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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 05-02-2016, 12:17 AM   #61
Bill V.
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Back to sustained

Race 10 Even in its result chart to me this is a sustained runner
It was 4th 4 back in a 5 furlong race in the stretch

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Old 05-02-2016, 06:19 AM   #62
Mitch44
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Missed the last one Bill, by the time I was aware of it it had already gone off. Still having a problem logging into my Twinspires account. Something now with a certificate not being allowed etc.

FWIW I don't use the visual for the ESP of a horse, however matchup cappers depend on it. I'm a firm believer in the computer designation of a runners ESP. E.g. % median. A horse can go wire to wire and not be an early horse . % median is much more accurate and employs a consistent approach , especially where controversy occurs which will happen such as this example. Basically there are two approaches to this: visual and % median or the computer which has been thoroughly tested.
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Old 05-02-2016, 11:47 AM   #63
Bill V.
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position

I see what you are saying Mitch Doc did away with visual matching and went to percentage of the horses total energy for the ESP I look at both
plus the sticks on the Phase 1 TPR screen

About a visual running style,
I really am just looking at positions by eye ball scan
I already have issues with data providers, especially with beaten lengths, If they say a horse is 6.5 back can I trust it ? Well they probably guess or "average" based on whatever,
At least with position, I feel they have a better chance they get that part right.
I have been reading the Doc's advance concepts piece in PMTR
I see were he was using percent early which was the rating before medium energy, The formula EPR/TPR example EPR 85 / TPR 175 = 48.5
percent med is F1%+ F2%
Example from The velocity POR /POH screens in RDSS2.1

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Old 05-02-2016, 02:19 PM   #64
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Your right Bill the Doc did do away with the visual, however I think the matchup cappers depend on it. Let me say most as some may look at the computer designation but few indeed if following "The Hat's" teachings.

I'm well aware of the original % early that was in PMTR but shortly after getting into this I got Synergism and it had the new % median in it, it made sense to me as being better. The DOC was also very much into all 3 FR's. When I started looking at phase 1 & PMTR I had trouble making head or tails of % early. % Med. was more on a scale of 100 and I grasped it much easier vs, % early, also perhaps because I started out on % Med.
I'm not knocking % early and if that's all you have its good but it can't compare to % Med.

I think on the new TPR screen in RDSS 2 % early should be added along with its ESP as determined by that. So should DCL (advanced concept of PMTR be added but the new form of DCL not -12 or +5 etc.)

The problem with the computer generated ESP being at the top of a horses record /PP is few look at that stuff up there and being down on the TPR screen would make it jump off at them more. Actually the best of both worlds would be % early i.e. 51.35% and the ESP from % Med which is more effective, the best of both worlds. The % Med. should be readily available with the adjusted 3 Fr's already done etc. I'm technically not sure how the ESP at the top of a horses chart is obtained and assume its by % Med. A good ? for Ted. It would be best to have only one computer driven ESP in the program as a % Early on one screen and a % Med on another could confuse many. KISS However % Med. isn't generic to TPR.

What your doing Bill with TPR also is correct because the 1st Fr isn't given in TPR and its very smart to consult the horses chart for further decisions. Or like me just except the computer driven ESP etc. Also consulting the sticks on the early / late graphs which I review. At one time they taught (back in early 90's) that a horse can't change its running style and their somewhat locked into that style however over the years and experience has taught me that just isn't true for some horses who can adapt their style for todays matchup. This is easily can be detected on the early / late sticks or graphs. Most can not but there are exceptions , these types tend to win more races also. As I said before I set up my screens specifically to detect this when picking pace lines as I want to pick a line that matches their style and for those duel flexible horses a style for todays matchup they'll encounter.

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Old 05-02-2016, 05:05 PM   #65
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My apologies, i should have been more transparent. The “Running Styles” that i have posted are not based on the horse’s “typical” running style, but the surface. I am tracking the surface before i jump in and start betting, that and i prefer the horses to have a couple of recent running lines. I was under the impression that this surface plays fair and that there are no wild bias swings with Tapeta, at this point in time, i have to disagree.

Having said that, you made out fairly well on Saturday, impressive! It looks like you might have a new track to play with, nice work Bill!
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Old 05-20-2016, 05:59 PM   #66
Old Arkie Gal
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Well done Bill. I have found this and your other TPR discussions to be enlightening and entertaining. Comments by other board members have also been helpful. I am always impressed by variety of approaches that RDSS users take to find their winners. You certainly have your niche.
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Old 05-21-2016, 09:00 AM   #67
Bill V.
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Thank You

Thank you Pat
I am so blessed to have learned from Doc Sartin Jim Bradshaw, and Richie P
they gave me a solid foundation. PMTR has shown me what Doc told me many years ago. Bill keep it simple, Don't try to look at too many factors,
Have fun, Do what works for you,

Bill
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