Handicapping Blind - Using Velocity PoH/TPR/Primary screens

[papajohn3times]

Hello Mr. Mitch
Thanks so much for the charts! I have been taking some time off just to refocus a little I have been compiling data on Bill's TOP 5 last line TPR'S. The result's of 90 races not including any Maiden races is pretty amazing. Only 4 races did not have the top 5 tpr's, ep was dominant in all but 16 races(using top 3 ep's) I also have been trying to grasp more of the Match-up and it has been slow but sure for me.
Could you either pm me or better post you're procedure's when first looking at a race,how you pick contenders,then pacelines and finally what read-outs ynou concentrate on. Tim speaks highly of you and he has invited me to call him which I will do very soon
Again,thanks so so much!
Papa John

[Mitch44]

Hi Papa John,
My procedure is as follows: I would recommend you start with pace lines because this is a big factor for failure. I follow the Sartin recommended procedure to pick lines. I pick the best line of the last 3 races at a similar distance and surface. The key here is similar distance and surface I didn’t say the last 3 races nor did Sartin. Far too many only look at the last 3 races. WRONG!!!!
Now what is a similar distance? A race preferably within ½ of a furlong and no more than 1 F. More than that will make the horse too fast in the readouts and will destroy your readouts. The reason is that the shorter the race the faster they are ran. An ex. would be a 1 ¼ race and you use a 1 1/16 line. If that takes me to line # 6 than that is where I go. The horse may have been running on the wrong surface or distance because of an inept trainer or no races have been written for the horse lately.

On surface I will interchange a syn. or sloppy line for a turf race but only if the horse doesn’t have 3 turf lines near the distance. I.e. has 3 turf sprints but no route lines and today is a route. Has proven can run on the turf but today is a route, then I’ll use a syn. or sloppy route.

On dirt I only use fast or good lines, period. If today’s track is sloppy I still use fast lines as my experience has been the best horse still wins, regardless of the surface condition. This muddler thing is an old wife’s tale that doesn’t water. People lock into a belief like that in their mind, then can’t get rid of it.

I use those guidelines in conjunction with the total energy of the line and the best (lowest) preceptor rating. Far too many don’t make proper use of the preceptor. Essentially it’s an old line score from much earlier programs that measure each line and shows which is best. Look up what the definition of it is on the site. Lines being looked at visually can be very deceptive and one can make mistakes visually, as is the same with visual running styles. With the Tot. Energy and preceptor given for every race, I just don’t know how so many can’t pick correct lines, plus using the “Doc’s” guidelines of best of last 3 at a similar dis. Far too many are hung up on the last line. The last line was always rated to get an idea of its form.

Speaking of form the Tot. Energy and Preceptor is excellent for evaluating the horse as to its best dis. and surface, and current form. Are these two tools declining or improving?

Lastly when in doubt run two different lines through the program and see which comes up better on BLBL when the preceptor is very close or total energy, and you’re unsure of which line is the correct one. The program is smarter than you and this stuff is like an open book test in that it does allows you to cheat.

Contenders: The reason I covered pace line selection first is that most need the practice of picking the correct pace line. The “Doc” recommended using the top 5 Total Energy horses, therefore if you pick a line for every horse you’ll become an expert at picking lines and also keep the best 5. Now there are other tools to do that and the whole process can be speeded up if one can get the correct 5 from the start. However you need to keep records on this, preferably your own records because it’s greatly affected by the lines you pick. These two things are interchangeable, that is contenders and pace lines.

You can use TPR for contenders however you’re only going to know by your own records weather its better than Tot. Energy. And two different people can get different results because of the way they pick lines. Far too many players keep large data bases on useless stuff rather than on the stuff they need to keep records on. Now some of those data bases can provide some nuggets to someone like Bill V. because he is beyond most of these basics. For others forget about it. Record keeping will out produce large data bases.

It’s hard to simplify this stuff so I apologize for this long write up.

Lastly on readouts I always start with TPR as its gives me insight for my analysis. Most will find it more understandable because it’s on a scale of 100. Not so with FPS but I do understand it and use it also along with other screens. WARNING!!! Don’t assume because Preceptor is so good picking pace lines that it can be used for a selection tool. There are much better readouts in RDSS that will get you the winner that Preceptor. But as far as determining form once down to your final 5 use it to determine if the horse is properly placed and if its form is declining or improving, as far as readout interpretation. Another great tool for that. Once again to know that you need to keep records and find the best factors.
The top 3 TPR or Total Energy has a very high % of winners in the top 3, and if you are a two horse better you’re in the game or ballpark. Far too many are lazy and don’t or refuse to keep records.

Best of luck. The definition of luck is preparation meeting destiny.
Mitch 44

[raceman5]

Nice job Mitch. Clear and concise.

Bob

[papajohn3times]

Thanks so much Mitch! Great response and I will certain;y absorb it all!
Papa John

[papajohn3times]

Hi Mitch
Again thanks so much for the procedure write up! When you mention record keeping,I know that is different from a individual track profile. Ted was gracious enough to all ow me to test rdss2 but I have been very limited with my playing time. I will return around the 23rd of June. I had to take most of what I did earn in the last 2 months for car repairs,new tires,graduation gifts and a new pool for my grand daughter to enjoy this summer. Thank goodness I won quite a bit from Feb thru Preakness day to be able to do these things.
I would like a little help from you again as to what you monitor. I have been using the charts and have been keepiing track of Belmont but now that Woodbine is is full swing I want to use those races for my model I now monitor CLASS, POST POSITION,NUMBER OF FINAL CONTENDERS(USUALLY 6 OR LESS) THE NUMBER OF THE PACELINE I USED,TOTAL ENERGY,VDC BL BL AND RX3 Anything else I should monitor from my readouts?
As before,thanks so much for ALL your help. Everyone here is great to converse with!
Anything I can do for you or anyone,just let me know, unfortunetely,there is no one here in Michigan that Ted know who I could compare notes or even go to the Racing center with
Papa John

[Mitch44]

Hi Papa John,

1. I would not keep track of post positions as its not a key or primary factor. Nor is the jockey, weight carried etc. Stick to tracking the factors that are in the program.

2. For final contenders I would narrow that to the top five which is what Sartin recommended. Six should only be used if your playing Trifecta's. Actually if your only playing to win you only need 4 contenders, its fairly easy to know who the worst horse is out of top five.
3. The only way your going to know what factors are best is to record or model every factor.(in RDSS) You only have to do this once but it'll clearly distinguish which are the best factors. I specifically can't tell you what factor to record because I don't know your knowledge. I.e. If I were to switch to RDSS 2(test version) I don't know how good CR+ is so I would monitor it and compare it to CR, same for RX1,RX2 & RX3.

The one thing about Sartin programs is there are many screens with numerous readouts and they can be confusing however not to those who do the work. Losers don't do the work and winners do. Every screen provides a piece to the puzzle but you have to know which pieces. Many of the pieces on the screens are for other puzzles and not the one your working on.
Good skill Papa John,
Mitch44

[Lt1]

Hi Papa. I maintain a win and place model for each distance and surface run at the tracks I play. My model contains the winner and place horse rank in ep,lp,cpr,vdc, bl/bl,tt, vdc difference, and finally the %med of both. I also note the track condition. Hope that helps.
Tim G

[papajohn3times]

Thanks guys! I am currently keeping track of most RDSS2 factors and
I am slowly eliminating primary and supplemental factors. For example the Pizzola pf3 in sprints is 1 for 55. Routes it is 4 for. 33 but in turf routes it is better. 8 out of 29
So in reality it is something
I will only monitor in routes on the turf. I rarely plat turf sprints so for me,it isn't a .Viable variable
Thanks again fella'sl
Papa John
I

[Mitch44]

papajohn3times:

Look for factors that are universal to all distances and tracks. I.e. EP and there are others.
These are the nuggets you want to mine that'll up your game. Trust me in that all these factors aren't created equal. I have never considered or would consider PF3 even in routes on the turf.
Your traveling on the right road papajohn3times.
Mitch44

[Lt1]

PAPA remember a model should be simple. As the Doc and Tom Brohamer stated you don't need spread sheets with too many factors. That only confuses the picture. Concentrate on the 1 or 2 factors which have the winner ranked in the top 2 the most. Those are the ones to bet from. I've found the modeling no more then 5 factors is good enough.
Tim G