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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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09-02-2018, 08:55 PM | #11 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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darn it
Well, it was a beautiful race. These DMR turf races are fun but tricky
I went with the 5 instead of the 8 and I made a progressive WPS on the 3 The 8 wins but the 10 nipped my 3 and ruined my exact I only picked up some change on my show bet on the 3 So close Thanks for looking in |
09-02-2018, 09:05 PM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Pembroke Pines, FL
Posts: 170
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I don't want this to appear to be red boarding but I did this race on paper about an hour before post time. The key to the pace line selection is whether to trust the Woodbine line for the eventual winner. Having read several recent posts by you as well as re-reading some of FTL's posts I have noticed that I have been rigidly taking the last line when it is a + or (+) line although I know that it fails to truly represent a horse's ability. That would have been the case with this winner as it came out of a very slow race over a Yielding surface. Although it is a + race it penalizes a horse who demonstrates far greater ability as evidenced by its other grass efforts. Granted Woodbine is a very fast surface but he demonstrated true class beating a solid field in the Charlie Barley Stakes on Queens Plate Day. I opted to pick the Woodbine line and he became the #1 TPR as a result and an automatic win wager. The #11 although a little short on class came up second in TPR and would have been my second win wager.
I didn't wager a penny on the race for the record but in making these "corrections' in my line selection several other nice winners would have moved up in ranking as FTL contenders thus making them more attractive bets. The beauty of the game is we continue to learn every day!! Neil |
09-02-2018, 09:10 PM | #13 |
So Cal Al
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Bill:
I made the same mistake in paceline selection by not using the 10 horse too. His maiden win at DMR puts him right there. Got the winner, but missed the exacta |
09-03-2018, 08:07 AM | #14 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
Thanks for the race review. I like your thinking. I overrated 1 horse # 3 who had multiple wins but discounted another horse that also had multiple wins #10 It was a learning race for sure . Bill |
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