Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-30-2019, 12:33 PM   #1
gptx
AlwNW1X
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 10
+, (+), 0 Statistics

I came across this quote from FTL back in 2013 while reading through the "Picking Contenders & Pacelines" topic.

"91% of winners came off a “+” or “(+)” line in one of their last two races."

I was wondering if anyone happens to have statistics on this including the third race back also? Or even the last line only?

Thanks, Jess
gptx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2019, 07:42 PM   #2
dlivery
Grade 1
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Thornhill ON
Posts: 437
Talking Last line use

st The last line therapy works best when looking for a contender in the race.
I like this approach as we have the basics to follow along to success
__________________
May all wagers be Winners...
dlivery is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 12:03 AM   #3
gptx
AlwNW1X
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 10
Well it came to me in the middle of the night that what I asked was pretty dumb. By adding the third race back there is only nine percentage points that it could go, and I'm sure it would be very near the top! Duh!


Oh well, as Barney Fife used to say "There's nothing to see here folks, move along."
gptx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 09:07 AM   #4
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
gptx:

I would suggest that you do your own study on this. Do you own study on any stat because one never knowns how the data was collected unless it was your own. or how intelligent the collector was.


The game has changed much since 2013. 91% tends to lock a person into only the top two lines and will cost one many winners, one shouldn't give up any percentage going into a race with a very restricted rule. Gathering of facts can be very subjective and are greatly influenced by the races selected to gather the facts. Then again some can only function with very strict rules and limit their ability by doing so. An example of how data is collected is the following: 3 yr. old's are learning while improving every month because of the maturity factor. In most cases the last line will be the correct line for a 3 year. If a lot of 3 yr. old races are included in a study, survey, or collection it'll skew the results and percentages. In fact in this year Ky. Derby out of 20 horses the last line is correct in at least 17 of those horses or 18 ( can't remember if its 2 or 3 when I looked at it last Saturday).That 85 to 90 % just for that race and age group. Follow that last line theory into races of older horses and your going to encounter many loses by only using the last line.

The majority of times the correct line will be in the last three however there are exceptions to everything. If a horse ran at the incorrect distance or surface that could take one to line 4. Don't forget Sartin's caveat of "at a comparable distance and surface."

Sartin guidelines keep us attuned to one of the most important factors that influence the outcome of a race and that is current condition. The further one goes back the less likely your dealing with the same horse. The object is to pick the line that best represents the horse and what it will do today and or have to do today.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 05-01-2019 at 09:22 AM.
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 10:35 AM   #5
gptx
AlwNW1X
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 10
Thanks Guys,


I definitely understand "comparable surface and distance."

What I am trying to do is settle on a consistent method of paceline selection. I feel I am a little all over the place sometimes (most times) with deciding which line to use.

I feel the direction I want to go is to settle on best of last three comparable surface/distance. Too many times I choose the last line "just" because it was a good line. Then after the fact, reviewing the race I see the second or third race back was a better line but I ignored it "just" because the last line was a good line, and it is ingrained in my mind that the most recent race is best. Too much emphasis on recency. Not that recency is unimportant, just saying that if better lines are not to far back I should consider them.

So with pluses/zeros (colored/underlined in the program) I am thinking that a + or (+) should serve as confidence to go back another line (best last three comparable) if another line is better. And not rigidly stick to the last race only because it shows some kind of decent form at some point in the line.
gptx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 01:04 PM   #6
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
agree

Hi Mitch

I agree with you, That 91%,? I would need to see the records myself to go with that figure blindly.

No two peoples records will ever be 100% alike. Everybody looks at things their own way. We all make judicial decisions on race types, class, surfaces field sizes, etc.

I just took a random 315 race sample from my Santa Anita spreadsheet.

I just grabbed 315 races from various parts of my total SA spreadsheet. I have every class, distance, surface, age, field size represented.
because I record the winner of every race run every day.


In my sample of 315 random races, using FTL's guidelines
to my own interpretation, ( I add a touch more Brohamer)
The winner of the race has a + or (+) a zero 222 times
from the last line or 2nd line if the last line can be excluded.

The percentage is 70%


But these stats include every factor class, distance, surface, age, field size
and are track specific (Santa Anita)

What I am saying is the best way to answer the opening posters question is
"make your own records and be consistent in your own work"


Name:  Brohamer FTL.PNG
Views: 1178
Size:  3.5 KB

Last edited by Bill V.; 05-01-2019 at 01:55 PM.
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 01:06 PM   #7
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
gptx:


Your correct in the direction to go and that is to follow Sartin guidelines to pick a line from the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. Comparable distance means within 1 furlong of todays distance and surface means the same .


FWIW I don't use off track lines except if a turf race and the horse doesn't have a turf line . Sloppy or off tracks lines are interchangeable with turf races but only if no turf lines exist. I don't even use off track lines even when the track is muddy or sloppy. My experience is the best horse still wins. The percentage of actual mudders so to speak is very minimal and more of and old wife's tale than actual fact.


As far as the X and O's that was circa 1989 or so. I consider that a waste of valuable handicapping time. Every race and line for every horse is rated in RDSS and a Sartin advancement, so this is already done for you. I would suggest you make use of and employ the Preceptor tool in determining which line is best to use. The Preceptor uses the 7 Primary factors to rate each line of a horse against its self and is much more proficient at rating a line than the old X and O's. The X & O's is subjective whereas the Preceptor is extremely much more accurate.No subjectivity and all the work is already done by the RDSS program and computer.


Good line hunting and picking.


Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 01:22 PM   #8
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Bill:
I appreciate your insight. It is a fact that the further back a line goes the percentage of winners decreases. I.e. more # 1 line win than # 2 etc. ,more #2 than #3 so forth. Sartin best of the last 3 comparable captures the highest percentage. I do go back further at times but wouldn't recommend that for beginners. But like you I have an awful lot of experience and even than its more a rarity than the norm.


Bill your so right about gathering your own records. Plus their more meaningful to the person and they remain in your brain housing group forever. Sartin said in so many words to never trust statistics unless their your own. I forget his exact quote but that's the gist of it.


BTY I hope your frisky ,feeling good and wish you the best of health.


Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 02:03 PM   #9
gptx
AlwNW1X
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 10
Bill,

Thanks that is very helpful, and "and be consistent in your own work" is speaking loud and clear to me! Consistency has always been an issue for me. WAY too much over-analyzing causes me to jump around too much. Proper, consistent paceline selection will take a lot of the noise away I'm certain.



Mitch,

Thanks for your insight. I have already copied and pasted your turf, sloppy, off track comments into my paceline selection notes!
gptx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 02:26 PM   #10
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Good Skill

Hi GPTX

Thanks, It takes lots of practice and dedication to stay consistent.

The main reason I use FTL-Brohamer guidelines is that it forces me to
focus on the horse's real abilities,
If the horse ran a 0 race in the last line, I want to know why?
Brohamer's guidelines "the horse should show something "
is very useful

anyway, The RDSS built-in ability to model is a blessing and I can't thank
Ted enough

Mitch
Thank you, I am feeling well. I am looking forward to your derby final selections.
I will have to watch from my bed on Saturday but I will be able to follow along, and play on TVG
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Lies lies and racing statistics (a brain teaser) rdiam General Discussion 4 01-13-2019 11:44 PM
Betting Examples Discussion Bill V. July Contest 55 07-20-2012 09:32 AM
Statistics rmath RDSS2 / FAQ's 11 02-27-2012 07:43 PM
when baloney gains credibility Tim Y Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 15 03-21-2009 08:14 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:36 AM.