My day at the races - Using FTL's Guidelines

[Bill V.]

Hi Neil

I saw that, I see what you are seeing. The only thing that makes me wonder about line 2 -since it is not a (+) race is I am wary of horses who figure to be trailing at the EP point of the race, but have a sub 80 LPR

I would love to read what FTL thinks about this horse


Thanks
Bill

[Lt1]

Hi Bill. I would have no problem using line 2 since the horse beat half the field and was up close at every call which several teaching members including Tom B, Col Bruce Jorgeson and Vic Palermo accepted. I've been accepting lines like this for my contenders[barring a better one to use] since I heard it at the 93 Vegas seminar. Get some nice priced winners doing it.
Tim

[Neil S.]

I periodically was seeing horses making moves within 2 lengths of the lead at the second call but not in the top 3 and i private messaged him about it. He said he considered this a (+) race. Thats why i have been using these lines since then along with some other adjustments I made after he answered a few other questions regarding the lines I had been using as opposed to what he recommended

[Bill V.]

Thanks Neil


I do the same thing, FTL knows I have my own adjustments
but they are minor. For instance I am a little more forgiving
of a bad line 1 or two if they are on different tracks or surfaces or distance as long as line 3 is within 189 days - Doc's guidline
This helps me but when it does not, I have learned not to cry and blow gaskets
The more we try to add our own spices to the recipe the greater the a chance we will get a cake instead of the bread
Sometimes these horses cloud what would have been a easy bet.

Its all in the decision

Good Skill
Bill

[Bill V.]

Here is the thing

I hope you know the true me, from our days last summer sitting together at
Saratoga, that I certainly do not mean any disrespect.

Tom B, Col Bruce Jorgeson and Vic Palermo were at that 93 seminar,
I was not but I have heard the audio of many of the seminars as well as
the video seminar. In all the seminars several teachers speak. From what I have heard, and read and heard right from Doc's mouth is. "you will hear about several different methods during this seminar, some of these presenters will present there own methods, They work for them The fact that they I may or may not agree with for my own or other teaching members methods is not important . What is important is that they have proven to me they are consistent winners using their methods."

i believe if FTL also was at that 93 seminar as a teaching member
and maybe he was ? Nobody knows who FTL really is .
If he made his presentation of his guidelines. If you believed in his presentation just like you believe in beating half the field is a valid guideline
would you use line 2? or make the 4 a non win contender ?

I added line 2 for horse 4 Sofia
It makes her a contender but what reason would I have to go to the third rated horse ?

This is another topic I hope FTL will address

Bless

Bill

[Neil S.]

Although I may win fewer races than many others the guidelines eliminate what I consider noise in the selection process. Even though there were 3 contenders instead of 2 with the addition of this horse FTL tells you to look at the mix of contenders and you can clearly see a significant early advantage possessed by the eventual winner which at his price would certainly make him an inviting win bet at minimum.

[Lt1]

Hey Bill you know I respect you and any opinion you put forth. At that seminar the Doc was there and as you know he didn't really allow his teaching members to stray to far from what he wanted. In this case since he allowed them that latitude I believe that he didn't disagree with that approach. I rate this line as a (+) based on what I heard there and private conversations later on. Again it's not strict adherence to guidelines but guidelines can and should be flexible otherwise they become rules. By using this approach I open the contender selection a little bit but this doesn't mean that this horse or any other would stand further evaluation. Just mine way of looking at things based on my experience.
Tim

[Mitch44]

Bill no disrespect but that is a hell of a stretch. FTL may have attended that seminar but I seriously doubt he was on any panel or was a teaching member, The "Doc" had stick guidelines of 63% to be a teaching member and even then they may not be accepted especially to be on the panel.
Having been born yesterday and not last night I'm not believing that one at all.

In 1993 Sartin was using the best of the last 3 at a comparable distance and had been since at least 1990. He was forward looking and had long abandoned what was in his circa 1985 pace line manual. No FTL was nowhere near this panel.



BTW I would have had the 4 as a contender also & used L 2, its more in line with todays pace scenario, in line 1 he rated to get the distance & stretch out.


Mitch44

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Neil

I saw that, I see what you are seeing. The only thing that makes me wonder about line 2 -since it is not a (+) race is I am wary of horses who figure to be trailing at the EP point of the race, but have a sub 80 LPR

I would love to read what FTL thinks about this horse


Thanks
Bill

Attachment 45606

Hi Bill,

I took this from page 1 of “Picking Contenders and Pacelines” in the compilation made by Bill L .

c - last line the horse made up lengths between first call and second call to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call (a “(+)” race) even if it faded in the stretch and is the same distance, surface

The horse in question made up a half length during the second fraction and came within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call. Although narrowly, the horse qualifies for a “(+)” race. As noted, how the horse finished the race from the second call doesn’t matter.

On a personal note, here is a horse that in its' first 5 races (as a maiden) displayed early form. Since breaking its' maiden it is no longer running as an early horse.( I dismiss its' last race as the distance of that race was 7.5f ) I would not expect the horse to show early form in today's race.

[atkinsrr]

Hey Bill V. see you are up and at em....hope the health is improving for you....wishing you the best...Randy A.