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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 01-16-2018, 11:20 AM   #1
Jeebs
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Identifying "Pass" races

One of my key "leaks" in this game - and it's a weakness for most players - is playing too many races, specifically, races that in reality, are unplayable. Most of the time, races are unplayable or borderline playable because there are multiple unknown factors at play. Some of the unknowns are obvious (FTS, a horse changing distance/surface structure for the first time, et.al), while others are more subtle (aberrant track variant, a "DQ'd/Placed" line, et.al). These unknowns can be minefields when trying to select the correct lines which in turn, will set the table for today's match-up.

I'll give the example of what I believe to be a "pass" race riddled with unknowns in today's 2nd race at Parx. On the surface, it is a 6F sprint for older horses, running for a $7500 tag and which have never won 4 races. Once you dig in a little bit, you find a race that is very hard to have much trust or confidence in with serious money.

Here were my lines and my personal comments:

#1 - Line 4. Line 1 was an off-track "just miss" at Penn. In its 3 previous starts before the win, it had raced "out of condition", running in n4L while still eligible for n3L conditions. Line 4 was the best of its last 3 fast track lines (BLT/C for short) at a similar dist/surf structure. I deemed this runner as an unknown factor because it is wheeling back off a 4 day rest and we have no idea whether the last race (which is better on TE and Percept than our selected line) is indicative of today's probable efforts due to the fact that it was over an off-track.

#2 - Line 3. I did not consider Line 1 not only due to trip trouble, but because of the -56 track variant, a byproduct of what appears to have been a frozen strip. Line 2 was a toss due to the jock losing its irons. Line 3 was its BLT/C based on TE and Percept. I feel that this line accurately depicts this one's true ability under normal circumstances.

#3 - Line 3. The horse routed in Line 1 (a nose win) and has carried good form over its last several starts. Line 3 is the BLT/C and I have strong confidence in that choice of line.

#4 - Line 3. Its last 2 starts were dull routes. Line 3 was its best recent sprint line, although it is really a toss-up between Lines 3 and 5 as far as "best" is concerned. I considered this horse to be an unknown commodity because it has to run back to its Monmouth form from the spring/summer to be competitive in this race. Since it was claimed, it has not shown up going long (poor placement?) and drops to the lower tag for low% connections.

#5 - Line 4. Line 1 was a "just miss" runner-up at boxcar odds, but the -56 variant renders the line unusable, masking its true ability, which isn't much to write home about. Line 4 was clearly its BLT/C of the other lines. Unless the last start was a "great leap forward" this horse is a non-contender.

#6 - Line 1. You can make a case for Line 2, but Line 1 conforms more to its energy style.

#7 - Line 2. BLT/C. However, it shows no Parx form/lines in the RDSS box, therefore it is unknown if this one can carry its Laurel form into Parx.

#8 - Line 6. Considering that 9 out of 10 lines are routes, Line 6 is the default sprint line and it wasn't pretty. With limited sprint info, its route races render it as an unknown commodity.

#9 - Line 5. I didn't put much stock into Line 2 as a trouble line. Once you remove Lines 3 and 4, Line 1, 2 and 5 are the comparable lines, with Line 5 being the BLT/C. Straightforward line selection.

#10 - Line 1. BLT/C. However, it is coming back off a 190 day layoff. You can either treat the horse as if it ran yesterday (which some do), or view the long layoff with some skepticism (it was claimed for $7500 and was in the barn for nearly 6 months after the claim). It is the 2-1 ML favorite. Can it run back as if it ran yesterday? Perhaps. Is it worth gambling on that happening at short odds? Not particularly. The long layoff off the claim is an unknown factor worth noting.

By my count, I found SIX runners with "unknowns" in my analysis of the race. With that many "what ifs" or "can its" in the race, the race just appears too risky of a proposition to take seriously. In my own play, I will simply pass and find a better opportunity.

FWIW, here is my BL/BL for the lines selected.

Name:  blbl.png
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Are the standards that I applied too stringent? Or do you think that my take on this race is an accurate one?
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Old 01-16-2018, 12:31 PM   #2
Jeebs
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To summarize the Unknown Factors:

#1 - Short rest plus off-track runner-up finish renders true form unknown.
#2 - No issues.
#3 - No issues.
#4 - Monmouth sprint form from summer might not carry over.
#5 - Runner-up finish on unusually fast surface renders true form unknown.
#6 - No issues.
#7 - Laurel form may or may not carry over to Parx.
#8 - One sprint line (Line 6) from last 10 races.
#9 - No issues.
#10 - 190 day layoff off the claim. Horse may or may not be who it was before.
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Old 01-16-2018, 12:37 PM   #3
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#1 is scratched. I'll presume either 1) the horse was cross-entered between Parx and Penn or 2) Parx stewards didn't like the 4 day turnaround.

New BL/BL:
Name:  blbl2.png
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Old 01-16-2018, 12:57 PM   #4
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Hi Tim. I ended up with the same pace lines as you. Profit and prime have the same top 3 4-9-10 and when that is the case one of them wins 84% of the time. I found this an iffy race and I'm passing.
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Old 01-16-2018, 01:06 PM   #5
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I can't complain. IMO, my gut about this being a "pass" race was correct. #10 looked the part IF it could run as if it was back yesterday. 7/2 odds was a little higher than expected, but the other tiers (2-4) were underlaid. 10-3-9-2 was the order at the end.

I hope that I added something of value here by posting this race and my thought process.
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Old 01-16-2018, 01:17 PM   #6
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Didn't get to see this in time to comment. Trainer is 17% overall and 11% off 90+ days layoff and 17% claim repeater so he is competent and horse is at right class considering race etc. odds not bad as he towered over others in race. It really came down to what odds you would accept.
7/2 wasn't bad , 9-5 would make the decision easy.

Trust your instincts there's another race in 20 minutes or so.


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Old 01-16-2018, 01:29 PM   #7
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Nice work Tim. I,like you, don't mind a pass here. Out of the 4-9-10 I tossed the 9 due to having a large bal and weak w/o pattern. The 10 had a non Sartin angle going but given the layoff and weak workout pattern [1 3f work a 5yr old]] since Oct. I wanted longer odds. The 4 had a 5f work in the last 31 days[5yrold] for a poor trainer 0-2 rt to sprint and 0-4 2nd off layoff who claimed it from Parx leading trainer and horse showed nothing in 2 races since then vs better. now drops. Too many questions not enough answers for me.
Tim




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Old 01-16-2018, 01:57 PM   #8
Jeebs
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Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
Nice work Tim. I,like you, don't mind a pass here. Out of the 4-9-10 I tossed the 9 due to having a large bal and weak w/o pattern. The 10 had a non Sartin angle going but given the layoff and weak workout pattern [1 3f work a 5yr old]] since Oct. I wanted longer odds. The 4 had a 5f work in the last 31 days[5yrold] for a poor trainer 0-2 rt to sprint and 0-4 2nd off layoff who claimed it from Parx leading trainer and horse showed nothing in 2 races since then vs better. now drops. Too many questions not enough answers for me.
Tim




Tim
McCaslin has always been a dangerous trainer in the Mid-Atlantic. I didn't post it, but #10 was the top Rx3 tier runner. As Mitch stated, it came down to what price that you were willing to take on #10. As you said, too many questions, not enough answers.

"Other factors" prevailed here (if you're a BL/BL guy) and that's OK. It's a "win" in the sense that it didn't cost me a dime! 😁
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Old 01-16-2018, 02:45 PM   #9
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Indeed it was my #1 RX3 also and #2 bl/bl. If it weren't for the l/o or if it had a recent[within 14 days] 5f w/o I would have accept 7/2 but it didn't and as been stated numerous times one must be consistent in ones approach. Sometimes you eat the bear sometimes the bear eats you. Onto the next race.
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Old 01-16-2018, 05:26 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Jeebs View Post

Are the standards that I applied too stringent? Or do you think that my take on this race is an accurate one?
Without PP's to follow along with it's hard to say.
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