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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 01-31-2016, 01:11 PM   #1
lone speed
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2016 Kentucky Derby Prep Races

2016 Holy Bull chart - Mohaymen

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It is still early but the prep races towards the 2016 Kentucky Derby are underway. The winner of the Holy Bull was very, very impressive!! It was its first race since late November and it ran one ultra sharp race off the two month freshening. The trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has a major contender for the Derby. In its next race, the Fountain of Youth, it might expend its energy chasing a faster pace to build its foundation for the Derby.

Holy Bull pace fractions- evaluation
24.64 49.06 112.52 136.04 and final time of 142.07

Mohaymen strolled along behind horses in a soft 49.06 opening 4Furlong pace but put on the accelerators with a sub 23.46 turn time followed by another impressive 23.52 fraction from the 6Furlong mark to the mile marker and out in 6 seconds flat for the last sixteenth of a mile EASILY without any hard exertion. This prep race is an impressive sustained paceline. So fingers crossed and let the journey begin towards the Run for the Roses to the 2016 Kentucky Derby.
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Old 02-07-2016, 03:21 PM   #2
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Robert Lewis Stakes 1 1/16th

Mor Spirit
Result chart:
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Bob Baffert is back in the Derby chase with Mor Spirit in 2016, but it is obviously Mor Spirit is no American Pharoah.

In the Robert Lewis, Mor Spirit chased some moderate soft fractions of 47.4 for 4 furlongs and 112.1 for 6 furlongs with a respectable 30.70 last fraction.

When we evaluate the last fraction of 30.70 of Mor Spirit, it is one analysis to determine its innate ability to compete competitively at the Kentucky Derby distance but it must be analyze in context of the early pace fraction it had to exert. In general, it is nothing extraordinary if it had chased an early 6 furlong fractions of 114.0 or slower. But if the Derby contender had exerted a 6 furlong fraction of 112 or faster and then if it had came home in 30 and change, then we should take this Derby contender seriously. So in general; what was the last closing fraction in relation to the early pace exerted...

Here are a couple of past Derby winners to compare:

I'll Have Another-2012 Derby winner
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American Pharoah-2015 Triple Crown winner
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What was very impressive about American Pharoah's race in the Front Runner Stakes was it was its first two turn route race and Pharoah ran this race in September of its two year old season. These posts are JMHO and personal observations through the years following the Kentucky Derby contenders. Until the next prep race...
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Old 02-21-2016, 04:38 PM   #3
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The Derby trail continues...

El Camino Real Derby
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Frank Conversation wins this Derby prep with a soft Beyer number of 86 but I have lost respect for the usefulness of Beyer Speed numbers many years ago. Besides, Beyers speed numbers suffers from "shrinking numbers" as Beyer based his Beyers numbers on $10,000K claiming pars. (discussion for another thread)

Frank Conversation will probably stay on the synthetics with the Spiral Stakes or Blue Grass stakes as its next race. The El Camino Real had soft early fractions so we move on to evaluate other Derby prep races.

Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park

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Grade 3 Derby prep race worth $500,000!! Great meet and great purse offerings at this meet..

In the Southwest stakes, the winner Suddenbrekingnews and the runner-up came from 14th and 11th positions away from the early pace duel over a deep track labeled at good. After an early pace of 112.1 for 6 furlongs, the closing fraction of 32.4 seems very soft. Suddenbrekingnews came home in 31.0 for his last fraction but it was accomplished with a moderate 114.0 fraction for the early 6 furlong fraction. So nothing spectacular...

Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds...
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A much anticipated race for the race favorite, Airoforce but Airoforce disappointed big time as he finished "up the track", second to last in the Risen Star race. The winner Gun Runner ran well but the race's energy distribution leaves much to desire. Candy My Boy exerted the early fraction in a quick 46.1 for the opening fraction and a 111.1 for 6 furlongs but the group came home staggering in 32.2 for the closing fraction.

Look for Airoforce to redeem himself but on synthetic surface as more likely, this horse prefers the quirky surface. Maybe, the Spiral Stakes or the Blue Grass will be next on the agenda.

We move forward to the upcoming Derby preps....
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Old 02-27-2016, 09:06 PM   #4
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Foutain of Youth Stakes

The Fountain of Youth Stakes was a much anticipated race for Mohaymen and he did not disappoint. Zulu ran a big effort for his first two turn route race for Pletcher even though this one finished 2 and 1/4 lengths behind Mohaymen at the finish line. Look for Zulu to duck Mohaymen and seek a Derby prep victory away from Mohaymen.

As expected, Mohaymen expended his energy early in the Fountain of Youth as he was much closer to the early pace of 47.0 for four furlongs and 111.0 for six furlongs with a final time of 142.4 for the finish. This might be the same race as the Holy Bull even though Mohaymen finish with a faster time of 142.0 for the Holy Bull but ran a much slower early pace fractions.

As impressive as Mohaymen has been so far in the early Derby preps; I'm on the lookout for a dominant early energy Derby contender to come out of hiding in the upcoming Derby preps.

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Old 03-06-2016, 02:23 PM   #5
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Gotham Stakes

Mohaymen's stablemate, Shagaf won the Gotham

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Shagaf, a stablemate of Mohaymen but trained by Chad Brown wins the Gotham over a tiring Aqueduct dirt surface. In a previous stakes race at the same distance, Mei Ling, a 4 year old filly trained by Todd Pletcher won the race after "walking the dog" on the early fractions ( 48 for 4F and 112.4 for 6 F) and stopping the tele-timer in 1:45.
In the Gotham, Laoban, a West coast horse, carved out a much quicker fractions of 47 for 4F and 111.3 for 6 F before he got overtaken at the finish line by Shagaf. The closing fraction of 34.0 by Shagaf will be a huge question mark going added distance in the near Derby preps, even if it was over a tiring track. The next race for Shagaf will be the Wood Memorial at the same track.

So far, it looks like Mohaymen, Greenpointcrusader, and Nyquist are the top contenders for the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Nyquist, trained by Doug O'Neil seems to be prepping light for his Derby quest, but O'Neil has won a Derby previously with I'll Have Another, so I won't question his choice of prep races.

Bigger and more important Derby prep races are ahead. Two months to go until the "Big Dance."
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Old 03-13-2016, 05:16 PM   #6
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San Felipe Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby

San Felipe Stake chart

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Danzing Candy wired the San Felipe Stake which everyone thought was a very competitive field even though it had had six contenders.

Danzing Candy's early pace fractions were: 23.0 46.11 for 4F 1:11 for 6F and a final time of 1:43 for the mile and 1/16th. Once again, the final fraction of 32.0 begets the question to compete competitively for the Derby distance.

Danzing Candy beat Baffert's top gun in Mor Spirit and Exaggerator who finished second to Nyquist in its last race.

Tampa Bay Derby

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Pletcher-trainees run one-two in this race. Destin sets a track record for the distance but I was more impressed with Outwork's effort even though he lost to his stablemate. This was Outwork's first effort in a route race and two-turns; thus it was an impressive race. Outwork carved out fractions of 47.4 for 4F 111.2 for 6F and a final time of 142.4... Decent final fraction of 31.1 by Destin...
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Old 04-04-2016, 01:30 AM   #7
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Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park

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Bob Baffert never seems to lack a major contender each year for the Kentucky Derby. Cupid is now a major contender for the Arkansas Derby. Cupid seem to have been spooked by a late afternoon shadow when entering the homestretch. In the Rebel Stakes, Cupid forced all the early pace fractions; after 6 furlongs of 112.11, Cupid came home in 31.70.

Meydan- UAE Derby 1 3/16thM

I have to track down TrakUs charts to evaluate the winner Lani from Japan.

Louisiana Derby

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Gun Runner did not impressed many speed handicappers with his race in the Louisiana Derby but I feel that Gun Runner is a legitimate contender for the Derby off his Risen Star winning performance.

Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park on synthetic surface

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There were five horses separated by a length or less. It was also run on synthetics...Why not card this race on turf?....

Florida Derby at Gulfstream

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Nice win by Nyquist who will be the morning line favorite for this year's Kentucky Derby after the dismal performance by Mohaymen. Nyquist is still undefeated from his two year-old season and has an unblemished record. Nyquist did bored in the stretch during the Florida Derby. Nyquist finished in 37.80 after setting 111:40 for 6 furlongs; a respectable final fraction for 9 furlongs is sub-37.0.

Some will questioned that Mohaymen faded during the last part of the Florida Derby but there have been several past Derby winners who did the same. Maybe the trainer did not have Mohaymen 100%...a lot of question marks for a former leading Derby contender.

Here is a past performance of Thunder Gulch who also faded in the stretch in his last Derby prep race:

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Old 04-04-2016, 09:40 AM   #8
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Loving this thread, it will be fun after the derby and triple crown races to come back to this and read over it after the fact. Keep it up, I'm still looking for my derby horse.
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Old 04-04-2016, 05:28 PM   #9
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Cool One month to go to the "Big Dance"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Latekick View Post
Loving this thread, it will be fun after the derby and triple crown races to come back to this and read over it after the fact. Keep it up, I'm still looking for my derby horse.
Plenty of time: many contenders are on the bubble with only 20 points.....

Meydan: UAE Derby



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Look at those dawdling early pace fractions....

fractional times of Lani:

27.33 50.82 for 4F 1:14.22 for 6F and 139.02 for mile and 1:58.41 for 1mile and 3/16

Maybe, we can compare with California Chrome fractional times in the World Cup.

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Old 04-05-2016, 07:46 PM   #10
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Should be interesting. I have entered the race info for all graded races from BC on to the present and have 68 lines of data for horses that might show up on the first Saturday in May. With most of the Derbies left to run there should be as many as 40 or 50 more data lines to enter before the non-contenders start to fall off the trail as April ends and May begins. All of this in prep for a Marathon look at the Derby.
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