Feb21 PRX1 Could this be TreeTops day? - Page 3 - Pace and Cap

mowens33 · 02-22-2017, 03:06 PM

With a small field and a bunch of proven loser to make, a straight bet on a favorite or a low odds horse is not my cup of tea.

If I’m going to make a straight bet in a field of known losers I typically go with a lightly raced horse dropping down coming out of a decent POR and in contention at least to the 2nd call, with my preference being to the stretch call. Then most of all I need a price of 5 to 1 or better.

However, since my main plays are pick 4’s and pick 3’s (I play Derby War’s at least twice a week) I am forced to handicap this type all the time.

Mike

Tim Y · 02-22-2017, 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lt1

A win is a win Bill besides all we can do is cap in a consistent manner since we have no control over prices.

Yes you can, by being SELECTIVE the very essence in the game of gambling. The ongoing simplistic idea that this is a single game. Handicapping is NOT wagering never was never will be.

Never wager on situations that the entire crowd figured out. Wait 20 mins and there will be another one

Lt1 · 02-22-2017, 10:47 PM

Tim I was referring to how the crowd bets not on how we would actually wager. You are correct wagercapping is the name of the game. But even a winning method of wagering is useless if we don't have the winner in the mix.
Tim G

Jeebs · 03-07-2017, 11:11 AM

Tree Top Lover is entered in the 1st at Parx today. 8/5 ML favorite from the rail in a 7-horse field with a single FTS. Let's see if we can beat this one again today!

Lt1 · 03-07-2017, 11:33 AM

As usual he ranks 2 on BL/BL and 1 on RX3. He won't pay much if he wins so I would look at the 4-7 with the 5 as the counter energy horse. Wouldn't be a surprise if a FTS wins. I would throw the 3 in of te 2 fts.
Tim G

The Pook · 03-07-2017, 11:38 AM

Could THIS be Tree Tops day? Same kind of scenario as last time. Trees a lone early in sprints. Last time the 6 an early router hassled him and took the win. Today the 6 again is an early router.

I have no idea but I will root for the Tree. Could be Tree, could be the 6, could be the 7 who keeps playing around with Tree, or could be the FTS.
Interesting to watch. Thanks for pointing the race out Jeebs.

Pook

Jeebs · 03-07-2017, 11:46 AM

Fulcrum horse is the #1... 22.9/47.6... EPR 89.0

Lines & Run Styles
#1 - Line 1. Line 2 is that insane -40 TV, which will overestimate this one. Can't give a 0-for-13 chalk that much credit. Line 3 is 108 days old and is virtually comparable to Line 1 on TE. Early - TE 166.0
#2 - No Line. 0-for-19 life and never competitive against today's pace or faster.
#3 - FTS.
#4 - Line 1. Slower pace than today's fulcrum, but as demonstrated in Line 2 (the -40 TV problem again), this one is capable of running against today's fulcrum. Also showed early tendencies last out. Could this one be the one to gang up on #1? Early - TE 164.5.
#5 - No Line. 0-for-13 and never competitive vs. fulcrum or faster.
#6 - Line 4 projected. Route to sprint, and Line 1 is a plus/zero. Felt that if this horse is going to contend early, it will need to run a faster TE, hence Line 4. Hard to see this one figuring but this one could complicate life for the #1 up front if #4 doesn't. Early - TE 164.0.
#7 - Line 2. Tandem best finisher vs. the #1 last out and a multiple tandem winner vs. others. Line 2 could be enough to reverse the tandem, but just like #1, doesn't win. 0-for-12 LT with 4 OTB finishes. Depending on the tote action, this one may actually warrant a play but I'm not holding my breath. Sustained Presser - TE 165.5.

Jeebs · 03-07-2017, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Pook

Could THIS be Tree Tops day? Same kind of scenario as last time. Trees a lone early in sprints. Last time the 6 an early router hassled him and took the win. Today the 6 again is an early router.

I have no idea but I will root for the Tree. Could be Tree, could be the 6, could be the 7 who keeps playing around with Tree, or could be the FTS.
Interesting to watch. Thanks for pointing the race out Jeebs.

Pook

I selected Line 4 for the #6 because the TE on Line 1 would likely put it out of total contention. It will need a 3F boost on velocity to last if that's even possible. It's two sprint races do nothing to make the heart go aflutter.

I'm doing a first glance of the readouts right now and it's a freaking slobberknocker...

Mitch44 · 03-07-2017, 11:57 AM

I think he's very beatable(Tree Tops) because the last race had to be hard on him and horses of that low class tend not to string good races back to back. Additionally his odds aren't worth the risk reward to bet him. He may not even run in the money. However the money he takes will cause overlays on others if you can find good closers, then the risk reward will be acceptable.

I would wait for this horse to go out of form and come back in while cutting back to 5F race. This also would set up a better price even if 3-1 etc. May get more. Probably would have to ship to Pen. Nat. for a 5F race. If you put him in a stable you must remind yourself why. I.e. correct distance needed and surface etc. Could be a class drop.

Play the role of the trainer. You would be surprised how many inefficient trainers are out there.
I don't have time to look for those 2 horses that can overcome his pace today as I'm busy but good luck.Dental appointment etc.
Mitch44

Jeebs · 03-07-2017, 11:58 AM

The tote may change the story near post time, but this race reeks of "pass"... Unless my sniffer is wrong, the #1 and #7 - at a combined 0-for-25 - are likely going to cannibalize favoritism. #2 and #5 have shown no interest and the #6 is a huge question mark cutting back. That leaves the FTS #3 and the #4 for serious consideration IMO. Again, the odds near post time will paint the picture in this junk race.

Good luck to those who will invest a few bucks.

02-22-2017, 10:47 PM	#23
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,125	Tim I was referring to how the crowd bets not on how we would actually wager. You are correct wagercapping is the name of the game. But even a winning method of wagering is useless if we don't have the winner in the mix. Tim G __________________ Trust but verify

03-07-2017, 11:33 AM	#25
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 9,125	As usual he ranks 2 on BL/BL and 1 on RX3. He won't pay much if he wins so I would look at the 4-7 with the 5 as the counter energy horse. Wouldn't be a surprise if a FTS wins. I would throw the 3 in of te 2 fts. Tim G __________________ Trust but verify

03-07-2017, 11:38 AM	#26
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,535	Could THIS be Tree Tops day? Same kind of scenario as last time. Trees a lone early in sprints. Last time the 6 an early router hassled him and took the win. Today the 6 again is an early router. I have no idea but I will root for the Tree. Could be Tree, could be the 6, could be the 7 who keeps playing around with Tree, or could be the FTS. Interesting to watch. Thanks for pointing the race out Jeebs. Pook Attached Images

03-07-2017, 11:46 AM	#27
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Workup Fulcrum horse is the #1... 22.9/47.6... EPR 89.0 Lines & Run Styles #1 - Line 1. Line 2 is that insane -40 TV, which will overestimate this one. Can't give a 0-for-13 chalk that much credit. Line 3 is 108 days old and is virtually comparable to Line 1 on TE. Early - TE 166.0 #2 - No Line. 0-for-19 life and never competitive against today's pace or faster. #3 - FTS. #4 - Line 1. Slower pace than today's fulcrum, but as demonstrated in Line 2 (the -40 TV problem again), this one is capable of running against today's fulcrum. Also showed early tendencies last out. Could this one be the one to gang up on #1? Early - TE 164.5. #5 - No Line. 0-for-13 and never competitive vs. fulcrum or faster. #6 - Line 4 projected. Route to sprint, and Line 1 is a plus/zero. Felt that if this horse is going to contend early, it will need to run a faster TE, hence Line 4. Hard to see this one figuring but this one could complicate life for the #1 up front if #4 doesn't. Early - TE 164.0. #7 - Line 2. Tandem best finisher vs. the #1 last out and a multiple tandem winner vs. others. Line 2 could be enough to reverse the tandem, but just like #1, doesn't win. 0-for-12 LT with 4 OTB finishes. Depending on the tote action, this one may actually warrant a play but I'm not holding my breath. Sustained Presser - TE 165.5.

02-22-2017, 03:06 PM	#21
mowens33 Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA Posts: 1,035	With a small field and a bunch of proven loser to make, a straight bet on a favorite or a low odds horse is not my cup of tea. If I’m going to make a straight bet in a field of known losers I typically go with a lightly raced horse dropping down coming out of a decent POR and in contention at least to the 2nd call, with my preference being to the stretch call. Then most of all I need a price of 5 to 1 or better. However, since my main plays are pick 4’s and pick 3’s (I play Derby War’s at least twice a week) I am forced to handicap this type all the time. Mike

03-07-2017, 11:11 AM	#24
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Tree Top Lover is entered in the 1st at Parx today. 8/5 ML favorite from the rail in a 7-horse field with a single FTS. Let's see if we can beat this one again today!

03-07-2017, 11:57 AM	#29
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	I think he's very beatable(Tree Tops) because the last race had to be hard on him and horses of that low class tend not to string good races back to back. Additionally his odds aren't worth the risk reward to bet him. He may not even run in the money. However the money he takes will cause overlays on others if you can find good closers, then the risk reward will be acceptable. I would wait for this horse to go out of form and come back in while cutting back to 5F race. This also would set up a better price even if 3-1 etc. May get more. Probably would have to ship to Pen. Nat. for a 5F race. If you put him in a stable you must remind yourself why. I.e. correct distance needed and surface etc. Could be a class drop. Play the role of the trainer. You would be surprised how many inefficient trainers are out there. I don't have time to look for those 2 horses that can overcome his pace today as I'm busy but good luck.Dental appointment etc. Mitch44

03-07-2017, 11:58 AM	#30
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	The tote may change the story near post time, but this race reeks of "pass"... Unless my sniffer is wrong, the #1 and #7 - at a combined 0-for-25 - are likely going to cannibalize favoritism. #2 and #5 have shown no interest and the #6 is a huge question mark cutting back. That leaves the FTS #3 and the #4 for serious consideration IMO. Again, the odds near post time will paint the picture in this junk race. Good luck to those who will invest a few bucks.