chuckg - October Learn to Win

[chuckg]

Paceline selection process for October.

1. Work up the tandem horses.

I will look for horses that ran against each other in the last or next to last race.

Horses to key into are:

a. ones that finished second but beat the other horses in the tandem handily. Winner of the race should not be in this one.

b. A horse that has beaten another horse twice.

c. Horse that finished second by about a length and the winner is in today's race.

For these horses I give the lead horse the last paceline and give the second horse a line that just beats the lead horse. This could come from anywhere in the PPs.

2. Click on the last line for each of the rest of the field. Then view the Total Energy and the Combined Pace Rating screens to get an idea of which horses "should be" the fastest.

3. Move to the BL/BL screen and, starting with the bottom horse, verify that its last line is representative or comparative. I will change to an earlier line to match the distance and/or surface of today's race.

4. Move to the Energy screen and compare the %Med of each horse to the %Med of the Tier one horse and to the %Med of a small sample of winners of past races at today's distance at today's park. If a horse has a paceline from a good past race that matches the %Med of previous winners I will select it instead.

5. Make a quick run through the entries looking for first call leaders. Click on the second lowest first fraction time on the theory that a horse will only run as fast as it has to.

6. Toggle back and forth between the Original screen and the BL/BL screen matching how each horse runs against this first fraction pace. If the line I selected is slower the the projected pace I will subtract one SR point for every 2/10 second that it will have to run faster at the onset. This is just a mental note or scratch pad routine. Mainly it is used to eliminate each horse that cannot or has not run to the pace of the lead runners in today's race.

7. By now I should have the winner in my final 4 or 5 contenders. (I did in 18 of 20 from September.) Go back to the BL/BL. If a tandem race, note the tandem horse, it could be an automatic bet. Look at the second to fifth tier horses for ranks of 1 in Fractal N or 3 or 4 in Factor W. Look for odds of 4 to 1 or better.

8. This month, ideally, bet two horses to win 60/40 and include the winner in the bet.

[chuckg]

$20 to win on 4
$80 to place on 4

Here is a 6 to 1 (ML) Presser on top of a few earlies on the BL/BL screen. Ranks 1 in Fractal N and 3 in Factor W. Even money favorite is a layoff horse without a dominating best of last three line.

[chuckg]

Never Involved...
The Horse got paid $540 today for jogging in fourth, 16 lengths behind.



Normally a good in the money candidate, the horse I chose listed 7 Shows and 1 Place out of its last 10 races.

It would have paid $15.60 to win. If it actually ran hard today it may or may not have had a chance. That is why I bet it to Place. Regardless of what this particular horse did, the race itself fits a pattern - High Priced Counter Energy in a Short Field.



In short fields the obvious earlies get bet down to pennies. In this race we had two at even money. If I see this same pattern again I will make the same bet. One win would cover seven losses and I'd still have a slight profit.

[chuckg]

$30 to win on 4
$70 to place on 4



Lone S. #7 ran late last race and put up a huge SR. I'm considering that to be an abnormality instead of a runing style change. Big numbers in the 1 slot on BL/BL usually come in third more times than win.

[chuckg]

Fourthplaceitis.

Here is why it is important to get the run style right. My lone S went out and led the field to the 3/4 pole. Although I see nothing but Late Blue in the PPs, the horse actually broke 1st and 2nd in its last two races. I'm sure that was a clue. The second line back would have predicted what the horse would do tonight.



Problem: Is anyone in the habit of selecting the worst of the last three lines? Was this one really a legitimate contender?

Solution: Add a second horse to the win bet.

After thinking it over during an hour drive this afternoon here is the position I took on this race in real life. (I'm a two buck chuck for now, still learning.)

[chuckg]

$60 on 12 to win
$40 on 9 to win

Taking the top two finishers out of their last race. Same distance same track.

[chuckg]

A textbook example.

Use the low odds horse at 5/2 or better for 60% and the high odds horse (the one I really want to win) for 40%.

[chuckg]

$60 on 10 to win
$40 on 9 to win

In my last 20 race cycle the low odds horse in Tier One only won once but placed often. Usually the place horse has the opposite energy style from the winner. So, let's hide the 2-1 favorite in Tier One and use the 10 as the counter energy horse. I'm not using the 2 because it lost to the 10 last time out and looks to be too far away from the pace to close.

[chuckg]

An $8.40 win



Any of the three counter energy horses in this race would have paid at least a show price.

[chuckg]

$60 on 2 to win
$40 on 4 to win

Hiding the 8/5 entry. I used the 5th line back for the 2 to verify that 92 SR at today's distance. I chose the 4 as the high odds horse because it is massive early against today's pace and shortening from 6f to 5.5f.