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Old 04-21-2020, 10:13 AM   #51
DaveEdwards
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Maybe look at this the other way around?

Instead of looking for what factors do longshots have, perhaps another way to consider things is by looking at what factors would make a favourite vulnerable?

There are a whole range of techniques under the umbrella of the Sartin Methodology that would help I think.

Track profile showing where the winners cannot get up from.

High Beyer short price horse in a matching multi early race make up that gets eaten up by the pace. The list is endless.

As a little aside, my first ever bet applying the match-up, as best as my understanding at the time could do, was a multi Early race at Aqueduct.
I threw out three early horses, all short prices and backed two others.

These shorties clearly had the Beyers etc. As they were storming around the turn miles ahead of the field I was sat there thinking that this is ridiculous, I've thrown my money away. Moments later the three of them were treading water. My 40% stake horse got up comfortably. It only paid 20/1.
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Old 04-21-2020, 10:34 AM   #52
ScottB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
Hi Scott. For me it's pretty cut and dry. Since I'm a 2 horse wp bettor I simply fo;;ow the Docs wagercapping guidelines and pass races where no such acceptable wagering opportunities appear in the top 3. With exotics I simply play the combos that will basically give me as close to a 50% profit on investment. Also I keep models on each track by dist and surface as well as wagering records.
Tim
Thanks for your reply Tim, 2 horse win/place is interesting.

I'm strictly a win bettor 1 horse spot player. I originally started off being a spot player. In 2 months I made 6 plays with 5 winners the lowest payoff was 9.80

I was doing my work at the Meadowlands and eventually started socializing with the regulars who sat near me. I wound up changing my style and allowed their influence affect my play.

I opened up a betting account and starting working from home. I still continued to bet too many races. But now I am finally back to my spot play regimen. I like to make 2 or 3 wagers a week.
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Old 04-21-2020, 11:45 AM   #53
Lt1
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Scott sounds like a sound plan. One should always capitalize on their strong points while working on their weaker ones. Good luck with your plays.
Tim
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Old 06-28-2020, 10:06 PM   #54
Peteman
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It pains me to here of the loss of Bill,good guy,gone way too soon,without his passion
this site would not have come about,rest in peace.

Long shots,from what I have found,mind you I have a Brohamer view of racing.
the top 3 in ep had the best prices of any factor,based on about 1000 races I capped
all distances,turf poly,if you model your track,you can then see what distances this
does not apply to,there might be relationship to energy but could not tie it together.
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Old 06-29-2020, 03:36 PM   #55
MJS6916
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Originally Posted by ScottB View Post
Thanks for your reply Tim, 2 horse win/place is interesting.

I'm strictly a win bettor 1 horse spot player. I originally started off being a spot player. In 2 months I made 6 plays with 5 winners the lowest payoff was 9.80

I was doing my work at the Meadowlands and eventually started socializing with the regulars who sat near me. I wound up changing my style and allowed their influence affect my play.

I opened up a betting account and starting working from home. I still continued to bet too many races. But now I am finally back to my spot play regimen. I like to make 2 or 3 wagers a week.

This looks like a post I could have put up, if a forum like this were available
about 30 years ago. You reminded me of the times my friends would try to
give me a hard time about only placing a bet, sometimes,
once or twice a month back in the early '90s.
I knew I had a lot to learn so I wasn't in a rush to give back any $$$$$
if I scored nicely just a few days ago.

And about my friends.........well I'm still handicapping these days.
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