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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 08-28-2015, 08:53 AM   #1
Jeebs
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Dealing with lines shorter than 6F

Hi,

How can races have ratings to them less than 6F when at 5 1/2f, the points of positional call are taken at 1/4 mile in and 3/8 mile (which is the 5/16 mile pole at 5 1/2f) in? This means that we're applying the 1/2 mile time (taken at the 3/16 mile pole) to action that happened an 1/8th of a mile prior, and lots can change in 660 feet.

At 5f, the points of positional call are taken 3/16 mile in and 3/8 mile in, yet again, the times are reported as 1/4 and 1/2. It's troubling to think about, as I can't trust the ratings on lines less than 6f.
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Old 09-01-2015, 10:48 AM   #2
DocSartinLearner
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Dealing with lines shorter than 6F

Hiya, Jeebs
This excellent, excellent question here, I would like to share with you, my following comments:
I truly believe that in the horse handicapping community have struggled with this for many years. I don't know if the few come up trying many different formulas, and finally someone is using extrapolated times. In other words, estimates. When it is determined that this was the best one to use was that the numbers they produced were consistent with the horses' other numbers, and appropriate for the class of race in which they were running.
The 5-1/2s are better than the 5s, but they are mathematically produced estimates. Having said that, you probably have seen enough of them that don't need to worry about the 5-1/2 furlong ratings if they are in line with the horse's other ratings, but always to have our eye out for the 5 furlong lines which are even more of a guess.

Have a great day!

DSL
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Old 09-02-2015, 05:23 PM   #3
Lt1
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All projections are always a tricky situations whether in sprints or routes, or sprints to routes. If you can't find a line that you are comfortable with for the horse trust the program. There are races that should be passed if you are not comfortable with the readouts. Nobody ever lost money passing a race.
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Old 09-07-2015, 04:26 PM   #4
CEW
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Jeebs.....another way around the BLs / point of call quandary is to accept the beaten lengths as is and chart your win percent over a number of races. You may find it is not worth worrying about, or the opposite. So say you are a 60% player playing 2 horses - do 10 races at 5 furlongs and see how you are hitting them. Either way you will find out the answer by charting your win percent. Plus it will be answered based on your input, which is all that really matters.

Best of luck!

Chuck
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Old 01-31-2016, 03:10 PM   #5
Mojo
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Does anyone know how to calculate AP, EP, SP and FX from races for 5.5 and 5 furlongs (based on MPH by Brohamer)? I've set up an Excel document to create these ratings but don't know how to handle the shorter distances. All I've seen in MPH is this sentence (p.14): "I've not included 5 and 5 1/2 furlong races because those races are best handicapped with final time."

Any help would be appreciated.
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Old 02-01-2016, 09:12 AM   #6
CEW
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Mojo - assuming you know how to make the velocity numbers at 6 furlongs, the only difference is the 3rd fraction. Instead of 1320 feet for the 3rd fraction (in a 6 furlong race), use 990 feet to calculate the third fraction for a 5 1/2 F paceline and 660 feet for the 5 furlong third fraction. Remember to factor in the beaten lengths.

Let me know if you need a more in depth explanation.

Regards,

Chuck
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Old 02-02-2016, 07:55 PM   #7
Mojo
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Thanks for the help, CEW!

It works great for 5.5 furlongs but gives me funky numbers for 5 furlongs. I'm not sure why-I've double checked my formulas and they look fine. Maybe I will disregard 5 F races and just use 5.5 F for my shortest ones.
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Old 02-03-2016, 08:37 AM   #8
CEW
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Mojo -

Check how your spreadsheet handles your 5f final times. Virtually all the 5 F finals are less than a minute. All the other distances have final times in minutes and seconds. So I take it your sprint formula automatically subtracts 40 seconds from the sprint final times to convert minutes and seconds to seconds.

Example: paceline (in tenths) 23.2 / 46.4 / 111.4 / no beaten lengths

Subtract 40 from the 111.4 and it converts the final into 71.4. Now you can subtract the 2nd call from it, and your third fraction time is 25 flat to make your velocity number - 52.80 in this case.

For 5 furlongs: 23.2 / 46.4 / 58.4 / no beaten lengths

Skip the 40 second subtraction since it is in seconds already. 58.4 - 46.4 = 12 seconds flat..... 660 feet / 12 seconds = 55.00 feet per second.

Then follow suit with beaten lengths and any other adjustments you use. The numbers should work for you. I've been using them for many years, including 5F.

Let me know how you make out. If they don't seem right, send an example.

Regards!

Chuck
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Old 03-01-2016, 01:56 PM   #9
atkinsrr
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Hi Jeebs, just read your comment on dealing with distance less than 6F...I remember in one of the follow-ups Doc mentioned when you have a 5 or 5 1/2 pace line only use a pace line of the same distance never use 6 or above...been trying to find the follow-up that the article was in and can't find it...I also do the same thing at Santa Anita at the 6 1/2 turf downhill...if they all don't have a pace line to choose at the same distance at S.A. just pass it and go to the next one...yeh I pass a lot
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