Kentucky Derby 2022 Discussion

[Lt1]

My hats off to you folks doing all this work for a 2min 3yr old race with many unknown factors. Good luck to all. As for me I'll just watch,
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

Back in 2018 Mendelsohn came into the derby with a 117 rating off his win at Meydan, 8 points better than any other runner. small sample but I agree, buyer beware!

Also Thunder Snow in 2017 had a 113 rating, five better than the field!!!

[Ted Craven]

Both horses went on to good careers. But Derby rain (Thunder Snow) and crowds (both) early in their careers agitated both and they failed to fire in May. Maybe need to reduce those international speed and class ratings at least early in a 3-year old's career, who has never seen anything like the crowd and 20-horse stampede of the Kentucky Derby. This upcoming race might be a useful test of that hypothesis.

Ted

[Bill Lyster]

Still for $2 a piece they might save your bacon, come race day. We shall see!!

[tom]

REAL bacon is $10 a pound, so this could be a good bargin!

Good luck, all.

[Bill Lyster]

I drew myself a picture of Sartin Downs and plotted the position of all entries along the way. It appears to me that a lot of these horses LOVE to run close to the lead, so no matter who leads early is going to be pressed into oblivion. Also pressers who might like to run 3-5 will find several more horses in front of them and the resulting traffic pileup could be huge at the top of the stretch.

From this point of view Tiz the Bomb, Mo Donegal, Zandon, maybe even Crown Pride - not in any order - and all horses who are used to passing bunches of other runners in the course of a race appear to match up against this field pretty well. The ? mark for me is Charge It. He banged the gate last time, recovered and closed when needed to finish second. He is probably one of the front runners if his normal style prevails, but he did prove that he could pass horses, albeit without the best closing kick of the group.

Epicenter might be the best presser who weathered the early traffic jam.

Hey they all have a right to improve, so who knows?

[clemento2]

price for epicenter is interesting cos they were given the outside track. is it that impossible?

[Bill Lyster]

No, its not impossible. He just doesn't need to get in a suicide pace scenario and die because of it. He has some Euro speed just outside of him and he can press, close to the rail from PP 3. Of the pressers he probably gets position A, should save ground at least on first turn. Its not impossible.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by clemento2

price for epicenter is interesting cos they were given the outside track. is it that impossible?

Over the years, using Speculator and Energy allowed for simple disqualifaction rules for the Derby that held up well. Increasing, or reaching a total energy of around 165 or higher, Stable % median in the range of 67.2 to 67.8. Elimination was also automatic for colts that declined in total energy and climbed in % median over that range give before (with the change in points now required to run, other than owner's whims) especially as the distances 8, 8.5 and 9.0 exposed a colts inability to handle the longer distance as they increased.

Over the past 8 or 10 runnings, there has been a change of running style winners as more and more Pressers rather than Sustianed/Pressers have visited the winner's circle (especially one like Nyquist, Authentic, Always Dreaming and Medina Spirit.

THIS TIME AROUND we have some new questions: 1) two foreign based colts, about which we have no pacelines to compare, are entered, but then history tells us that EURO type training animals have never done well in this race, 2) FORM wise, TWO stand out as going BACKWARDS as having declined significantly: Simplification and Classic Causeway 3) we have a "wonderkind" animal that has only been to the post twice and has little seasoning in big noisey fields (SA Dery winner)...Tapit came into this race as the last of this source and did ZIP, so we have no idea what this one will do in all that cacophay and crowded run, 4) several colts come into this on significant IMROVEMENT: Mo Donegal, Epicenter, Messier, Tiz the Bomb, Zandon, Pioneer of Medina, and Taiba, 5) colts that seem to have a shot to be up fron early are Messier, White Abarrio, Cyberknife, and Epicenter 6) a few CONTENDERS may be too far back in hqaving to weave through this entire field Zandon, Mo Donegal....these are cetainly acceptable contenders but they may have to have luck on thier side and with the weather predicted as wet Friday an possibley Saturday, that compounds their tasks.

It is no surprise that a rational grouping of potential winners is NOT TOO DEIFFERENT than most have figured out here: Messier, (pace) Taiba, Epicenter, Zandon, Mo Donegal, Smile Happy, White Abarrio (Pace?) and Cyberknife (pace)...LONG shots (the foreign duo), Charge It, Prisoner of Medina.

best sustained: 1 12 6 10 3 1 6...best pace of Race: 1 12 6 3 10 5

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Lt1

My hats off to you folks doing all this work for a 2min 3yr old race with many unknown factors. Good luck to all. As for me I'll just watch,
Tim

Wagering wise, a great opinion