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Old 05-21-2010, 06:25 PM   #1
chardale
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Join Date: Apr 2010
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Friday night Hollywood selections

1st -- 4 - 5
2nd -- 2 - 5
3rd -- 1 - 8
4th -- 5 - 7
5th -- 2 - 3
6th -- 9 - 12
7th -- 1 - 3
8th -- 3 - 9
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Old 05-21-2010, 10:00 PM   #2
SilentRun
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I'll look at HOL as long as I can stay awake....

I am not sure about the first the 4 won last race just by a head..contentious
now running at CL40K.

The 5 was ITM at G1 but only 1 weak Turf race.
You can't ignore the 1 but I like the 2 and 6 over the 4 or 5.

Ernie

Results: 1-4-2 chalk

Last edited by SilentRun; 05-21-2010 at 10:17 PM.
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Old 05-21-2010, 10:29 PM   #3
SilentRun
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R2 5 and 6 Ernie

#4 chalk wins again

Last edited by SilentRun; 05-21-2010 at 10:40 PM.
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Old 05-21-2010, 11:21 PM   #4
SilentRun
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R3 I liked the 1-3-7 and TX at 2MTP flashed 3-1-2-7 and my stats show
that the top 4 TX have an exacta hit rate near 70%. I also mentioned that my
exacta hit rate has improved and this is an example: #2 was an RDSS toss
so 1-3-7 was my best choice. Ex: 1/3

Ernie
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Old 05-22-2010, 02:04 AM   #5
ranchwest
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Nice picks.
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Old 05-22-2010, 08:52 AM   #6
Ted Craven
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chardale, a few nice hits there after east cost bedtime!

Ernie, so with an exacta hit rate near 70% top 4 Tx, you only need to hit EVEN odds to about break even (e.g. bet $12, receive $24). By even modest handicapping and employing some wheels to exclude horses who just can't win but may place, you've got a nice little system there...

By tracking minimum and maximum exacta combo payouts, you can skip some of the lowest paying ones, or dutch them with a bit extra where a favourite looks like a lock. It would seem that a profit is rather hard to avoid.

Remember Doc's ancient goal exhorting a 63% hit rate betting 2 horses. If you have a near 70% hit rate betting between 3 and 4 horses, you need only determine your minimum and average exacta odds required, apply normal methodology handicapping to try to cut down on the number of bets, then wait.

Ted
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Old 05-22-2010, 09:04 AM   #7
chardale
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Thanks buddy
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Old 05-22-2010, 09:41 AM   #8
SilentRun
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
chardale, a few nice hits there after east cost bedtime!

Ernie, so with an exacta hit rate near 70% top 4 Tx, you only need to hit EVEN odds to about break even (e.g. bet $12, receive $24). By even modest handicapping and employing some wheels to exclude horses who just can't win but may place, you've got a nice little system there...

By tracking minimum and maximum exacta combo payouts, you can skip some of the lowest paying ones, or dutch them with a bit extra where a favourite looks like a lock. It would seem that a profit is rather hard to avoid.

Remember Doc's ancient goal exhorting a 63% hit rate betting 2 horses. If you have a near 70% hit rate betting between 3 and 4 horses, you need only determine your minimum and average exacta odds required, apply normal methodology handicapping to try to cut down on the number of bets, then wait.

Ted
Yes, that is basically what I am doing. First I get my top 5 RDSS contenders
and use them in conjunction with the 4 top TX horses at 2 MTP or even 1 MTP.
I try to eliminate the TX non contender(s) and lock onto 2 promising TX horses.
I generally use 1 or 2 RDSS horse (not shown on TX) and make my best exacta
decision. When I win an exacta it usually includes 2 matching RDSS and TX horses.
This has been working out well and I am improving my technique.
The energy panel data (T.E, E/Ep, L/Ep and TPP) along with
the early late graph (E/L) also plays a major factor in my analysis.

I need to compile a more specific exacta hit rate as I have about 650 -700
races to draw upon. At this point I estimate the exacta hit rate is between
65% - 70%.
Try it on paper, as it is a different approach and it takes some
time to get used to.

Ernie
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