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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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10-07-2018, 04:49 PM | #11 |
Grade 3
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: Westbrook, Maine
Posts: 63
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Good call Bill
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10-07-2018, 06:24 PM | #12 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Thank you
I played and hit the pick 3 Thanks Navyvet for the race
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10-07-2018, 06:34 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,125
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Nice hit Bill.
__________________
Trust but verify |
10-07-2018, 06:56 PM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,125
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This race was a very nice teaching race. Hopefully those who viewed this thread observed that there is more to handicapping a race then blindly accepting the program readouts. Thanks for posting it Navy.
Tim
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Trust but verify |
10-07-2018, 06:58 PM | #15 |
Grade 3
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: Westbrook, Maine
Posts: 63
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Good Play Bill. Glad I could play. I called today my final exam. I would have hit 5 races but would have bet 3 as exactas. 3 races I did not like. It was a great day I'll be in for the money next week and per everyone's suggestion I will start slow. 1 maybe 2 tracks tops and for now weekends only. Are there any Handicaps left this year?
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10-07-2018, 07:07 PM | #16 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
Here are the PP's if anybody wants to add their opinions It would be very welcome. |
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10-07-2018, 07:08 PM | #17 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Horses
5 6 7
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10-07-2018, 09:53 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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last two races- look at shift in energy exertions
Winning horse had 2 month freshening, then
Look at the shift in energy exertions in last two races leading up to today's race Last race- Horse chased against a very fast early pace fractions Race after freshening- horse ran late |
10-07-2018, 09:55 PM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Glad that you out of Hospital, Bill
Bill,
Happy that you are back at the track.... Best of health to you...... Take Care |
10-08-2018, 12:24 PM | #20 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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Congratulations, Bill. That was a good winner. Surprised that it paid that much, but I'm glad it did for you.
navyvet, let me follow up on the point I made yesterday. Drosselmagic would have been worth a small win or win/place bet at 30-1 or maybe even 20-1. A horse doesn't need much going for it when the potential payoff is large. However, he went off at 12-1 and would not have been worth a bet at those odds. Drosselmagic is a sprinter stretching out for the second time and had shown some early speed in his last race. Maybe he catches a soft pace, gets an easy lead and keeps going. As it turned out, he was hung wide on the clubhouse turn, had to challenge a brisk second fraction and faded to a distant fifth. Bill and Tim both had it exactly right. Bill singled the winner in his Pick 3 and Tim "wagercapped" the race, hiding/ignoring the odds-on favorite and playing two other contenders. Still, when RDSS shows you a big-odds horse with some "color in its corollaries," so to speak, sit up and take a closer look. The Follow Ups are replete with Doc Sartin making that point. And that's what you did. Good on you. |
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