Saturday, December 12

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

3 1 10 7

Nice one Jim

Yup that most certainly works Jim!

[MJS6916]

Originally Posted by clore1030

Thanks Rich, that means a lot coming from you.

I look at the last three races of a comparable distance. If the horse has a perceptor rating within that three that is ranked either 2nd or 3rd, I will use the top-ranked perceptor line.

But only if the top-ranked perceptor line is within 4 speed rating points. This is something I determined through trial and error. My theory was that it gives me a horse that is fit enough to reach his peak, but it keeps me from falling for a speed rating that is way out of whack.

The horse was close enough last time out in a race that came after a three month layoff. It struck me as fit and ready.

When clore1030 mentions "last three races of a comparable distance", I'm guessing that's within a 1/2 furlong of todays race.

Also, does it matter how many pacelines back any of the last 3 at the comp distance are? or how many days back from today?

[DanBoals]

Hey there MJS6916,

There is a lot of debate on paceline selection. What Howard Sartin told me, and what works well for me in most situations, is use the last line unless there is a good reason not to use it, and a better line is available.

I recently have been using lines further back than ever before, especially on high class and turf races, and have had success in doing so. One of the angles I am currently having success with, is when a trainer brings a horse off a layoff that has a good turf routing history, then runs it a few times in dirt sprints, it looks pathetic, then switches to a turf rout and wins at decent odds.

A friend of mine here on the site is a big fan of starting with the horse's oldest line listed and going forward through the pacelines to get a feel for the horse and then select the line that suits today's race. This is not something I have a lot of experience with, but I believe once I master it , it will open up some new possibilities for me.

I hate to say it, but paceline selection is something that must be practiced to be mastered. After every race, go back over your pacelines and rework them to get the "correct" answer. By going back over your lines, you will see where you can improve and you will learn by doing.

Best of luck,

Dan

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by MJS6916

When clore1030 mentions "last three races of a comparable distance", I'm guessing that's within a 1/2 furlong of todays race.

Also, does it matter how many pacelines back any of the last 3 at the comp distance are? or how many days back from today?

I'll go with a furlong when I'm dealing with seasoned horses. I'll even use a 7F race in handicapping an 8F one even though the shorter distance is considered a sprint and the longer one called a route.

Your mileage may vary, the Sartin methodology may vary but it's my money on the line and I'll blame myself if I'm wrong.

As far as the date issue goes, I try to stick to the last 90 days but the game has changed, horses don't run as frequently as they did when I started in the 70s. If a race has two entrants who haven't raced in 90 days, I'll pass it entirely. But that's part of my "two unknowns" rule - I don't wager when there are two things on which I think that I'm truly guessing as opposed to predicting based on current criteria.

That's probably not much help but I'm a spot player now, I look at the races every day, but I've got tons of rules designed to keep me in the black. It's too much effort these days for me to crunch numbers and do all sorts of bookkeeping on stats - my eyes have deteriorated so and a lot of that is owing to strain from handicapping as well as my having to crunch numbers from Nielsen rating books for 30 years.

So, knowing my strengths and avoiding my weak areas such as cheap claimers, grass maidens and 2-year-olds, I keep my hand in, but only enough where it's still fun and pays for itself.

[MJS6916]

Thank you Dan and clore1030.

Some good stuff there.


more profits to you,
Mike