Tampa Sunday

[PeteC]

I want to see what people think about the favorite in this Tampa race today (#6 Good Lord). His last race is on the lead before fading to second. It has never been on the lead before in the PP's.

Should we look at this horse as having changed its style and therfore is a potential lone early today? Or does this look more like a horse that wound up out of position last race and shoudn't be considered early today.

Appreciate any feedback. Good 'capping and matchin' today everyone...

[Bill V.]

Good Day Pete

Here is my look


AV CL

H1 119.3 2.40
H2 147.3 1.82
H3 109.8 1.57
H4 88.9 2.02
H5 188.8 2.36
H6 110.5 1.94
H7 166.5 1.99

Running Styles 1st call for Early

H1 PRE
H2 PRE
H3 SUS
HR multi
H5 PRE
H6 SUS
H7 PRE

Projected pace from horse 5 last line
23.0 45.4 121.4

workup

H1 I will use line twocome from route races
but pressed a 23.3 47.1 at 7.5
H2
I will use line 4 back to 7 furlongs Pressed a 23 45.4
H3
Last line just missed SUS from a 22.4 46
H4 i use two lines for this one line 2 and 3
pressed a 23 46
H5 Last line almost Wire to wire 23 45.4
H6 Deep closer last two rotes races Line 3
deep sus from 22.4 47
H7 I will use two lines pressed a 22.4 46.2

My top 5 contenders are all SUS running style horses
Energy exertion runners

two SUS
Three SUS
Four SUS
Five SUS
seven SUS

At the MP of race I see the 4 with a little lead over
the 3 and 7

The 4 drops back
the race is the 5 2 and 7
bet wise I hoe the 4 takes enough out of the 5
to let 2 or 7 take it
2-7 win bets


GS
Bill V.
Vero Beach FL
Resting

[Capcondo]

Hi Pete:

Here's my take.

I'm still on the top 5 morning lines and ties (which didn't work to well yesterday).

So 2 and 4 are out. They both came up sustained for me.

The problem is no one wants the lead. The 5 must have wondered what happened when he got the lead last time. He ran his eyeballs out at the end (12.0 sec 2nd call to stretch and 12.0 seconds stretch to wire against a weak early pace.)

1. P
3. S
5. P
6. S
7. P

I think a P horse will win. If I look at the last four races for the 5:

Last Got the lead
2nd: Steadied
3rd: Very fast pace
4th: Very close to 22.2 on wet fast.

Pace will be slow. Slower than last time. I am going to make it like the race 2 back where he was steadied on a wet fast track. 23.1 46.1 1:10.2 1;23.1. I slowed the first quarter down by one fifth.

The pressers are 1, 5, 7. The 5 is out because he is out of position with the lead. The 1 is a bit to slow late. I like the 7 off the line 2 back.

Tough race. Good luck.

Tim

[SilentRun]

RDSS point of view

(Horse 7 has been scratched).

I don't feel the 4 will win as the winners running style indicates P-S/P.
This leaves the 3-5-6. The odds are pretty much chalk with 12 MTP...PASS.

Ernie

[PeteC]

Thanks guys, we'll see how it turns out. BTW, Good Lord is #5 as you both figured out. Typo on my part.

Richie, if you get a chance...I remember you made a comment in a post long ago and I couldn't find it recently. It related to non-early horses who make the lead in a paceless race and run poorly because they were out of position (as Good Lord did last out). You mentioned that Jim had a comment to you regarding how to rate these horses in their next starts.

[SilentRun]

Results:

[Capcondo]

Thought you might like to see how poorly my 7 might have run (scratched).



If I take the seven out and rate the top 5 morning line, I get:



Hiding the 5 gets the short priced winner on top.

Tim

[Bill V.]

Well with the seven out I stayed away. Thanks Pete for the race. If I remember
Rich and Hat asked for help looking for races were none of the runners. wanted the lead
Nice race to do today Even if it was not too profitable. Practice and experience is

Hey Ernie. I'm in vero beach I was in boynen beach. Weds. I looked at all the banks in town as I passed through looking for you to make a deposit with your Winnings

What happen today no nice sunshine. First day since I got here
Good skill

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hey Ernie. I'm in vero beach I was in boynen beach. Weds. I looked at all the banks in town as I passed through looking for you to make a deposit with your Winnings

What happen today no nice sunshine. First day since I got here
Good skill

Try the Cayman Islands....I have my accounts scattered around.

As far as sunshine is concerned I will see if I can work my magic....
check back on Tuesday.


Regards

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by PeteC

I want to see what people think about the favorite in this Tampa race today (#6 Good Lord). His last race is on the lead before fading to second. It has never been on the lead before in the PP's.

Should we look at this horse as having changed its style and therefore is a potential lone early today? Or does this look more like a horse that wound up out of position last race and shoudn't be considered early today.

Hi Pete
Just got home from mini vacation - VERY good question man - my take:

Lets start from the bottom and move up to the last race and look at his style when he either won or finished very strongly

1) line 9 from Hoo - WINS running position 6-6-3-1 - that is sustained BUT look at comment line - BROKE SLOW - ONLY time in pps showing that happened so he is NOT habitual poor breaker

2) line 5 from CD - runs position 3-3-3-2 - runs 3 wide gaining a length from 1c-2c against pretty fast pace - early pressing a reasonable call?

3) line 4 from Tampa - runs 2-2-2-2 - early presses hard holding lengths from 1c-2c

4) line 3 from Tampa BUT against wild fast 22-44 AND in a 60k stakes - 8-7-6-3 is the positioning

5) last line at Tampa - runs 1-1-1-2 against a 23 opening fraction

my feedback/ suggestion is taking out line 9 and line 3 for reasons stated what is the running style?

what info is missing that might help clear the picture?

** Hat Helper - In MY opinion the answer is in the opening post of "Hat's" 5 step approach:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5715

What info is missing from my layout above?? **

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsZL10oxPwY