Is this drop suspicious?

[Bill V.]

Mike I glance at the RC and can get rough idea of a class rise or drop
I use the actual class of race first and mostly Hoff suggested and I agree that Quinns book The Handicappers Condition Book is a must read
As for the RC rating I have my own system
I compare the track master speed rating to the RC

Generally the RC reflects about what speed rating the winner of the race needs

The winner of the race's speed rating is at or just above or below the track master Race Class most of the time

Here is an example from a race I had open from Parx
Both horse 1 and 3 won their last race, Now in this race they are running against each other. Horse 1 ran in a 84 race class and got a 81 speed rating
Horse 3 ran in a 97 RC and got a 92 speed rating
These numbers are just a guide and they do change
Today's RC might be a 95 but if you model this you will see that
It very well will be a slightly higher or lower RC in the future.
It all depends on what the horses in the race earn for speed ratings
based on the DTV and who knows what else

[mowens33]

Bill, good stuff! as usual!!

I'm going to pickup the book you mentioned (The Handicappers Condition Book).

Thanks for your quick response.

Mike