycles I can't say what Doc would be doing in today's racing- Nobody knows for sure. Anyway, I am sure your thinking is the right way. Good Skill Bill |
03-31-2019, 06:25 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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By no means am I suggesting to NEVER bet favorites. That would be ignoring the math since they are winning close to 40% of races these days. But we are involved in a task that involves decision making under uncertainty. We need to deal in probabilities. In order to bet a favorite to win, it has to be going off even money or better, AND there has to be at least one horse whose tote odds are 3-1 or LOWER that I would deem highly unlikely to win. But here is the problem with current day betting pools: most favorites are obvious, and the rebate syndicates will pound that horse. As you know, when the odds on 1 horse gets pounded in a pari-mutuel pool, the odds on other horse(s) will go up. So many of these favorites will be underlays in the win pool because their odds have been cut so much that it is highly unlikely any other horse that "can't" win will be trading at 3-1 or lower.
Regarding favorites that are singles in horizontal bets, remember this rule of thumb: whatever you spend on the horizontal bet with a single is mathematically equivalent to betting that amount on the single to win. If this size bet is within your bankroll parameters, fine. But if you are a $20 win bettor and you just spent $200 on a pick 4 with a single, you are probably over-betting your bankroll. Richard |
04-01-2019, 11:35 AM | #7 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Betting is not allowed in Dubai. Their only options are to wager with bookmakers in Europe or the parimutuel hub that took American and other international wagers.
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04-09-2019, 11:43 PM | #8 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Scared
This is a letter I received on Sunday
Hope everything is ok with you. "Todays 3rd at Parx I was using XXXX it came up with a horse rated first . There was a horse that looked to be the only speed which it was going off at 3-2. So got nervous and only bet 2 dollars the horse won at 12-1." I thought about this letter for a while. My reply is to revisit this thread. I feel that the issue the writer is having is tied into "betting for value" and the value of betting 2 horses to win, The heart and soul of the methodology is betting 2 horses to win and betting with a positive expectation of winning. The bread and butter record-keeping method is recording your own 20 race cycles My advice and my own system 1 Bet 2 horses 2 Bet a low odds horse ,Bet a longer price horse 3 If the low odds horse wins take that share and move on If the longer horse wins, collect a good profit 4 Set a goal to just do better than you did your previous 20 race cycle. Even if it is only $1.00. Just make your goal to improve your own ability |
04-10-2019, 01:17 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Maple Ridge, B.C. Canada
Posts: 3,163
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Thanks Bill
Man your thread struck a cord with me. Doc always said if you do not keep written records on wins and losses you will continue to repeat your passed behaviors and things will not change. Also one statement he made to me that I really abide by is " there is nothing wrong with playing a favorite in a race as long as it is NOT the only horse you play in the race " Thank You Bill
Darryl March |
04-10-2019, 06:39 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 340
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Bill, I agree with you.. I was betting 2 horses to win long before Doc sarted in Pirco and when I joined I knew I was right for doing that.
Best to you. Chuck |
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