Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

[RichieP]

I have an E-Book that all aspiring matchers need to check out.I picked this up over at the Htr board and a big thank you to Mel Moser who provided it!!

I won't say anything else regarding the book so as not to contaminate anyone with my take on it.

While not an easy read it is a must read in my opinion.

You can find the free book at this link:
http://www.homebased2.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8273

Once again sharpening one's matching skills has very little to do with numbers. It is all about preparing one's mind.

It is all about creating for it a blueprint for success.
Richie

[RichieP]

An excerpt from the paper:

[lsosa54]

Author is ex CIA and still consults:

http://www.zoominfo.com/people/Heuer..._56385916.aspx

[VoodooFan]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Once again sharpening one's matching skills has very little to do with numbers. It is all about preparing one's mind.

It is all about creating for it a blueprint for success.

Richie

Rich, when you do your cd/dvd, this should be one of the last points with good portion of example races to illustrate this very important point about having very little to do with numbers.

It may be THE most important point of all.

Also re-stating those techniques in "When things go bad".

These two, seem to be a more advanced MatchUp series.

I think these has to be the most advanced and important part of the MatchUp to get to that "Bradshaw zone" more frequently and consistantly.

I think the "Minds Eye" touched on that.

VoodooFan

[RichieP]

Everyone,
Please read the excerpt in post #2 in this thread. If matchers (beginners especially) can put themselves in the following mindset they will be MUCH better prepared to have profitable sessions of play:

It is ok to not understand a race. We are not the Hat. By passing a race our minds do not connect with right away we do 2 important things:
1) Save money on a bet that would be questionable at best regardless of outcome.
2) Conserve mental energy that will be much better spent on races that do talk to us right away.

It is ok to not understand a race. Jim told me a story of a friend he helped with the matchup. He told me the fellow was a very good matcher but would wind up draining all his energy and would be shot for days after matching. That gentleman has posted here a while back and is welcome to post his feedback here.

Conserving mental energy and waiting for races that make sense after that all important first pass through the horses (remember the first impression stuff??) was a key reason Jim right away started harping on the importance of spot plays to me.

All this ties together with matching up horses/races successfully. To give yourself the best chance for a successful session one has to have a game plan. Without a game plan chances are great that the mental energy available for a session will dissipate quickly if all races are treated the same.

I will spell out a game plan that especially beginners will appreciate as being simple to execute later on in the Cd's. For now I am hoping folks will understand the importance of having one and in the game plan I will describe a key element is to recognize QUICKLY that the little voice is NOT feeling the race being looked at.

My personal game plan centers around 2 key elements of Jim's matchup concepts:
1) What running style is going to win today's race. Early or O.T.E.
2) The first call and a need to lead early horse with a projected first call pace.

If that first pass through the horses does not leave me with confident answers/understanding of those 2 elements my plan is very simple: Pass and move on. More on all this later.

Though most of this E-book is way over my head there are definitely parts that are hitting home in a big way. The quote in post #2 so far hits hardest for me after thinking back on HOW Jim taught me and how he taught me to play from virtually day 1.

"Rich I can't pass a race. To me that's giving up and I can't do that. That is why I play every race. I match horses for fun. If you want to match horses to make money do not do as I do and play every race. Wait and spot play."
Jim Bradshaw

[Charlie D]

1) Save money on a bet that would be questionable at best regardless of outcome.
2) Conserve mental energy that will be much better spent on races that do talk to us right away

The next Step

[VoodooFan]

Originally Posted by RichieP

It is ok to not understand a race. We are not the Hat. By passing a race our minds do not connect with right away we do 2 important things:
1) Save money on a bet that would be questionable at best regardless of outcome.
2) Conserve mental energy that will be much better spent on races that do talk to us right away.

Originally Posted by RichieP

It is ok to not understand a race. Jim told me a story of a friend he helped with the matchup. He told me the fellow was a very good matcher but would wind up draining all his energy and would be shot for days after matching.

Originally Posted by RichieP

"Rich I can't pass a race. To me that's giving up and I can't do that.
Jim Bradshaw

Too many great points. ENERGY DRAINING AND NOT PASSING. "BULLSEYE" ..... on a major problem to overcome and it's solution.

Being drained for days, that's exactly what happens over and over.

Studying the MatchUp, a natural urge is to be like THE HAT.

And if you ever heard him on audio or at a seminar going over a race and throwing out horses as fast as you can blink, it's even worse. Then ,"Be like Mike" turns into "Be like THE HAT".

After all, it's THE MATCHUP.

Almost like THE MATCHUP and THE HAT are fused together....you can't do one without the other....a costly and potentially fatal flaw in thinking cause we can NEVER be THE HAT.

Unless you got some Native American in you and access to applied spirituality and visions of said peoples, have a I.Q. in the high 180's and have extremely powerful and superior observation skills like Sherlock Holmes when watching horses, to see things even the horses owner, trainer and others miss on equine behavior, simple things, you might have a shot, but no guarantee.

A very eye opening post. Prying open our tight shut eyes with a Hat sized crowbar.

Now, the discipline to act on these great solutions.

What else is there to say?

VoodooFan

[gl45]

I have been reading the e-book. A must read for handicapper to sharpen their analytical skill.
The analytical problem with respect to horse #6, Fly Over Tahoe, in EMD race #7 on 8/17; is not so much whether Fly Over Tahoe would win, as when or under what conditions this might happen.

[Charlie D]

If that first pass through the horses does not leave me with confident answers/understanding of those 2 elements my plan is very simple: Pass and move on. More on all this later.

Richie


Can you desrcibe this process in more detail or give an example as i think i maybe forcing when i should be passing

Cheers

Charlie