Midland333 Entry @ Woodbine

[Hoof 11]

Our good friend Midland333 (Mike Robitaille) has a horse entered at Woodbine on Sunday Aug 30/15.

His horse Indiscreet Cat is running in Race 4, a $20K N2L Claiming race. He asked me to have a look at the race and anyone else for that matter that happens to have the card. I’ll have a better review tomorrow when i have had some more time to look at the race, but upon first glance the race looks wide open.

The 3 year old gelding looks solid, 2 good starts and he really hasn’t shown his full potential yet, not to mention the connections are outstanding (Baker/Contreras).

Feel free to chime in.

[Ted Craven]

Greetings from the Blue Ridge mountains of Virginia! Thanks for putting this up Gil; Mike asked me my opinion yesterday too, so here's a look. Not sure if for Win, but might get a piece of the action. On sale for same price as last claimed ...?





Good luck Mike. Welcome to the Claim Game. Next stop --> Travers!

Ted

[Hoof 11]

1 – Needs slow fractions. Toss

1A – Possible pace setter, was sniffing last time out, possible down cycle. Contender

2 – Broke his maiden last time out, could be a possible climber but could have hit his ceiling at the same time with a faster pace scenario today. Good late numbers under the same jock. Contender

3 – Two good starts, exiting a key race finishing 3rd, where the 2nd and 4th place finishers have gone onto win next time out. Layoff should help with a higher form projection, banking on this fellow to show us a liitle more. Contreras will rate this horse properly, jock/horse have the ability to close. Win Contender

4 – Toss
5 – Toss
6 – Toss

7 – This one has my interest, training well coming off a 77 day layoff with competitive numbers. Horse appears to be a climber and is dropping back down to a suitable class level. Pace might be a concern, but i project him to run above his previous numbers. Top ten connections with a positive ROI coming off a layoff. Win Contender

8 – Distance does not suit, possible pace setter, down cycle in form. Toss

Pace Projection – 22.5 – 45.5

Selections – 7 – 3

[Bill Lyster]

1A and 8 for the lead; 8 gained on faster pace; chronic fader but might have enuf

7 off pace, closed 5-4-2-1 to finish 116.8 - the best finish time for a winner. Might be too far back today.

#3 looks to run a little closer to pace than 7

7 and 3 to win; 8 and 1A to place.

[Hoof 11]

That was unfortunate, the horse seemed to have a problem in the second turn and lost all momentum, i hope he just gassed out and doesn’t have any serious problems. You’ll get em next time Mike, he’s a good horse.

It seems uncle Ted hit the super cold, based upon his paceline selections. Nice work!

[dandy68]

since I am new and still learning, I would like to know what pace lines for 8 and 6 led hoof11 and others that tossed 8 and 6 to come to that decision. ted use a 5 F for #8 and a 7 F FOR #6. when ted gets back from his travels, perhaps he can shed more light on whether those 8 and 6 pace lines were his choice or the RDSS2 choice.

[Hoof 11]

Originally Posted by dandy68

since I am new and still learning, I would like to know what pace lines for 8 and 6 led hoof11 and others that tossed 8 and 6 to come to that decision. ted use a 5 F for #8 and a 7 F FOR #6. when ted gets back from his travels, perhaps he can shed more light on whether those 8 and 6 pace lines were his choice or the RDSS2 choice.

As far as Ted is concerned, his lines were his own based on the “Secondary Contenders” in his readouts. I re-ran the automated paceline selections (“Last Line” and “Best of last 3”) and they were much different than Ted’s as you can see below. I will let Ted explain his thinking as far as his paceline selections are concerned.

[Hoof 11]

The 8 horse.

As for me, my main objective was the “win”, i wasn’t handicapping vertically in this race. The 8 horse had a few things going for him. He was sniffing in his last two Allowance races and was dropping back down to a suitable class level today. The horse never finished out of the money in consecutive races. The horse had the best “Total Energy” rating of the field, but could he reproduce that today?

Having said all that, there were a few things that bothered me about this horse. The 8 seems to give a peak effort every 4 starts, with an adjusted speed rating of 80 to 84 in those starts. The horse ran a peak effort 2 starts ago and more than likely would run somewhere in the neighborhood of a 78 today (which wouldn’t be enough for the win). The horse seems to be at his best in 5F races, if you look at lines 2-6-10 from the 8 horse, he made up ground in all those starts in the stretch, whereas in his 6F or longer races, he lost ground in the stretch in all of those starts. In my opinion the horse should fade today, that’s why i mentioned that the distance does not suit this horse, it was a judgement call, sometimes you’re right, and sometimes you’re a donkey.

[Hoof 11]

The 6 horse

This geldings MO is that he puts together two good starts and then one poor start. He had a poor finish last time out therefore today he should be sniffing ITM. But there were a couple of things that bothered me about this horse, if you look at his “Adjusted Speed Ratings”, his ceiling is around 80-82, and he ran that in his last two starts. I was banking on this horse to run in the high 70’s today which made him an unlikely win candidate. The one race that he has won was a 6F race with a final time of 1:13.2, that doesn’t get me all warm and fuzzy for a win today.

[Hoof 11]

One other thing that i forgot to mention about the 6 horse.

If you look at line 7, the horse ran a 8.5F race on Oct 24th, this was a conditioning race, a trainer will take a sprinter and run him in a route with the hope that the route will condition the horse when he cutbacks to a sprint. In his next two starts he came bangin with a place finish next time out, and then a win in his second start after the route. He doesn't have that luxury today, so the win projection is slim to none.

If you ever see a typical sprinter move to a route for one race, watch what the horse does over his/her next 3 starts.