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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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07-28-2019, 01:40 PM | #151 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Sometimes things dont work out for the best
Saturday in the 6th at Parx I did a race with Energy the horse on top went off 9-1. Following FTL'S guidelines I did notice the horse was dropping from a open 10000 claimer to a 7500n4l. He won the race but got got DQD for coming over on the 2nd place horse( Ive seen worse and they left it up). Energy continues to amaze me how such a old program still does the trick and the variegate is so accurate. Thanks FTL and Bill for your help using this program Jeff |
07-28-2019, 02:27 PM | #152 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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2 and 6
hello jeff
I just watched the replay, The 6 ran well, I would have been worried about his +18 on the Early/Late and his below80 LPR He won the race on the drop from open 10 claimers but I would have to agree with the decision to dq Nice call on the 6 too bad about the DQ |
07-28-2019, 04:42 PM | #153 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Thanks Bill glad you put up the PP'S
I know he had a big early stick but thought he could overcome the deficient late. Anyway he owned the 1st two fractions in Energy and race variegated early which he was 1st so at 9-1 thought would give it a shot. As far as the DQ like I said I have seen worse with nothing being done Hope your feeling better and tell Dad hi Jeff |
07-29-2019, 01:26 PM | #154 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: central islip ny
Posts: 1,090
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dq
the trainer of the horse which was moved up used to train one of my horses at Suffolk. I am sure he was happy to be moved up. He was at that time a big bettor.
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08-25-2019, 12:08 PM | #155 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Bill
Was wondering if you had a cutoff point odds wise on betting a horse to win, Im not sure if he ever posted it but would be interested with FTL as well If anyone else wants to chime in feel free to do so Jeff |
08-25-2019, 01:19 PM | #156 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Thanks Parts hope your doing fine
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08-25-2019, 01:38 PM | #157 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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When I did the summary of his posts, FTL said his cutoff was 4/1 and he concentrated on early horses.
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08-25-2019, 04:03 PM | #158 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,124
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Pretty unfair if you ask me. I enjoy your selection post and by the way thanks for the invite.
Tim
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Trust but verify |
08-25-2019, 10:28 PM | #159 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Thanks Bill
Sorry Parts |
08-25-2019, 11:56 PM | #160 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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5/2
Hello Jeff
When I was betting to win my cutoff was 5/2. Of course, today who knows if you get 5/2 when you bet You might get 2/1 or less with late money pouring in As Bill L pointed out. FTL was very selective and waited for 4/1 Today I am a horizontal bettor so I must take a few low price horses or else have a very big bankroll and be very selective in my plays This wait for value approach is a goal. It is sound and worth working for |
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