Using RDSS with a sample race in my learning (Apr 13, 2013 - OP Race 2)

[NeedForSpeed]

Hello everyone.

Well I've been hitting it pretty hard since I joined here about a week ago. I want to give a progress report by doing a sample race with what I know so far as to get some feed back on what I might be doing right and more importantly what I am doing wrong or missing. My goal is to maximize the usage of Sartin Methodology. That means knowing when I am violating any methodology rules and being set straight. I am using everything I know in the week I have been reading and watching on this site. I must say its been far beyond anything I expected in learning and enjoying in handicapping and maybe even more importantly philosophies on life and other such matters.

So here we are. I am using Oaklawn Park 04-13-2013 Race 2. I selected this race for a number of reasons mostly because its the type of race I will be using once I start this thing for real. Its a full field all horses with plenty of PP's. Its straight forward in nature as all 12 horses have 2 wins lifetime. Its also a race I believe the software did an excellent job on.

A couple of things to point out before we get going For those types of horses that will affect the race but will not win I am going to make them in the money contenders. I want the software to show them on the screen even though I don't consider them real contenders.

I am selecting 2 horses to win per the preferred Sartin style. I am going in order of contender selection then pace line selection again which I believe the methodology taught.

CONTENDER SELECTION

1- Dynamic Knight ==> "+" pace line in last. Distance and surface match today's event. WIN CONTENDER
2- Grind ==> "+" last pace line. Distance, surface and conditions match today's event. I wavered about making this horse an ITM but it was only a neck off the last race. WIN CONTENDER
3- Franks On Fire ==> "+" last pace line. Distance, surface and conditions match today's event. WIN CONTENDER
4- Brother Dudeleo ==> "(+)" 2 pace lines back with 2 "0" pace lines sandwiched in between. The horses finishes since winning its 2NW race are dismal. ITM CONTENDER
5- Party Hard ==> 2 wins in 34 races non of which are on the screen are too much to overcome. He has a "(+)" last race but its not enough for me to see a win today. OUT
6- Perfect Reflection ==> This horse looks like a sprinter. His only 2 usable lines are the last 2 both of which are sprints. He won the 5.5f to get out of 2NW and was beat soundly in his only 3NW. OUT
7- Tiz Our Insight ==> "+" last pace line. Distance, surface and conditions match today's event. Being cautious about the bullring numbers from Delta but going to call this WIN CONTENDER.
8- Barham ==> Really tricky. This horse is a serious sprinter and even if he wasn't his last route was 709 days ago. I almost used him until I saw his string of state bred races. He also just graduated into NW3 conditions. OUT
9- Truman's Commander ==> "+" last pace line. Distance, surface and conditions match today's event he's even coming down a bit in price but moving up to NW3. WIN CONTENDER
10- Arrived Home ==> Another sprinter type but this one has a "(+)" last pace line that matches up well with today's race. WIN CONTENDER
11- Front Line Lawyer ==> 4 straight "+" pace lines all that fit today's race. They should all be this easy. WIN CONTENDER
12- Rhodsey ==> Lightly raced horse with 3 straight "+" pace lines until an oh so close "+" in its last race. In fact some people might call that a "(+)" race. WIN CONTENDER

So with contender selection done lets pick pace lines. The methodology seems to say if the last pace line is a good one use it. With that in mind.

1- Dynamic Knight ==> The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
2- Grind ==> The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
3- Franks On Fire ==> The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
4- Brother Dudeleo ==> The last pace line is a "0" and the 2nd pace line which fits today's race and is recent enough is (+). LINE 2
7- Tiz Our Insight ==> The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
9- Truman's Commander ==> The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
10- Arrived Home ==> The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
11- Front Line Lawyer ==> The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
12- Rhodsey ==> Tough call. The last pace line is oh so close. But the 2nd pace line is a "+" and is only 13 days off the first. LINE 2

Time to press the analysis button in RDSS. We have what we see in picture #1. This is where I try to visualize the race and I think Velocity - PoH gives me the best idea. What I see is a lukewarm pace lead by the #4 horse. I try to study the 4 horse a little more than the rest because he is the key to the pace. I see this horse unable to maintain the lead and fall off. Because the pace will be on the slower side I automatically eliminate any ESP "L" types. The #11 horse is now eliminated from win contender.

So now what? On to picture #2. I think this leaves us with our first win selection. The #2 horse is the only ESP "P" type in the race. This is a good thing because he should be sitting comfortably off the pace set by a faltering #4 horse. I look at Total Energy and this horse is right near the top at #2. That's enough for me to make him one of my win bets.

The last win bet will have to come from a group thats all bunched together as far as race shape is concerned. I start with the #1 horse because he leads in Total Energy. But I want to get more validation so I go to the BL/BL screen. Well that settles it for me as the 1 horse leads in almost all categories including the very popular (I am finding out) VDC.

So there you have it. Win bets on the 1 and the 2. Of course I knew the results coming in and you have to tell yourself are you subconsciously going to be swayed no matter how objective you are trying to be? Probably. But I thought this was a good exercise for me to start gaining knowledge into the Methodology. Please let me know if you have suggestions or comments or anything as I am not trying to show how great a handicapper I am but to be successful using the Sartin Methodology and of course the wonderful RDSS software which nailed this 1 horse which paid $7.50.