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Old 10-27-2018, 11:35 AM   #1
chrisl
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Looking for contender selection method

Hello All: It was a few years back that a member shared his method for contender selection. It did work very well. I can't remember it completely. I will give my vague description of it and maybe someone remembers it.
Paceline was last line. Toss any horse out with a morning line of +15/1, 90 days without a race or a very good workout to justify keeping toss it. Then you went to POH and toss entries that were not so many points (4?) of the top horse. Then POR the same rule as POH. Energy the same rule ...You kept the last 4 contenders. If the top two horses were the same as BL/BL and Energy or TPR? Then it was a play....The is the best of my memory. Any help would surely be appreciated..Thanks
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Old 10-28-2018, 11:31 PM   #2
Lefty
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisl View Post
Hello All: It was a few years back that a member shared his method for contender selection. It did work very well. I can't remember it completely. I will give my vague description of it and maybe someone remembers it.
Paceline was last line. Toss any horse out with a morning line of +15/1, 90 days without a race or a very good workout to justify keeping toss it. Then you went to POH and toss entries that were not so many points (4?) of the top horse. Then POR the same rule as POH. Energy the same rule ...You kept the last 4 contenders. If the top two horses were the same as BL/BL and Energy or TPR? Then it was a play....The is the best of my memory. Any help would surely be appreciated..Thanks
Don't remember hat one, but in Follow Up 56(I think) David Barrios came up with what looks like a great Contender selection that even let me pick Pacelines t0day atGPW. Worked well.
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Old 10-29-2018, 10:14 AM   #3
tom
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A quick method that worked well was presented at a Baltimore seminar by William Scott ( a delightful speaker at a couple of seminars!)

Look at the last two races and find the three best Beyer figs (you could obviously use the Sartin Speed figs, but they were not around then).

Now ignore the last two races and find the best three figs of all the remaining races.

You now have 3-6 contenders.

I used that very method for almost 10 years with good results at Finger Lakes.
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Old 10-29-2018, 11:21 PM   #4
Lefty
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Guess there's lots of ways o do it. The main thing is getting it down to 5 or six and having he winner in the machine most of the time.
Luck and skill to all...
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Old 10-30-2018, 09:31 AM   #5
raceman5
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Lefty

you're probably going to have to do better than that being the av race nowadays has 7-8 horses.

Bob
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Old 10-30-2018, 01:09 PM   #6
Lefty
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races 6-7 horses I try to get it down to 4.
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Old 10-31-2018, 11:22 AM   #7
reckless
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IMO, the very best contender selection process for these BC races have been to choose only definitive Grade 1 winners, especially in the Turf races and the Classic.

I only make class exceptions in the 2-year-old races, both dirt and turf, because of the limited graded race opportunities.

After I settle on my win contenders, I look for the best race at today's distance. Prior success at Churchill Downs helps, of course.

And, I will favor those final contenders with the better late pace, and SP, capabilities.

Good luck to everyone.
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Old 11-01-2018, 10:56 AM   #8
chrisl
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Thank You everyone
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