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Old 10-30-2013, 12:20 AM   #1
lone speed
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BC Classic 2013 race 12

$5 Million race at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter:

Some tough contenders, but it is time to find the true contenders who can handle a true Grade One pace at the distance.

Projected pace of 46.4 110 and the mile at 134.6

My true contenders are the first two finishers from last year's Classic race and two up and coming three year olds.

My contenders are:

Fort Larned
Will Take Charge
Mucho Macho Man
Palace Malice

What happened to one of my favorite horse.Game on Dude?? Well, using a German idiom or proverb " das Kind mit dem Bade ausschütten"- Throw the baby out with the bath water!

Fort Larned should set the pace again as he has faced the sharpest pace while Will Take Charge has closed against a six furlong pace of 1:11 and a mile time of 1:34 and 4 fifth...

Good skills
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Old 10-30-2013, 03:07 PM   #2
Bill Lyster
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I think this race is almost a repeat of the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Flat Out can run 134.8 running 2-2-1 to the stretch call on a 111 pace
Fort Larned 134.8, 1-1-1 on a 110 pace
Game on Dude 135.0, 1-1-1, on a 110.4 pace
Moreno, 134.6, 1-1-1 on a 110.8 pace
Mucho Macho Man, 134.7, 2-2-2, on a 110.0 pace
Palace Malice, 134.8, 2-2-2, on a 110.8 pace
Paynter, 135.4, 2-2-1, on a 111.2 pace
Planteur, the EURP 135.6, apparently 1-1-1

Last Gunfighter, 135.3 runs 4-4-3 and is too slow

Who is left?
Ron the Greek, 135. 5-3-1 on a 110.6 pace
Will Take Charge 135.3, 5-5-3 of a 110.4 pace

AND
Declaration of War. In several races you can see on Youtube he runs from the middle of the pack, does not want any part of the lead, should have no problem running 5th or 6th and his race at Deauville he lost by 2 in a mile timed on firm turf in 133.4, so his mile time is 133.8. Only question is can he handle dirt? The Dundalk race showed he could handle synthetic, so my box in this race are RTG, WTC and Declaration of War.,

nuff said,
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Old 10-31-2013, 03:02 PM   #3
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Ron the Greek is scratched
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Old 10-31-2013, 04:07 PM   #4
Appy
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Another victim of a quarter crack.
Won't help price structure on the others in the field.
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Old 10-31-2013, 06:42 PM   #5
atkinsrr
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Well Well it's time for my fav race of the BC..the Classic...my top 5 BLBL came up
Fort Larned Ron the Greek (scratched) Game On Dude Macho Man Flatout
sorry but none of the 3 y.o. were even close for win consideration..Last year G.O.D. wasn't in my top 5 and Fort Larned was my biggest bet of the day...this year G.O.D is in the top 3 BLBL so must be considered...but he keeps beating up on inferior horses in Cal and he wants the lead early...sorry Dude...Moreno and Larned will frustrate you early in this one...I still give him a slight chance but I believe that Macho Man will benefit the most from the hot pace up front and will win .....I'm concerned with the two foreign shippers...they both have won on 2 diff surfaces might have to use both on my P4 tickets....also this might not mean much but no horse 6 y.o. or older has ever won the Classic....The "dude" is going against history......good luck and skills to all ..let's make some $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
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Old 11-01-2013, 12:44 PM   #6
atkinsrr
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Re-worked the Classic after the scratch of RTG ...also changed the pace line selection on Palace Malice and WTC..used their 3rd line back the Jim Dandy G2 where they both exceeded the 3 year best time with a 102-7 and 101-7. Using this line puts them into contention vs. using their 10F pace lines which didn't have them as contenders. Normally I don't use P/L where a horse had a DRF SR over 100...it's doubtful that these 3 y.o. can run that fast against older horses in this race....what do you guys think??? any comments would be appreciated...
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Old 11-01-2013, 02:09 PM   #7
Bill Lyster
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I still think there is an abundance of early speed. One reason Fort Larned won last year was because he ran a mile in 134 and something, something that GOD has never done. Game On has run 135 and has pressed. If the pace was not so hot I'd probably like Flat Out a little bit too. He pressed from mid pack against slower a long time back and there is no reason to force itself into this pace, who knows?

US-wise I think it sets up for Will Take Charge and Euro-wise check of Declaration of War on Youtube - he waits and pounces late. He should not be on the pace here. He ran well on synthetic in a Group 3 so that lessons the "can he run on something other than turf" question - not fully, but enough for me, anyway.

Good luck both days.
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Old 11-01-2013, 10:00 PM   #8
Appy
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I'm going to rework the entire Day 2 card tonight.
Re the Classic, as it stands now my BL says 1-7-9-6.
That doesn't give me the "feel good" I'm looking for.
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Old 11-03-2013, 01:38 PM   #9
atkinsrr
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I want to give a big congrats to one of my all time fav trainers D. Wayne Lucas for the job he did with WTC this year..he said this horse really matured after the Triple Crown
mentally and physically. I made my biggest bets of the day of Macho Man and Fort Larned both to win in the Classic and I gotta tell ya...WTC had me sweating when they come to the wire. I think that I heard Bill V. when he was screaming for WTC. I think in the future I'll only bet on the Classic and the F&M Turf..those seem to be the only races that I can win in recent years...Thx to all who posted comments ....
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Old 11-03-2013, 02:04 PM   #10
Appy
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atkinsrr, your first take on this race, "Last year G.O.D. wasn't in my top 5 and Fort Larned was my biggest bet of the day...this year G.O.D is in the top 3 BLBL so must be considered...but he keeps beating up on inferior horses in Cal and he wants the lead early...sorry Dude...Moreno and Larned will frustrate you early in this one...I still give him a slight chance but I believe that Macho Man will benefit the most from the hot pace up front and will win ....." was spot on.
Great job there, and congrats on another Classic payday.
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Last edited by Appy; 11-03-2013 at 02:07 PM.
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