New Pace performance request

[BJennet]

I know that a number of people here have been using New Pace on various tracks, and some, like Mike Sal, have been posting results for some of them. I was wondering if anyone else has compiled any NP performance stats based on samples of at least 200 races at any individual tracks.

It seems to me, from what I've seen so far, that there's relatively little deviation from the 73-74% average for all NP winners at most tracks, but I believe that there may be some that deviate more widely from this average, and am interested in knowing which these are. For instance, Mike recently posted a sample of 100 races from PARX, with only 64 NP winners, which I believe would also be true for a larger sample.

For what I'm looking into right now, I'd be interested to know if there's anyone observing success for NP (over 74% winners) at any of the following tracks: HAW, FG, AP, OP, LRL, SUF, or RP.

BTW, I'm looking only for samples including the basic four NP contenders with no filters or other factors added.

Thanks for any help.

Cheers,

B. Jennet

[rmath]

I only have 178 races at AQU so far. These are the ones that I ran for the Pic 4 contest, so there are a lot of Mdn. races with many first timers in them.
NP only 149/178 wins .837
103 /178 exactas .579

I hope this is what you want. I only keep win and place records and only the win payoffs. I am not interested in the exactas as I only bet to win or win & place if the odds are high enough. These %s are a little higher than at other tracks. Aqu appears to be an exceptionally favorable track to the NP numbers.

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by rmath

I only have 178 races at AQU so far. These are the ones that I ran for the Pic 4 contest, so there are a lot of Mdn. races with many first timers in them.
NP only 149/178 wins .837
103 /178 exactas .579

I hope this is what you want. I only keep win and place records and only the win payoffs. I am not interested in the exactas as I only bet to win or win & place if the odds are high enough. These %s are a little higher than at other tracks. Aqu appears to be an exceptionally favorable track to the NP numbers.

Hi Rich,

Thanks very much, this is exactly what I was looking for, and the inclusion of maidens or races with FTS is irrelevant. I think this should be useful to any paceandcap clients who are reading this. BTW, have to say that I'm surprised by the result, because I'm trying to develop a theory that would explain NP performance, and these AQU stats would contradict it. Back to the drawing board!

Cheers,

B Jennet

[rmath]

Updated Aqu NP,
196 races
165 wins .842
114 exactas .582
I will keep you posted if you still need this info.
rmath

[mikesal57]

BJ...your going to find a hard time getting results from other tracks here on New Pace
besides Pino and Rich , I have tried to draw out NP users here and at Pace Advantage with not much luck..
Either there is no advantage or they are holding out on how they use it..
Just recently Dorianmode has joined in and shows us how he uses it as a "tool" in his handicapping approach.

In post #73, in my thread, I gave some results at other tracks ...comments?
Mike


P.S. - Even its creator is a no-show

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by rmath

Updated Aqu NP,
196 races
165 wins .842
114 exactas .582
I will keep you posted if you still need this info.
rmath

Hi Rich,

Thanks for this update, but I think an update every one or two hundred races would be sufficient. My feeling is that the variance of NP's intra-track hit rate, as opposed to the track-to-track varianceof its hit-rate is low enough that even 200 races is providing a good picture of its performance.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

BJ...your going to find a hard time getting results from other tracks here on New Pace
besides Pino and Rich , I have tried to draw out NP users here and at Pace Advantage with not much luck..
Either there is no advantage or they are holding out on how they use it..
Just recently Dorianmode has joined in and shows us how he uses it as a "tool" in his handicapping approach.

In post #73, in my thread, I gave some results at other tracks ...comments?
Mike


P.S. - Even its creator is a no-show

Hi Mike,

I think Ted was a bit overly optimistic that there would be much research done on this product. NP has been out for nearly a year now - long enough for most users to realize that it's going to lose money under most conditions, and is basically a niche product. It's possible that a few beside Pino and yourself have found some of these, but as I've said, I think these are more likely to be track-type and clas- specific, rather than applying only to individual tracks. NP was designed as a one-size-fits-all product, often to its detriment, but it also means that what works at one track should work at similar tracks.

BTW, I did comment on your race-summary post #73, if you want to take a look. Not to repeat everything, but if you continue to want to find value in win-betting NP, set your minimum bet no lower than 10-1, and include all above that level (or whatever you choose as an upper limit), and then recalculate and see if it can get into the black. As I said, I think exotic betting looks much more promising.

Since the posting on this subject is, as you say, barely existent, I'll try to PM you when I have more time.

BTW, please don't take anything Dave says about the profit potential of his products seriously.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[Dave Schwartz]

BJ,

Amazing. Still provoking as I see.

For a guy who doesn't have the product you sure pretend to know a lot a lot about it. But then, you pretend to know a lot about a lot of things, don't you?



Dave Schwartz

[Bill V.]

hello Dave

I just did a quick search and you have not posted anything in the open area
of pace and cap since mid October yet a soon as a few NP comments show up, so do you.

There have been many races that a few of us have posted. No pressure here ever at Pace and Cap. Just trying to help each other. Nice ideas and screen shots and congrats to winners every time. We all do what we can, each using our own methods and or ideas. Some people wait till the race is run and offer lessons on what we have done, The lessons are to help us see what could have lead to a winner,and I appreciate that highly. Yet I have never seen you post a New Pace look at a race neither before or after the fact.

JBennet has added great examples of the value of two staples of the Sartin
Methodology Total Energy and VDC

I respect that J believes in what he feels are important to winning
just as you feel NP is important. The difference is we have it in black and white in the follow ups about Total Energy and VDC.When we ask for race examples and testing results for NP the response is small and from what I notice not too good.
But to be fair I don't pay that close attention to NP only because I just can't imagine Howard Satin rating a horses total past performance especially today when poly turf routes sprints bull ring track racinos
4.5 distance sprints are often all interwoven in a 10 race PP
So JBennet is open minded in non support Its your job to educate in an fair open forum the value of your product as a winning tool not a sales item
I did it for years under Doc's watch with Validator and RDSS Ted does races and show examples of RDSS all the time There is no question Teds confidence
in RDSS Why not show us NP in action in real time races After the fact is fine
if your more comfortable
Thanks
Bill V

[gl45]

BJ,
Tampa from 12-28-2011 to yesterday races.
NP contenders at 4-1 or better win only in 243 races.
If $2 bet was made for each NP horse at 4-1 or better, we would have made 613 bets for a total of $1,260.00 and win 54 races (4%) $1,037.50 for a loss of $228.50 with an average of $19.21 per race.

Winners
E1 = 12 ......$172.00 avg....$14.33
E2 = 12 ......$195.50 avg....$16.29
L1 = 11 ......$159.80 avg....$14.53
L2 = 13 ......$319.20 avg....$24.55
Tie= 6 .....$191.00 avg....$31.83

Ex. year to date +$2.40