LIVE - TAM 3rd - 4/26/17

[Jeebs]

Tam 3rd - 1 mile on Turf, Clm16000n2L for 3+

Pacelines:
#1 - No Line/Non-Contender. This one is an E/EP runner on dirt going short. Even looking at its 2015 turf races at the bottom of the page, I am skeptical of this one switching surfaces.
#2 - Line 1. Both L1 and L3 are top percept total efforts and show a mid-to-very sustained graphing. Last out was a top effort despite the visual line, so I will give it the last line to rate.
#3 - No Line/Non-Contender. 1/35 lifetime and 1/27 going long on the lawn. No upside in taking this one at the current odds (6-1 at this posting) based on the record. If it wins, I lose and move on.
#4 - No Line/Non-Contender. To quote The Hat, this one has become "a slow horse" if it wasn't slow already! L1 and L2 are slow route races. Its recent turf efforts are balanced more toward the Early than Sustained, which could present problems, since it doesn't have strong enough F3's to stay in the later rounds.
#5 - Line 9. 1/18 life and no discernable turf form, other than its one turf route (L9), which shows a sustained pattern in the 2nd and 3rd fraction. Can that line translate into success here?
#6 - Line 1. 1/20 life but seemed to wake up a little bit on the surface switch. Tough customer if it can duplicate the $25k tag effort today.
#7 - No Line/Non-Contender. The pattern is that of a slow, sustained runner, who is either too far back early, or too close early and not sustained enough late.

Based on odds, the race is a pass. Tough to take the #6 at that price, despite the fact that it has a 3.7 pt TPR edge.

[Jeebs]

Glad I passed. There is a reason #5 and #6 are what they are. #4 kind of won by default late, even if it was the bob of a nose.

[Mark]

Jeebs,

What recent line is comparable to today's race?
Why are the two last lines irrelevant to today's race?
Couldn't you interpret the last line as a workout?
Off the third line back this horse is a standout and pays over $40.

If you check all lines and lower the horse in question to the ITM section and remove all the dirt lines this horse is consistently Sustained. He adjusts slightly for POR. In my experience, horses will have different Running Styles on dirt vs Turf or Poly.

I use 100% DTV +ITV +15/-15 range on most turf races as I have found them more accurate than dirt variants. So off that 3rd line this horse gets a full -13 DTV and he still is on top.
Additionally, this horse came off a 232 day layoff and the 3rd line represents his best effort post-layoff on today's surface. I don't know Rory C Miller at all but it appears he only has this horse in his barn and he has been very patient with him. After that last race dirt sprint the horse is back in 24 days, more or less a normal turnaround. From his work tab, he is either worked off track where it goes unrecorded or they gallop this horse which makes the last race sprint even more important. Galloping can produce fit horses particularly if they are sustained as the miles put in develop the stamina they need. That sprint tightener and quick return says he is sound and ready.
Notice also that he ran reasonably well on turf as a maiden and the huge jump in Trackmaster speed rating and Total Energy occurred in that 3rd race back. So he has developed as he matured from those 2 year old races.
Your posts have changed from a strict numbers oriented approach to a bit more matching as you have referenced "The Hat" lately, which I personally think will pay huge dividends for you. However, now you have to really focus on form cycle and trainer intent. Even if you keep a little bankroll for these types of speculative wagers, over time you will see it take off because the mutuels are so good and very few people see these things.

Good Skill and Luck!

[Jeebs]

Hiya Mark!

Thanks for demonstrating how this winner was gettable. Upon review, it is clear as day how keeping a consistent, even keeled approach and an open mind will keep one from getting lost.

This was a moment where subconsciously, I "changed" my swing if you will. I focused my lines too much on the E/L graph, but got myself too wrapped up in the actual numbers. In short, I was matching up lines based on LPR and Energy ESP. The fact that this horse's spread changed in recent times, coupled with declining LPR, was the factor that got me off that one. With the horses left, I trusted nobody at all at those prices and moved on.

Here's the problem with the approach I laid out above: it is not the approach that I had been achieving consistency with. With some assistance from Mitch, my strategy had transitioned to using the best perceptor of the last three comparable races. Comparable meaning like distance/surface structure, energy profile that it consistently runs, avoiding muddy/sloppy/soft/yielding surfaces and avoiding trouble lines. Examining the Total Energy pace it faced as well as ran is also part of the procedure. From Day 1, I have used visual run style analysis.

Is this process perfect? Far from it. But it was consistent and the contenders were jumping off the page.

My match-up is the Energy screen and top to bottom sort of each horse's Total Energy. I prefer getting a race down to 4 horses to reduce the noise pollution. I would then look at TPR to see if that sort order remains the same or changes. A greater emphasis in EPR or LPR within a line can drastically alter the horse's standing on TPR over TE. I want to know why. I will look at velocity and the respective fractions to see for myself if anyone has an edge in various areas. It eventually boils down to Bottom Line tiers.

Back to the race. As seen on the screens, 3rd line down was top perceptor and TE over distance and surface. Visually, you can see that this one passes horses but nothing else beyond that. I hate to admit it, and I posted about it the other day, but I still struggle using lines that visually are either not 1-2-3 finishes or speed/tired out. Old habits die hard. In any event, the winner lands in the array and would have been worth the risk in that field.

[Mitch44]

Hi Jeebs,

I would have used line 3 myself. The last two races where just prep races. He's a young horse that's still trying to find its correct class after its maiden win therefore the drop makes sense and the last two and layoff fooled the public.

The important thing here is the lesson you learned as it'll stick in your brain with what it paid. Remember some of those questions you asked me that I pay no attention to. Also form is about the hardest thing there is to figure out. You'll probably lose two for every one you win when it comes to form. Therefore I place more emphasis on proper distance and surface and then by Total energy. All that says weather it has a shot or not, Those things somewhat are more important than form. Form really belongs to the horses connections even more so with maidens.

The difference between total energy and CPR is that Total Energy considers the 1st FR where as CPR doesn't.
Glad to see your smart enough to see a mistake and the value of a consistent approach.
Mitch44

[Mark]

For me it all starts with the examination of each horses' past performances. I figure I handicapped for close to 30 years with only a Racing Form and a pencil and I established a relatively quick method of combing through each horse so that I could arrive at an initial opinion about him: Is he in for the exercise or the money? I assign Running style here and a preliminary paceline. It greatly helps if you can find an E in-the-lead FPLR horse and mark his first two fractions so that as I bring up each horse usually by the program's Running Style order those similar lines are highlighted.
I review a horse's performance from the bottom up. Foremost in my mind is the question, "What is the trainer doing with this horse?" and you will have to go to the Trip Note tab to see race post positions, equipment changes and medication changes. If there is a real flaw in RDSS2 it is in this area. You have to pick up "blinkers on/off", Lasix on/off, 1st time gelding and such from Equibase or some other source. However, i can tell you that this information can explain sudden improvement that you can't explain any other way.
As I review the horse's pacelines I am focused on early fractions and the early positions the horse held in the race. I am looking for "fighting behavior". A high percentage of the time you will immediately see the #1 Preceptor line and its position in the 10 races will give you an indication of the direction the horse is going. If that line is down at the bottom I know I want to see a extended layoff somewhere in between. For that will eliminate any lines below the layoff if subsequent races are much poorer than before. It is kind of a pivot. A horse can come back better from a long layoff. In my view long layoffs are good. The connections had enough sense and opinion of the animal to spend the money to keep the horse off the track and get him sound and well.
I can see the various things the trainer has tried with the horse to improve his performance, ie distance and surface switches, pushing the horse to the lead in one or more races, jumping him in class to compete against faster early fractions and the like. And I guess the most important thing is I want to confirm in my own mind that the horse has had enough racing and work to be physically fit going into today's race. Early and Presser horses need work against fast fractions to be ready for a top effort, less so for Sustained horses. You just have to handicap a few thousand races or more before you intuitively know a horse is set. Today's placement will help in that evaluation, returning to conditions that the horse has had success at before will often tip your opinion one way or the other.
In this process, I throw some horses out. However, I know the horses that are left have shown some ability to compete successfully against the initial projected pace. If you have a paceless race all you are really looking for is the best appropriate POWER LINE and go from there.
I think that you can and should do this before going to the adjusted screens because you have formed an opinion about each horse and you really only have to finalize your projected pace and determine how the race should run, Early or OTE. Now you consult your adjusted screens and see the effects of variant and ITV and distance equalization. Then make any fitness adjustments or culls and consult your decision making screen of choice. For me that is the Segment screen which is pure pace and Dream Race and utilizes the time proven efficacy of the Sartin Methodology of computing fractional speeds inclusive of beaten lengths gained and lost. I also use Val4 format which has its origins in the Thoromation/Kgen research. I just don't care about the regression based BL/BL or these new screens that factor in all kinds of things that put you on the chalk. Nor do I bet the top horse on the Segment screen. I sort on F1 after all I am a Matcher and have internalized all the teachings of Jim Bradshaw. I'm going to look for several things, "bet the horse closest to the leader positionally, factoring in the pace of race" in most OTE races. If the race has multiple Es and Eps, I am going to look for the horse who positionally will be behind that speed brigade at the 1st Call. And if i still can't make sense of things, I will consult the Energy screen or Voodoo the raw lines on the Original screen. But candidly, if my top contenders are going to be bet and are low morning line odds, I pass the race. There is absolutely no need to bet short priced horses. If I can turn a bet-down horse into a 5/1 or better exacta with longer priced horses that figure than I may take a shot at that but you can't make money at this game spreading you money around too far. Losing wagers add up over time even if you hit some spread exactas from time to time.
I guess I am looking at adjusted screens to confirm my opinion of the horses as I went through their pps RAW mostly. If i haven't read the race right and isolated the horses that should compete for the win then I have no business fooling around betting these horses: That's gambling and I am not a gambler. There was a time in my life that money was too dear to waste and that has carried forward into many areas of my life.
This is my approach and may seem off the wall to some. Others may see the merit in it. However, it is just one way and I offer it for informational purposes only. Good Luck!!