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Old 06-24-2015, 02:13 PM   #11
Bill V.
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4 points

Hi Ted
Do you have any idea why I am getting a 4 point difference in the adjusted speed
rating using Val 4 as opposed to rdss val 4 with sliders and default settings?
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Old 06-24-2015, 03:01 PM   #12
Ted Craven
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Bill, I'm not sure where you got the 83 SR from in the last line for the #2 in RDSS Val4 mode. Perhaps try regenerating that race and look again?

Using these Config Settings (i.e. 'Val4 Emulation') -

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I get this Adjusted screen and related Adjusted SRs for the #2 in this race, which compares pretty well with your Val4 Adjusted screen (given the small differences in adjusted times which are usually due to valuation of time values of DTV and ITV points):

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Code:
             PID0623 8 5.5 D CL 3+  $19,000 CP=$25,000 8:20PM               3/7
JOCK/TRAIN       R   W   P   S   W%        R  W  P  S  EARNINGS   W%      EPS  R
MARTINEZ, WILL  68  13  11   6   19 LIFE   8  2  1  0    25,325   25    3,166  4
STEFFEE, JED     6   1   1   1   17 CURR   3  1  1  0    12,951   33    4,317  2
                                    PAST   5  1  0  0    12,375   20    2,475  5
ML= 9/2                             D-SP   8  2  1  0    25,328   25    3,166  5
  2 D J SOUL SISTA           AGE=4  OFF-D
 COMMENT:
                      EQUALIZED, NORMALIZED AND ADJUSTED
L DAYSTRK RCODISTSd 1STC  2NDC  FINC   BL1   BL2   BLS   BLF  SR  ESP     L PI
1[  16PID 5FT 6.5D  22.9  45.8 104.6  0.15  1.50  0.15  3.00  78          1    ]
2[  34PID 6FT 5.5D  23.2  47.1 105.3  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  77          2    ]
3   88OP  3FT 6.0D  0.0   0.0   0.0
4  285PID 8FT 6.0D  22.8  45.8 104.6  0.00  0.00  1.80  9.80  71          4
5  309PID 1FT 6.0D  23.2  46.2 105.6  0.15  0.00  0.00  0.00  76          5
6  334PID 4FT 5.5D  22.5  46.4 105.2  0.20  0.20  0.70  3.80  74          6
7  350PID 2FT 6.0D  23.4  46.5 104.6  0.00  0.50  1.70 11.40  70          7
8  366PID 8FT 5.5D  22.3  46.2 105.1  7.10 11.60  6.60  7.50  71          8
Let me know what you find.

Ted
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Old 06-24-2015, 06:48 PM   #13
Bill V.
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wrong 83

Hi Ted
here is what i see
I am using probably using an out of date version of RDSS

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Old 06-24-2015, 09:19 PM   #14
lone speed
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
I get about the same BL order as you do (my DTV ranges may be different = -15 +15).

Attachment 39055

However, one question I would always ASK is - can anyone challenge the Early horse? #2 is the Early horse (indeed, a Fighter). The #5 is the only other Early horse, but as the Projected Pace tools shows, cannot touch the likely times of the #2. Thus - the #2 will slow down and CONSERVE its energy for later disbursement against the likely Closers. Thus, the pace will not be as fast, and today's Total Energies and SRs will not be as high.

Will the Closers over take the #2? Maybe. But if it is unchallenged (as is likely), there is a chance it can hold. We don't KNOW if this will happen, but at 5-1 this is a ripe and recurring scenario for betting on (or somehow including) an unchallenged Early horse.

I might suggest you always consider the above generic analysis of the likely Early battle, when determining if there is ANY value to mentally rejigging the BL Line score.

FWIW.

Attachment 39056
Attachment 39057
Attachment 39058

Ted
I would like to point out several school of thoughts regarding this problem race at PID:

Early Pace Advantage

As Ted alluded to about the early pace matchup in this race:

Before one goes to the B/L screen, it behooves one to evaluate the energy screen and to analyze the matchup of the 1st and second call of the match-up as the example screen attached.
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Old 06-24-2015, 09:33 PM   #15
lone speed
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Form Cycle patterns repeating over and over...

Another viewpoint is that this horse will make its third "extended" effort off a major layoff of 200 days from last Sept.11, 2014....

Its first race back at OP or Oaklawn Park; it worked out 4 furlongs and then stopped. It ran to the 4 furlongs maker in a respectable 46 and change...Great workout for 4 furlongs and faded out of the race by over 30 lengths.

Then in its second race on May 20 at PID, it ran a winning race at 5 and 1/2 F running late.

Finally, in its last paceline, this horse ran early and faded after chasing a six furlong fractions of 109.7 and fading by three lengths at the finish line.

Now, form cycle enthusiasts will say that today will be its third race back and it is ready for a major "effort" besting its previous by several lengths.

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Today, this horse might run that "83"

expected "major effort" today at 83 rating

last paceline at a 78
second paceline at 77
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Old 06-25-2015, 10:22 AM   #16
Bill V.
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line 1

Hi Late kick
Ted and lonespeed give excellent examples of handicapping,
which is fine , If you or anybody wishes to just wagercap
Which does work too , actually it works very well,
You will miss this $11.00 winner.

The first clue to any race you wagercap that goes bad
as this one did, should always be to check your pace lines
I see from your op that you used the last line for every horse
This can be a little red flag . I am not saying it never happens
but if you check in all the follow ups from let's say 72 on up
to 88 you will see hardly any examples of winning readouts
were every line chosen was from the last line

ACTUALLY
looking at races on pace and cap you too will find very few with line 1 only
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Old 06-25-2015, 10:32 AM   #17
Bill V.
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not wrong

In addition and to clarify. I am not saying if you happen to choose
and end up with a race were every horse,s last line is the line.
This is not a bad thing. I only feel based on evidence from the
follow Ups and here is that it's rare. ,
Maybe a 4th or 5th
Vdc horse might get you . as not every horse will improve off
It.s best recent effort.
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Old 06-26-2015, 12:52 AM   #18
Latekick
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Hey Bill, i know what you are saying. Its very rare for me to use the last line for every horse but that just the way it happened in this race and i missed the extreme pace advantage this horse had in this race which should have made me realize that his extremely easy lead could make him tough. Thanks for all the responses i am glad i got to work this one over with you guys.
Belmont tourney tommorow, wish me luck.
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