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Old 06-15-2013, 10:21 PM   #1
lone speed
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Dissecting the Kentucky Derby paceline

Dissecting the Kentucky Derby Paceline:

Sometimes the universe works in strange ways…You see I was going to write a post about the Kentucky Derby paceline and using it by applying Jim Bradshaw’s “Marathon Matchup Method” after the Preakness but I bit my tongue and decided against posting my thoughts. After all, the Triple Crown races are just three races; unique in distance and in circumstances as most 3 year old colts will never compete at the unique distances of the Triple Crown races again.

I was reading an article about the half sister filly to Palace Malice written by Brad Free of DRF where Free also wrote about a handicapping angle:

Link:
http://www.drf.com/news/brad-free-ho...lice-does-good

Here is the excerpt:
Palace Malice reminded me of a handicapping angle related to Kentucky Derby speed. Churchill Downs’s Darren Rogers noted that horses good enough to set the pace in the Derby, regardless of finish, often are good enough to win Grade 1 races later on. Don’t believe it?

These Derby pacesetters since 1991 subsequently won Grade 1 races:

Year Horse (Derby finish) Grade 1 wins

1991 Sea Cadet (8th) Gulfstream Park Handicap, Meadowlands Cup
1996 Honour and Glory (18th) Metropolitan Handicap
1997 Free House (3rd) Pacific Classic, Santa Anita Handicap
2000 Hal’s Hope (16th) Gulfstream Park Handicap
2002 War Emblem (1st) Preakness, Haskell
2004 Lion Heart (2nd) Haskell
2007 Hard Spun (2nd) King’s Bishop
2008 Bob Black Jack (16th) Malibu
2011 Shackleford (4th) Preakness, Clark, Metropolitan
2013 Palace Malice (12th) Belmont




I believe that Cat Thief who finished in 3rd place to his stablemate, Charismatic from the 1999 Derby was left out as technically he didn’t set the pace but was up close in 2nd place right behind the pace setter until he was in front at the mile marker. Cat Thief won the Breeder’s Cup Classic at the end of his 3 year old season.

Imho, this article adds more credence to the “thesis” that horses who can set a strong pace “as the Kentucky Derby pace usually are”; have more ability versus the Kentucky Derby winners who win the Derby by “default” when the pace horses fade in the stretch due to the early pace duels and/or strong “torrid pace fractions.”

What major races after the Kentucky Derby did Monarchos, Strike the Gold, Gato del Sol, Mine That Bird and Giacomo win later on in their career??
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Old 06-16-2013, 09:44 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lone speed View Post
Dissecting the Kentucky Derby Paceline:

Sometimes the universe works in strange ways…You see I was going to write a post about the Kentucky Derby paceline and using it by applying Jim Bradshaw’s “Marathon Matchup Method” after the Preakness but I bit my tongue and decided against posting my thoughts. After all, the Triple Crown races are just three races; unique in distance and in circumstances as most 3 year old colts will never compete at the unique distances of the Triple Crown races again.

I was reading an article about the half sister filly to Palace Malice written by Brad Free of DRF where Free also wrote about a handicapping angle:

Link:
http://www.drf.com/news/brad-free-ho...lice-does-good

Here is the excerpt:
Palace Malice reminded me of a handicapping angle related to Kentucky Derby speed. Churchill Downs’s Darren Rogers noted that horses good enough to set the pace in the Derby, regardless of finish, often are good enough to win Grade 1 races later on. Don’t believe it?

These Derby pacesetters since 1991 subsequently won Grade 1 races:

Year Horse (Derby finish) Grade 1 wins

1991 Sea Cadet (8th) Gulfstream Park Handicap, Meadowlands Cup
1996 Honour and Glory (18th) Metropolitan Handicap
1997 Free House (3rd) Pacific Classic, Santa Anita Handicap
2000 Hal’s Hope (16th) Gulfstream Park Handicap
2002 War Emblem (1st) Preakness, Haskell
2004 Lion Heart (2nd) Haskell
2007 Hard Spun (2nd) King’s Bishop
2008 Bob Black Jack (16th) Malibu
2011 Shackleford (4th) Preakness, Clark, Metropolitan
2013 Palace Malice (12th) Belmont




I believe that Cat Thief who finished in 3rd place to his stablemate, Charismatic from the 1999 Derby was left out as technically he didn’t set the pace but was up close in 2nd place right behind the pace setter until he was in front at the mile marker. Cat Thief won the Breeder’s Cup Classic at the end of his 3 year old season.

Imho, this article adds more credence to the “thesis” that horses who can set a strong pace “as the Kentucky Derby pace usually are”; have more ability versus the Kentucky Derby winners who win the Derby by “default” when the pace horses fade in the stretch due to the early pace duels and/or strong “torrid pace fractions.”

What major races after the Kentucky Derby did Monarchos, Strike the Gold, Gato del Sol, Mine That Bird and Giacomo win later on in their career??
Nice post!

Just to reinforce your basic topic, early speed, here is something "DOC" wrote in the Paceline Manual.

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I'm going to go out on a limb here.
Here is my disclaimer. I DID NOT BET THIS RACE!!! I DID NOT BET ANY OF THE TRIPLE CROWN RACES.

The problem most people have, as I see it, is that they are not comfortable with betting on a horse that shows it faded coming down the stretch. What they don't understand is, just because the horse showed it faded coming down the stretch doesn't mean it will do that every time. In a race like the Belmont, it is even worse because of the distance. Horses that come from far behind look like they were tailor made for the distance, like ORB.

I went back and looked at the Belmont Stakes and treated it like it was any other race. I just threw out the pretenders (horses with a ML 20/1 or higher and the "filly") and picked lines for the rest. I didn't concern myself with whether or not Derby lines should be used. Like I said, I just treated it like any other race.

Here are my screen shots.

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Naturally, the eventual winner does not show up at the top of the BL/BK. Why? Because it faded coming down the stretch in the line used. So why use the line? Because I want to see which horse dominates the early fractions compared to the other early types in the race. Why? If there is one horse that can dominate the other early types in the race, that horse renders the other early types as non contenders. Other early types that can't keep up, can't close, so they are going nowhere in the race.

I renamed the "RS" for each horse. Notice there are 2 "E's", 3 "S's", 1 "SP" and 1 "P".

Notice on the "TPR screen that even though the #12 horse is in "green", denoting second, it is actually tied for 1st.

I'll leave this decision up to the reader, but if you use the top two horses on the BL/BL, don't you also have to use the horse that dominates the early part of the race and that is tied for 1st in total energy?

And also notice that using the "RS", the #12 appears to be the horse that will be sitting behind the leaders.

I seem to recall a saying that was popular a few years back..."SPEED KILLS". It applies to horse racing, too.
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Old 06-17-2013, 10:54 AM   #3
lone speed
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FTL...many thanks for your respected opinion...

FTL.

I want to thank you immensely for your time in posting a well respected opinion in this thread. I feel that I was given a invisible defense shield against dissenting forces with your contribution......

Huey Mahl's statement that the early pace has a telescopic effect on the rest of the race has great significance in analyzing this race...."Energy expended early will not be available late."

Thanks again...
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Old 06-17-2013, 07:53 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lone speed View Post
FTL.

I want to thank you immensely for your time in posting a well respected opinion in this thread. I feel that I was given a invisible defense shield against dissenting forces with your contribution......

Huey Mahl's statement that the early pace has a telescopic effect on the rest of the race has great significance in analyzing this race...."Energy expended early will not be available late."

Thanks again...
Your welcome, but I'm not sure how much of a "invisible defense shield" it is.

In the past I have taken hits for posting about races after the fact. Obviously the people that complain are just not aware of the fact that every race is approached in the same manner as the race before AND after it. I don't cherry pick races and I don't tailor the approach to the race(s) in order to get the winner. That would defeat the entire purpose of what I am trying to show, which is a logical, consistent approach that will get winners, not all of them, but many of them and some with significant prices.

If anything, I fear I may have put you in the line of fire!!
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Old 06-19-2013, 02:12 AM   #5
lone speed
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Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
Your welcome, but I'm not sure how much of a "invisible defense shield" it is.

In the past I have taken hits for posting about races after the fact. Obviously the people that complain are just not aware of the fact that every race is approached in the same manner as the race before AND after it. I don't cherry pick races and I don't tailor the approach to the race(s) in order to get the winner. That would defeat the entire purpose of what I am trying to show, which is a logical, consistent approach that will get winners, not all of them, but many of them and some with significant prices.

If anything, I fear I may have put you in the line of fire!!
For The Lead,

You have my upmost respect for your concise and consistent approach to paceline selection and contender evaluations. Whether it is before the fact or after the fact. Your consistent guidelines and evaluation steps are set in stone as you have alluded to the Paceline manual many times.

I am a little surprised that in your posted Rdss Belmont readouts, Palace Malice was tied for the top spot on Energy. I was not surprised that Palace Malice won the Belmont.

Palace Malice fits the profile of previous high early energy horses like Ruhlmann and Fly Till Dawn and many others who showed Grade One pace fractions for the early pace before fading down the stretch. These type of energy horses are often overlooked by the betting public when they are placed in longer distances. Public perceptions are that if they faded at shorter distances; certainly they will fade in longer distances....It is an optical illusion that a closer like Orb who won the Derby will cherish the mile and a half Belmont. It is important to make note that Orb did not win the Derby with a great sustained energy. Orb won because the front field of the early pace collapsed from the extreme fast fractions.

It is best to think in horsepower....which type of horses expend the most horsepower....The high energy early pace horse who can set a extreme pace fraction and run a respectable last fraction relative to the early pace and the high sustained energy horse who can run a breathtaking sustained fraction. Verrazano just ran a breathtaking sustained fraction in last week's Pegasus stakes at Monmouth.

For The Lead, your Rdss readout for the Belmont and analysis is consistent with all of your race presentations in the Teaching section. You are a poster with integrity and unselfishness that resonates with the spirit of the Sartin Methodology...

Many thanks for your contributions!!!
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Old 06-20-2013, 03:19 AM   #6
lone speed
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1986 Derby Chart-Snow Chief's running line

It has been 27 years since Bill Shoemaker guided Ferdinand to victory in the Kentucky Derby in a field that included Groovy who set a blazing pace for six furlongs in the Derby and the race favorite, Snow Chief.

If we look at the result chart and focus on the running line of Snow Chief; we find a striking resemblance to the running line of Oxbow. Both of these horses ran too close to the hot pace of their respective Derby but both were able to prevail and win their next start in the Preakness Stakes.

Patterns repeating; even after 27 years...

Focus on Snow Chief in the Derby result chart:
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Now we zoom in on Oxbow in the Derby result chart:
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It is important to take into consideration that when a horse sets a super fast pace in the Derby; he is not guaranteed to win the next race. Sometimes, they injured themselves and they will never race again. They blow a "gasket" so to speak. The huge energy exertions took a toll on their muscles. We can include Songandprayer, Spanish Chestnut and Bodemeister to name a few who had to be retired soon after their Derby exertions.

I am displaying the result chart of Verranzano's victory in the Pegasus Stakes to point out his strong sustained fraction. Verranzano also ran like Oxbow and Snow Chief in the Derby as Verranzano also chased the fast early pace before faltering down the stretch.

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(IMHO)These examples give us some guidance to focus on the horses that ran close to the Derby pace even though they didn't finish well at the end of the Derby race. Sometimes, they might reward followers of the "Derby pace" angle with some rewarding mutuels in the race after the Derby.
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Old 07-31-2013, 02:17 PM   #7
lone speed
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http://www.drf.com/news/dick-jerardi...erby-pace-play

I thought the above link to the article by Drf writer puts an exclamation point on this thread...imho...
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