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05-21-2010, 06:25 PM | #1 |
Grade 2
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 81
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Friday night Hollywood selections
1st -- 4 - 5
2nd -- 2 - 5 3rd -- 1 - 8 4th -- 5 - 7 5th -- 2 - 3 6th -- 9 - 12 7th -- 1 - 3 8th -- 3 - 9 |
05-21-2010, 10:00 PM | #2 |
Grade 1 Aspiree
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
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I'll look at HOL as long as I can stay awake....
I am not sure about the first the 4 won last race just by a head..contentious now running at CL40K. The 5 was ITM at G1 but only 1 weak Turf race. You can't ignore the 1 but I like the 2 and 6 over the 4 or 5. Ernie Results: 1-4-2 chalk Last edited by SilentRun; 05-21-2010 at 10:17 PM. |
05-21-2010, 10:29 PM | #3 |
Grade 1 Aspiree
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
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R2 5 and 6 Ernie
#4 chalk wins again Last edited by SilentRun; 05-21-2010 at 10:40 PM. |
05-21-2010, 11:21 PM | #4 |
Grade 1 Aspiree
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
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R3 I liked the 1-3-7 and TX at 2MTP flashed 3-1-2-7 and my stats show
that the top 4 TX have an exacta hit rate near 70%. I also mentioned that my exacta hit rate has improved and this is an example: #2 was an RDSS toss so 1-3-7 was my best choice. Ex: 1/3 Ernie |
05-22-2010, 02:04 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Nice picks.
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05-22-2010, 08:52 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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chardale, a few nice hits there after east cost bedtime!
Ernie, so with an exacta hit rate near 70% top 4 Tx, you only need to hit EVEN odds to about break even (e.g. bet $12, receive $24). By even modest handicapping and employing some wheels to exclude horses who just can't win but may place, you've got a nice little system there... By tracking minimum and maximum exacta combo payouts, you can skip some of the lowest paying ones, or dutch them with a bit extra where a favourite looks like a lock. It would seem that a profit is rather hard to avoid. Remember Doc's ancient goal exhorting a 63% hit rate betting 2 horses. If you have a near 70% hit rate betting between 3 and 4 horses, you need only determine your minimum and average exacta odds required, apply normal methodology handicapping to try to cut down on the number of bets, then wait. Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
05-22-2010, 09:04 AM | #7 |
Grade 2
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 81
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Thanks buddy
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05-22-2010, 09:41 AM | #8 | |
Grade 1 Aspiree
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
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Quote:
and use them in conjunction with the 4 top TX horses at 2 MTP or even 1 MTP. I try to eliminate the TX non contender(s) and lock onto 2 promising TX horses. I generally use 1 or 2 RDSS horse (not shown on TX) and make my best exacta decision. When I win an exacta it usually includes 2 matching RDSS and TX horses. This has been working out well and I am improving my technique. The energy panel data (T.E, E/Ep, L/Ep and TPP) along with the early late graph (E/L) also plays a major factor in my analysis. I need to compile a more specific exacta hit rate as I have about 650 -700 races to draw upon. At this point I estimate the exacta hit rate is between 65% - 70%. Try it on paper, as it is a different approach and it takes some time to get used to. Ernie |
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