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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 06-05-2019, 08:51 PM   #11
Mitch44
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Hello Bill,


I'm afraid my friend your missing my main points here. I'm providing information and material many may not be aware of because its not on the recommended reading list or they may not understand it.I believe your real dissatisfaction is with Sartin himself as this isn't my writings or opinions but from the master himself.
I'm also well aware of your love of TPR etc. and your free to choose and use whatever you may wish.


No one is questioning your allegiance to Sartin, his beliefs or guidelines. And I haven't the foggiest idea where such a comment comes from.


Bill you are correct that the TPR/ Phase 1 within the present day RDSS is better that the original TPR from PMTR. I read an article by Sartin in which he said he decided to take back TPR from the public and he made it better. He didn't say how and the only thing I can assume was he was talking about adjustments etc. When I returned back to Sartin material I asked Ted about this to which he replied; he was unaware of that and that it was the same as the original.
The 3 FRACTIONS are the foundation for everything and fostered many new factors


While TPR is OK it'll never beat the proven ability of later developed factors such as BLBL or V/DC for getting winners. While both require the picking of a pace line members may use whatever they choose to.


Mitch44
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Old 06-05-2019, 10:10 PM   #12
Bill V.
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Good

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
FU # 43 key points,facts or statements, takeaway's:

pg. 38 " TPR, is still Phase I and,while it's a better handicapping tool than those popular Pace/Speed Figures, its predictive value is quite limited for those seeking professional level win proficiency and profits." pg. 48 " The winners are still there but their resultant win price has dropped."

pg. #42 "With few exceptions,(again there are always a few), truly successful handicappers don't cluster toward a group mean; don't feel compelled to get along with everybody or to be know as Mr.(or Ms.) "nice guy." I was surprised to the max reading this one, of course open to your own interpretation.

pg. #42 "The quest for absolutes and rules is the downfall of most aspiring handicappers." pg.43 "Another vital CONCEPT of this Methodology is this: In succ- essful Handicapping THERE ARE NO RULES."

pg. 44 " The MATCH-UP.This is the mechanical bottom line for all 7 phases of the Methodology." At the time of this writing there were 7 phases, and after this other phases and programs were developed. Even today within the RDSS program it still is the main ingredient to the recipe or bottom line. Note: this does not mean BLBL!!

pg.46 Static numerical ratings such as a Beyer SR are based on a horses innate ability without regard for the contenders it's going against in a specific race. "The essence of the Match Up is NOT how well or fast a horse can run but how it will run against today's contention. The Match Up is based on incremental times and positions or, if you want to join the crowd ,call it pace." I myself think the best way to understand pace is to think of the 3 Fraction's as 3 different speed ratings or measurements.

pg. 47 He talks about different factors, many would not exist without the 3 Fractions, by going to the 3 Fr's the win proficiency increased to 63 %. Higher than what can be achieved with just 2 increments of measurements or TPR / phase 1 These compounded factors greatly raised the bar of proficiency. Also Huey Mall said that segments of a race reduces the effects of a variant, or more segments the less the effect the variant will have on a race. I might add even more so with several compounded factors or ratings.

What are your takeaway's?

Mitch44
Hello Mitch

What are your takeaway's?

I don't feel io missed your point at all.

I only did what you asked for. I realize the main snippets you post are Doc's words taken from his "from the top" articles
They are not yours. That is why I quoted and italicized the question and or statements you presented.

I am very thankful for this topic and your postings,
It has always been my wish for this type of inquiry of Doc's words.
From day one of my creation of VDC Messenger and then Pace and Cap, I hoped things mentioned in from EVERY follow-up, could be questioned.

If something is written that somebody feels may be out of date or has statistical evidence against his words they should be discussed in the Pace and Cap friendly manner.

Now to be clear once again, I respect Doc's words and guidelines to the max.
I don't want folks to say Bill V. is anti-Doc. No far from it.
If Doc were still with us, I am sure he would use our members to validate things for him, As he did in the infancy of Ted's RDSS program.

Thank you so much for your postings. However, not everything that was written
in the early '90s is still applicable in today's racing and should be discussed
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Old 06-06-2019, 12:21 AM   #13
Lefty
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I really liked it and understood when Doc likened the methodology to Jazz!
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Old 06-06-2019, 06:30 AM   #14
Mitch44
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Yes Lefty that was a very good analogy. Hopefully everyone can jazz it up and become better.


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Old 06-06-2019, 06:49 AM   #15
Bill V.
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Drive

Hi Chuck

Another tip from Doc was to drive an alternate route to work/ track
Don't keep driving the same course and parking in the same spot.
Change things up in the home life to keep the mind open.

There is a great Jazz radio station here in San Diego 88.3 commercial-free
available online 24/7
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Old 06-06-2019, 06:57 AM   #16
Mitch44
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Hello Bill,


I said in my introduction that "The material is overwhelmingly pertinent today and insightful. Not all will agree with the master but a handicapper must take advantage of every proven positive to be successful."


Thus far I haven't come across anything that isn't current or applicable but I'm aware of a few. That's another reason I 'm quoting Sartin on very important facts. I do welcome participation and the brainstorming and back and forth can benefit all here at P & C. This isn't a lecture but a conference. The "What are your takeaways?" is asked to get participation. Hopefully things can remain on topic with all this.


Welcome aboard Bill,


Mitch44


Bill I don't believe anyone here questions your loyalty to the greats that have contributed and made all this what it is today.
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Old 06-06-2019, 07:47 AM   #17
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In FU # 44 I didn't mention the Brohamer model or a track profile. I believe that they are still valid concepts today.

Sartin " This was all very well and good and mathematically sound.HOWEVER, tracks DO NOT remain consistent."

In the old days before simulcasting a player only played 1 track and were at the track mostly, of course there always was the local bookie. With simulcasting and so many tracks its hard to maintain so many profiles or a Brohamer model. I know Lt1 still maintains some track profiles particularly on Parx.

I've learn to workaround these problems. For a track profile I consult the Bris PP's race summary where they give you a track profile for each distance and surface. It's done for the meet and also a weekly one so you can detect changes. I also get around this when I do a whole card such as on a big race day by observing the first few races to see if its normal or has been speedy up for the big race or day. By adapting you may change your order of selection in later races. Sartin is absolutely correct in that tracks don't remain constant and can change even throughout the day due to weather.

Bris uses the visual running ESP for their profiles so they are not as good as % Med but their better that nothing for those playing many different tracks and save much work.

As far as the Brohamer model I get around it by using factors that are applicable to all tracks and are not track specific. I've gotten these through research and collecting enough data to prove their worth. Far too many are speed handicappers today and its an important component to the big picture but not the end all. I would rather use for example the seven Primary Factors as opposed to any one part of a race. Any one part of a race can change from day to day or even race to race based on conditions of the race and make up of the contenders of the race. The compounded factors are better than a isolated fraction is another example. There are other golden nuggets within RDSS that are even better.

The Longshot detector is simply a horse that was able to overcome the Pace of Race. It works more efficient when a horse doesn't go wire to wire.

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Old 06-06-2019, 10:12 AM   #18
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For the record I keep a Brohamer model for every track I play by dist and surface. And they are effective especially identifying the factors that are winning now. The %med range is also very effective in seeing if a horse can go from a sprint to route etc. As for a profile I also use the Bris stats. The reason I feel comfortable with them is because I did compare them with the actual chart results and found that they are close enough to use and save me some extra record keeping. It's not hard to maintain a model. It takes me about 2 mins after each race to update my models. I'm old fashioned and don't use spread sheets preferring pen and paper. By updating after each race I can spot if the track is playing differently then my model and adjust accordingly.
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Old 06-06-2019, 12:19 PM   #19
Mitch44
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I forgot to mention that the Bris track summary for each race gives you the Beaten lengths for winners at the 1st and SC call for each race. This is a real time saver and an aide in the decision process and interpretation of the race.


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Old 06-07-2019, 06:11 AM   #20
Mitch44
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FU # 45 Adjustments- Part One:
pg. 14 "Each procedure (adjusting for variants etc.)had its imperfections, however, so in 1984 we conceived the dream race pars as a means of making adjustments.

pg.15 "In all of our advanced programs our standard for adjustments is based on "Parameters" derived from the Dream Race. This is a mythical pace line incorporating the HIGH Total Energy, 1st.2nd,3rd fractions, Median Energy and 2nd Call registered by the mix and match of the contenders entered into our computer. Note: see example on pg.17

pg. 19 "Indiscriminate use of the (2) Alternate Adjust can make plow horses look like world beaters. That's why Jim "The Hat" warns against its use.(older programs) However, when applied appropriately with contenders that belong in the mix and match of the race, its use becomes a primary source of longshots."

pg. 20 " The most advanced Par Concept is derived from a combination of Velocity, Energy PLUS relative deceleration.

pg. 20 "The bottom line of this article is. YES, we do subscribe to the PAR concept for making adjustments. BUT, since horses do NOT read commercially sold Par Time Charts, we let THEM make their own pars from the actual potential of THEIR incremental running times."

Now you should understand why proper contenders and pace line selection are so important for success

Also this explains the MATCH UP in the most simplest of explanations. Sartin conceived it in 1984 and when track coach Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw came along he taught it to him.Bradshaw took it to new heights and got so good with it that Sartin could not employ it like him. Sartin collaborated with Bradshaw and we have it in all the later programs, and within todays RDSS program.

Anyone struggling with Bradshaw's match up would be well advised to pick contenders, pace lines and let the program sort it all out. Sartin use to say; "Unless your from Oklahoma and wear a cowboy hat." If Sartin can't do it visually off PP like "The Hat" with his high IQ, the rest of us can forget about it. One has to be aware of their capabilities and limitation's.
I venture to say the overwhelming majority that come to P & C or Sartin stuff fail to get this. Hopefully this will answer many of your questions on adjustments and the MATCH UP

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 06-07-2019 at 06:18 AM.
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