The Preakness

[sureshotlink]

Il have another is flat out a better horse and is getting better!!

Way to go mario.g!!!!!!

[chris]

The clues were there; the key is to see it early in a horses career while you can still make some decent money betting against him. Bodemiester's low odds are all the more reason to assume he's a hanger in the making. True, nobody could stay with him early, but there was one who could outfinish him.

Hanging in a handicapping sense, and I use a narrow definition, is when a horse makes the lead, or has the lead in the vicinity of the eight pole and allows one or more horses to pass him. Often the kiss of death for a favorite. If you're going to bet this race at all, why put a 6/5, 7/5, low odds horse on top? He's already hinted at distance limitations, or he may be on his way to a career as a hanger. Either way, a poor propostion.

I didn't find this race confusing as long as I kept my objective in clear view; I didn't care who won as long as I took some money out of it. Believe there were only three GR I winners in the race and a couple who placed in GR III. I began by anchoring my superfecta with Bodemeister in 2nd place, put the other two GR I winners over and under him, and ran the field in 4th, then I went back and narrowed my 4th choices, to Just horse that I liked and bet it multiple times. Both bets came in. Had there not been a superfecta in this race I just would have bet win and called it a day, but with a horse like Bodemeister in the field I went for a better score.

Regards,
chris

[dugoutgold]

[QUOTE][/QUOTE Bodie the fav had an easy lead in the derby. Yes the splits were fast but CD always rolls the track to make it like a concrete highway on derby day. I also did not use the derby lines. Ill have another made a power move in the paceline I used and the screen shot here supports that. I felt Bodie was suspect so I went with Ill have Another.

[lsosa54]

To me, this was a race to sit back, watch, and enjoy, which I thoroughly did.

Pre race, it was logical to assume that Bode should be able to set slower fractions without any real pressure and maybe hang on at the shorter distance.

Last race speed figs showed Bode and I'll 3 lengths better than Creative. If you went back to Creative's San Felipe, that fig was only one length back and Daddy's Sunland Derby was 2 lengths back - neither was a G1 so keep that in mind. Nothing else in the field was close.

I believe Bill Lyster's chart showed the same 4 horses as "best". Don't know whether those are raw or adjusted mile times.

Assuming Bode did slow the pace down, when you looked at the 1st call positions of both Creative and Daddy, it did not bode well for any improvement - no pun intended. And,yes, I heard ad nauseum about Creative's ground loss. Ask me how many times that has reversed itself with a win in the 23 years I've been at this.

So, it looked like either Bode or I'll. I did not find those odds attractive, so I passed and enjoyed. As a SoCal capper, while I don't know how I feel personally about O'Neill, I have no hesitation to bet one of his runners, but I really felt good about Gutierrez' success. Nice young man.

[lsosa54]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

I don't think anyone can run with Bodemeister.

I'll bet him to show if I can get a 1.15 return.

Well, good call, looks like you got 40%. Hope you put some capital behind it. Nice hit.

[jms62]

[QUOTE=dugoutgold;79938]

[/QUOTE Bodie the fav had an easy lead in the derby. Yes the splits were fast but CD always rolls the track to make it like a concrete highway on derby day. I also did not use the derby lines. Ill have another made a power move in the paceline I used and the screen shot here supports that. I felt Bodie was suspect so I went with Ill have Another.

Great! Please tell me how the Nasdaq will close last Friday?

[trotman]

Sounds like sour grapes jms62, dugoutgold made a point and a good one. Yeah I know Pretension is still running or did he even run but that is what the software spit out.

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by lsosa54

Well, good call, looks like you got 40%. Hope you put some capital behind it. Nice hit.

Thanks, Lou. I made a very large bet using 25% Kelly. Got lucky. :>)

[lsosa54]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

Thanks, Lou. I made a very large bet using 25% Kelly. Got lucky. :>)

Maybe the return came in a bit higher than you expected but no luck - it was a good call and you followed through with it. I sat on my hands as my overall long term record on high percentage show betting tends to hover around break even - up 2%, down 2%, that kind of result.

[Bill Lyster]

FYI, all times in the chart are raw, no adjustments.

Bill