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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 11-19-2017, 07:59 AM   #1
Lt1
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Horses moving up after a maiden win

I decided to do a survey of 100 mdn winners going against winners for the first time. I used Parx.Aqu, Bel, and FL are the tracks surveyed. Here are the results which show how tough it is for mdn winners to beat winners the first time they try.

Horses wins places shows off the board
100 7 13 13 67

Pretty eye catching results

Tim
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Old 11-19-2017, 09:46 AM   #2
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How they accomplished their win is important. If their competitive on readouts such as SR. Tot Energy or TPR they have a shot. Again if they have to prove two things such as up in class and a new distance or surface their poor bets.

Probably the best way to handle them initially is the same as repeaters and that is to ignore the fact they won their last race or broke their maiden. How do they figure against todays competition?

How close are their SR , TPR? How good is the trainer with repeaters? Some are exceptional while others seem to only get one good race out of a horse. Is at the same distance and surface? Today may be just an experiment to see if the horse likes a new dis.,surface ,if it'll rate or if it retains its good condition. These horses that must prove multiple tasks better have good odds to be a bet. Low odds horses that must prove two things are really bad bets.

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Old 11-19-2017, 10:18 AM   #3
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Here is where I pay very close attention to turn time heeding the Docs missive that mdn winners tend to have loafed around the turn in their wins. I find if they don't rank in the top 2 tt ranks for the race they generally lose. Folks can check that out for themselves at the tracks they play. There are always exceptions to any stat but myself, being a percentage player, will go against these unless they are facing a hungry field and price they will pay justify the risk.
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