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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 06-11-2011, 07:25 PM   #21
smilingtiger
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Here goes. First of all, I wouldn't have bet this race(12F). I wouldn't even have worked it had it not been such a famous race. I did the race though telling PL4(pace launcher 4) it was a 10f race. I had five contenders to put in the program. 3,6,8,9,12 = Ruler, Nehro, Prime, Animal, and Shackleford. I tossed out contenders that had no recent decent form at this level. In a race of this type, I think a horse needs to have good recent form. Then I put in 3 lines for #3, 2 lines for #6, 3 lines for #8, 3 lines for #9, and 3 lines for #12. Not going back farther than the past 3 lines. Now, I got this race pretty much with Ruler On Ice on top. I wouldn't normally have posted here if I hadn't done well here. To get pacelines down to one per horse, I just kicked out all of the horses with lower energy and kept the top energy horse for each entry.
Pacelines: #3 = First line, #6 = First line, #8 = Second Line, #9 = Second Line, #12 = Second line.
Here is how Ruler on Ice did on the readouts: (adjusted) #4 Ttl Energy, #2 Second Call Tied, #2 EPR, #1 LPR, #1 CPR, #1 FW, #1 BL, Odds = Even. So there it is. $51.50
Couldn't believe it.
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Old 06-11-2011, 08:29 PM   #22
BJennet
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Some nice hits

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post


Attachment 22614

Stay Thirsty - who knew!
Hi Ted,

Congratulations - some nice hits available for Sartin players today, including the big race. I'm guessing we would have seen a different winner in the Belmont without the slow fractions provided by a sloppy track, but that kind of improvising is exactly what racing is all about.

Cheers,

B Jennet
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Old 06-12-2011, 10:22 AM   #23
rmath
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Belmont

BJ,
You asked who knew the #2 Stay Thirsty would run. I posted my top 4 VDC on friday #4 first, #2 second and the #6 & #8 tied for third. When I saw Teds post with the #3 as one of the 4 e/l 2.0 horses i figured he may be a win horse as Ted also had him second on RDSS2. Unfortunately I passed the Belmont because I had already hit the 10th race win and perfecta, and I have a rule that after I win big I quit. Most of the time this works out for the best.
rmath
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Old 06-12-2011, 10:38 AM   #24
Ted Craven
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Richard, indeed you did post Stay Thirsty on top!

Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath View Post
FTL, I ran the race using New Pace manual version and got E 12 & 10, L 1 & 9, that is if my figures are right.
But I got completely different horses using best of last 3 comparable in RDSS.
My top 4 were 4,2, 6&8 on Vdc. Looking at this race it appears to be a wide open affair. Will be looking forward to seeing a post from someone using RDSS2.
I should have paid closer attention to you (who knew: you knew!) - together, that accounted for the $72,000 superfecta.

I have heard from one RDSS user who hit the late Pick4 (races 10 - 13) for a share of the $142,000 mutuel.

All in all, a profitable day.

Ted
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Old 06-12-2011, 07:45 PM   #25
Mr.Pagine
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Great Work folks.....

WOW - I passed the day as I saw the track was sloppy. Incredible picking folks.

Congrats and Happy Punting,

JDL
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Old 06-12-2011, 08:03 PM   #26
JimG
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Ted,

Extremely nice handicapping. Well done!

Jim
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Old 06-13-2011, 06:24 AM   #27
jms62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
Here's what it looks like to me, from 2 angles (and with a fair amount of overlap):

Attachment 22591

Attachment 22593

For paceline selection, I erred on the side of more recent and longer distance for these young, improving (or declining?) 3 YOs, thus I was unwilling to go back to best performances earlier in the year, even if I suspected a horse might improve.

The 4 horses in my Primary Contender section are who I think could win the race and finish in-the-money. I would have to also consider Brilliant Speed for ITM, perhaps 3rd or 4th position.

Bets later, depending on odds. I'll take a look at other races on the Belmont undercard.

Good luck everyone!

Ted
Congrats however Why the 8.5 line for Ruler on Ice and 9.0 minimum for everyone else even when he had lines > 8.5. It resulted in Ruler on Ice projecting at his best where others were handicapped by the fact you didn't use 8.5 lines. Regardless, nice get.
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Old 06-13-2011, 08:15 AM   #28
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62 View Post
Congrats however Why the 8.5 line for Ruler on Ice and 9.0 minimum for everyone else even when he had lines > 8.5. It resulted in Ruler on Ice projecting at his best where others were handicapped by the fact you didn't use 8.5 lines. Regardless, nice get.
I recall my thought process for line selection being erring on the side of recency, and distance. There were no other horses where I used lines as far back as March, and one line (for Nehro) were I used an April line. I agree I violated the 'prefer longer distance' rule, but I believe I thought something like: the last line was significantly better Total Energy, and against a faster PoR than the 2nd Sunland line (as was the 3rd back Philly line, as a confirmation of ability) and perhaps best represents what the horse can do today. The Sunland 9f line was a notably slower PoR and thus PoH, so even if he won it, it would not have looked much better, BUT he did have a wonderful power-move in the middle, and he did close to within 1.6 lengths, so perhaps he's not a complete dud at 9f (or longer).

Perhaps that's not completely consistent, but with improving 3YOs, I do like to be guided by more recent signs of improvement/decline and I guess I thought I'd let the software take care of projecting lines to today's distance (if not accurately, to 12f!, then at least equally inaccurately for everyone).

Actually, I thought much better of Nehro and Shackleford's chances among the contenders. It reinforces my observation that most times I have no idea who will win, but I do have pretty good confidence in which horses have a good chance to win, so after that, it's a mutuels game and it pays to be having your bets down when your good price contenders are going to pay well.

The race ended up being somewhat of a crap-shoot after Animal Kingdom's equipment mishap at the beginning - it would have been a different race with him in contention. Sh*t happens - all the time ...

Ted


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