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06-24-2015, 02:13 PM | #11 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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4 points
Hi Ted
Do you have any idea why I am getting a 4 point difference in the adjusted speed rating using Val 4 as opposed to rdss val 4 with sliders and default settings? |
06-24-2015, 03:01 PM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Bill, I'm not sure where you got the 83 SR from in the last line for the #2 in RDSS Val4 mode. Perhaps try regenerating that race and look again?
Using these Config Settings (i.e. 'Val4 Emulation') - I get this Adjusted screen and related Adjusted SRs for the #2 in this race, which compares pretty well with your Val4 Adjusted screen (given the small differences in adjusted times which are usually due to valuation of time values of DTV and ITV points): Code:
PID0623 8 5.5 D CL 3+ $19,000 CP=$25,000 8:20PM 3/7 JOCK/TRAIN R W P S W% R W P S EARNINGS W% EPS R MARTINEZ, WILL 68 13 11 6 19 LIFE 8 2 1 0 25,325 25 3,166 4 STEFFEE, JED 6 1 1 1 17 CURR 3 1 1 0 12,951 33 4,317 2 PAST 5 1 0 0 12,375 20 2,475 5 ML= 9/2 D-SP 8 2 1 0 25,328 25 3,166 5 2 D J SOUL SISTA AGE=4 OFF-D COMMENT: EQUALIZED, NORMALIZED AND ADJUSTED L DAYSTRK RCODISTSd 1STC 2NDC FINC BL1 BL2 BLS BLF SR ESP L PI 1[ 16PID 5FT 6.5D 22.9 45.8 104.6 0.15 1.50 0.15 3.00 78 1 ] 2[ 34PID 6FT 5.5D 23.2 47.1 105.3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 77 2 ] 3 88OP 3FT 6.0D 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 285PID 8FT 6.0D 22.8 45.8 104.6 0.00 0.00 1.80 9.80 71 4 5 309PID 1FT 6.0D 23.2 46.2 105.6 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 76 5 6 334PID 4FT 5.5D 22.5 46.4 105.2 0.20 0.20 0.70 3.80 74 6 7 350PID 2FT 6.0D 23.4 46.5 104.6 0.00 0.50 1.70 11.40 70 7 8 366PID 8FT 5.5D 22.3 46.2 105.1 7.10 11.60 6.60 7.50 71 8 Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
06-24-2015, 06:48 PM | #13 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
wrong 83
Hi Ted
here is what i see I am using probably using an out of date version of RDSS |
06-24-2015, 09:19 PM | #14 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Quote:
Early Pace Advantage As Ted alluded to about the early pace matchup in this race: Before one goes to the B/L screen, it behooves one to evaluate the energy screen and to analyze the matchup of the 1st and second call of the match-up as the example screen attached. |
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06-24-2015, 09:33 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Form Cycle patterns repeating over and over...
Another viewpoint is that this horse will make its third "extended" effort off a major layoff of 200 days from last Sept.11, 2014....
Its first race back at OP or Oaklawn Park; it worked out 4 furlongs and then stopped. It ran to the 4 furlongs maker in a respectable 46 and change...Great workout for 4 furlongs and faded out of the race by over 30 lengths. Then in its second race on May 20 at PID, it ran a winning race at 5 and 1/2 F running late. Finally, in its last paceline, this horse ran early and faded after chasing a six furlong fractions of 109.7 and fading by three lengths at the finish line. Now, form cycle enthusiasts will say that today will be its third race back and it is ready for a major "effort" besting its previous by several lengths. Today, this horse might run that "83" expected "major effort" today at 83 rating last paceline at a 78 second paceline at 77 |
06-25-2015, 10:22 AM | #16 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
line 1
Hi Late kick
Ted and lonespeed give excellent examples of handicapping, which is fine , If you or anybody wishes to just wagercap Which does work too , actually it works very well, You will miss this $11.00 winner. The first clue to any race you wagercap that goes bad as this one did, should always be to check your pace lines I see from your op that you used the last line for every horse This can be a little red flag . I am not saying it never happens but if you check in all the follow ups from let's say 72 on up to 88 you will see hardly any examples of winning readouts were every line chosen was from the last line ACTUALLY looking at races on pace and cap you too will find very few with line 1 only |
06-25-2015, 10:32 AM | #17 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
not wrong
In addition and to clarify. I am not saying if you happen to choose
and end up with a race were every horse,s last line is the line. This is not a bad thing. I only feel based on evidence from the follow Ups and here is that it's rare. , Maybe a 4th or 5th Vdc horse might get you . as not every horse will improve off It.s best recent effort. |
06-26-2015, 12:52 AM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 389
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Hey Bill, i know what you are saying. Its very rare for me to use the last line for every horse but that just the way it happened in this race and i missed the extreme pace advantage this horse had in this race which should have made me realize that his extremely easy lead could make him tough. Thanks for all the responses i am glad i got to work this one over with you guys.
Belmont tourney tommorow, wish me luck. |
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