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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 06-19-2018, 09:26 PM   #11
stugots119
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HI Tim, Do you have a cutoff for a layoff and how far down will you go to select a line? Have you done well selecting layoff horses? Thanks
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Old 06-19-2018, 10:19 PM   #12
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What is the minimum comparable distance/conditions do you require per race?? For example I did a 6 F sprint race over the weekend that had 11 horses entered. Out of the 11 only 6 had a comparable distance and ran 90 days or less. The other 5 were either over 90 days or only ran route races 8f.
I’m a little confused by your question.
It seems your concern is that not enough horses were contenders. Well, the easiest way to find a winner is to eliminate the losers.

Bill V recently posted a race. You can find it here. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11676
Below is how I looked at the race.
As you will see, I had just ONE CONTENDER, which also happened to be a lone early horse.
It won at odds of 3/1.

Trust me when I tell you that this is a real oddity. Seldom will you find a race where you can get the field down to just one contender, but it certainly doesn’t hurt to eliminate as many non-contenders as possible.


Here are the “FTL Guidelines”

#3 has not raced in 225 days, OUT
#2 and #6 both have a ML of 20/1 or greater, OUT

#1 – LINE 2 (a + line), line one was wrong surface (turf)
#4 – NO LINE – last race was the same class, distance and surface and was a “0” race.
#5 – NO LINE – horse only shows turf races(wrong surface)
#7 – NO LINE – only race in the last 90 days is a sprint(wrong distance)
#8 – NO LINE – last race is a “0” race with no excuse
#9 – NO LINE – last race is at same distance, surface and class and is a “0” race


For more information on picking lines and contenders just click on this link.
http://http://paceandcap.com/forums/...ad.php?t=10373
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Old 06-19-2018, 10:51 PM   #13
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Thanks FTL I appreciate it. The only question I have is the #8 horse. Would't you select the 2nd line which was a + race at 8.5 F at the same track 69 days ago??
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Old 06-20-2018, 01:36 AM   #14
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Thanks FTL I appreciate it. The only question I have is the #8 horse. Would't you select the 2nd line which was a + race at 8.5 F at the same track 69 days ago??
No. As I said in my above post, in the horses last race at the same distance, surface and class the horse ran a "0" race with no excuse for the poor showing. Following the guidelines this means you do not go back any further and the horse is eliminated as a contender, therefore, it does not get a line.
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Old 06-20-2018, 08:40 AM   #15
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Hi John. I don't have a line drawn in the sand when it comes to looking at lay off horses. In general I have found that the majority of the lay off horses that survive my analysis have last raced within 180 days of todays race. As usual there are always some exceptions [usually very high class animals]. As far as what line I use it depends on the horse I'm dealing with. The better the horse the more flexible I am. This is especially true with turf horses that take the winter off and don't return until the Spring. As far as a success rate goes most of these types generally win around 10% but can and do complete some very nice ex and tri pay offs. Just keep in I'm only talking about a relatively small amount of lay off horses. Most lay off horses don't survive my initial analysis. The point I was making is I don't toss any horse without giving it at least a cursory look especially if playing exotic wagers.
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Old 06-20-2018, 09:01 AM   #16
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I myself would have considered the # 8 as a contender stugots119, whether I would have played it or not I can't honestly say after the fact.


This #8 would have been a contender for the master "Jim Bradshaw" and if it would be a contender than it would be for me. Coincidentally while helping a Canadian friend I specifically made this point.


According to Bradshaw (the match up expert) anytime you have a race of all S type horses the advantage goes to early horses. In this race that's the # 1 & # 8. The master wins another with the # 1 , just another reason not to throw out the # 8. Additionally the 8 is highly ranked on RX 1, 2,& 3. Ranked high on EPR which meets Bradshaw's criteria.

Another recent race similar to this was the 1st race on Belmont day 9 Jun 18 made up of all late horses or OTE , same outcome which I brought this to the attention as a teaching point to my Canadian friend.


As far as contenders each individual has to find what works for them and has the winner in the top 4 at least 85% of the time. I can do that in less than a minute or two and than proceed from there.


The # 8 in this race definitely would have been a contender for me. I don't have all the information to make a decision to bet it or not. I do see he was recently claimed and perhaps that's the reason for his last race declined or had a problem during the race but he definitely was and would be a contender for me.



I might add that just by the nature of the game when it comes to payoffs both to the player and the connections many horses have to have so called zero races, after all these races aren't limited to 4 starters etc. Zero races can be caused by many factors besides form itself.


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 06-20-2018 at 09:06 AM.
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Old 06-20-2018, 10:29 AM   #17
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Actually here is something to note on the winner of this race, the #1 .


He ran an ugly race or 0 race in his 5th race and after a layoff of 49 days won his next race (Line four) HMM? How does that happen after an ugly 0 last race? And at a whopping $ 48 dollars or so. So much for hard and fast inflexible rules.


To me this is just another example of cherry picking after the fact. I'm always 100% after the race but never seem to get paid for that. Where the money is earned is the decisions made before post time and the betting of one's analysis.

Best of luck,
Mitch44
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Old 06-20-2018, 11:15 AM   #18
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I would also have made the 8 a contender in the race. Although the last line is a 0 race it came after a 49 day lay off and at what appears to have been at a level above todays race.That makes 2 excuses for me to excuse the last and keep the horse. This is in no way implying that the horse would have been a bet when all was said and done. We must also remember that horses are not machines and even the best will throw a clunker in with no apparent excuse. This is why Doc went to the best of the last 3 over riding the older last line except for valid reason practice.
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Old 06-20-2018, 02:23 PM   #19
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Lay offs

In Follow up 81 page 34-35 Doc addresses the issue regarding Layoffs.

In one or more other Issues he talked about long odds horses.
Basically what he said was that if a horse ends up in your top 3 or 4 final contenders ( regardless of ML odds OR days off ) and if the Odds are acceptable then make a bet.

I agree with Tim and Mitch that if you eliminate a horse too early in your handicapping process you are going to miss out on a lot of very nice priced horses.
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Old 06-20-2018, 07:44 PM   #20
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Actually here is something to note on the winner of this race, the #1 .


He ran an ugly race or 0 race in his 5th race and after a layoff of 49 days won his next race (Line four) HMM? How does that happen after an ugly 0 last race? And at a whopping $ 48 dollars or so. So much for hard and fast inflexible rules.


To me this is just another example of cherry picking after the fact. I'm always 100% after the race but never seem to get paid for that. Where the money is earned is the decisions made before post time and the betting of one's analysis.

Best of luck,
Mitch44
Well, the first thing is, I did not cherry pick the race. Bill V posted it, not me.

This is in line with you deciding to look at this horse going from a "0" race in line 5 to a winning race in line 4. I didn't pick it, you did. But since you did pick it, I'll respond.

It certainly helps to be able to read the Racing Form and intepret what it is telling you and since you seem puzzled by what happened, I'll help you out.

I have attached the PP's for the #1 horse (the horse in question here).
In red, I have circled races from DMR.
In black, I have circled races from SA.
It is clear to any astute reader that races from DMR can be thrown out. It appears for whatever the reason the horse doesn't like the track.
On the other hand, the horse appears to like SA.
So, when looking at the horse's race at SA in line 7 for $25,000 and showing its' customary early speed and then looking at its' next race at SA in line 4 for $12,500 (half the previous value at SA)it is little wonder that the horse won off by almost 5 lengths. Naturally, one would have to see the rest of the field in the race on line 4, but this reading of the Racing Form answers the question for today's #1 horse on that day.
Its' winning race in line 4 is just NOT the mystery you make it out to be!
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