Kentucky Derby 2022 Discussion

[ClockerDan]

Epicenter and Messier I've got for a box to win

Early Voting and ( the other FREAK ) Tabia for 3rd and 4th

With Mo Dougal, Zandon and Tiz the Bomb for a 7 horse trifecta box

Any thoughts ??? Replacements ???

What do you experts think !?!?!!!??

[DanBoals]

From what I remember from years past, it seems to me that as long as the DRF has been posting Beyer numbers, that the Derby winner has almost always thrown at least a 100 Beyer in one of its previous races. I remember one year when that was not the case and how surprising it was to me.

Tabia, Epicenter, and Messier have all thrown a 100+, so those would be my 3 picks to win. Place and Show is always difficult for me to predict, especially with the traffic of 20 horses, if the jockey puts the horse in the wrong spot, it can really blow the race. At this point, I really kinda like Tabia. Followed closely by Epicenter. Need to really compare the horses in RDSS before I can truly commit though.

[Tim Y]

When he data is available I will give my 2 cents worth: top few stand out based upon OBSERVATION of the final trips but that can be very misleading

[ClockerDan]

My dad"s favorite horse was sunday silence --- anyone give the japanese horse a chance there surface is so sandy hard to get a
speed figure similar to ours and saudi"s track is hard to judge as well

[Bill Lyster]

I post this once a year prior to the Derby. It relates to what Jim Bradshaw called his Marathon method. It is used for races at 10 furlongs or longer. I use it for all the triple crown races since the Preakness is just a half furlong shorter than 10 furlongs.

"When this info was first posted in 2007 all 31 of the past Santa Anita Handicaps [run at 10 furlongs BTW] had been won by horses either first or 2nd at the stretch call. Since that time all 9 subsequent winners have been first or 2nd at the 9f/stretch call and 7 out of 9 were within 0.50 lengths of the lead at the mile call. One winner was 4th by 8 and the other was 6th by 4 lengths.

For the Derby, the original info was 41 out of 44 1st or 2nd at stretch call. Since then 7 of 8 were 1st or 2nd at the stretch call, one was 3rd by 1.5 Lengths (update info 48/52).

I was not the instigator of the 41/44 info, but I did go back as far as equibase allowed. In the last 24 Derbys (back to 1991) 20/24 were within 4.5 lengths at the mile call; 22/24 were either 1st or 2nd at the 9f/stretch call (or within 1.5 lengths). Giacomo and Grindstone were 6th, 2.75 and 4th by 3.5 lengths respectively, at their stretch calls.

Moral of the story is, if you are not on or near lead or in the process of passing a lot of horses you probably will not win the Derby. Deep closers from races with slow mile times are candidates for other than win."

With that in mind, the following horses were on or near the lead in this year's races:

Early Voting: 1-1-1-1-2 against 111.6 internal time, a mile time of 135.66 and a last furlong of 12.2 seconds.

Simplification 2-2-2-2-3, against 110.3 internatl, a mile time of 136.4 and a last furlong of 14.2 seconds.

Taiba 3-3-3-2-1, against 110.8, mile of 136.2, final furlong of 12.2

Epicenter 3-3-3-1-1, against 111.6, mile of 136.3, final furlong of 11.6

Messier 2-2-2-1-1, against 110.8, mile 135.5, final furlong of 12.5

Zozo 1-1-1-2-2-, against 111.6, mile 136.0, final furlong 12.1

Pioneer 2-2-2-3-3, against 111.6, mile 136.2, final furlong 12.7

Four horses in races with a 111.6 six furlong time, my guess the probable pace. Only Early Voting and Zozo actually lead with this time. Simplification close vs 110.3 closed in 14.2 and is out.

The Pressers are:

White Abbario: 5-5-3-1, against 110.6, mile 136.7, final furlong 13.7

Tiz: 6-6-3-1-1, against 111.2, mile 136.0, final furlong 12.6

Cyberknife: 4-4-2-1-1, against 111.2, mile 137.2, final furlong 13.2

Smile: 4-3-3-1-2, against 112.6, mile 137.2, final furlong 13.2

Charge It: 4-4-4-4-2, against 110.6, mile 136.7, final furlong 13.7

Happy Jack: 5-5-6-5-3, against 110.8, mile 137.2, final furlong 13.6

Skippy: 5-5-4-5-3, against 111.6, mile 136.3, final furlong 12.1

Just off these times my choice for best pressers are Tiz and Skippy

Sustained horses:
Zandon: 9-10-11-2-1, against 112.6, mile 138.4, final furlong 11.4

Mo Donegal: 7-8-6-2-1, against 111.6, mile 136.5, final furlong 11.3 - My best closer.

[Bill Lyster]

Without any track to track or distance adjustments here is what I see going forward:

NAME RACE POS. 6 f TIME MILE TIME Last 1/8 th 9F TIME
Early Voting 1-1-1-1-2 111.6 135.7 12.2 147.86
Simplification 2-2-2-2-3 110.3 136.4 14.2 150.60
Taiba 3-3-3-2-1 110.8 136.2 12.2 148.40
Epicenter 3-3-3-1-1 111.6 136.3 11.6 147.90
Messier 2-2-2-1-1 110.8 135.5 12.5 148.00
Zozos 1-1-1-2-2 111.6 136.0 12.1 148.10
Pioneer of Medin2-2-2-3-3- 111.6 136.2 12.7 148.90

White Abbario 5-5-3-1-1 110.6 136.7 13.9 150.60
Tiz 6-6-3-1-1 111.2 136.0 12.6 148.60
Cyberknife 4-4-2-1-1 111.2 137.2 13.2 150.40
Smile Happy 4-3-3-1-2 112.6 137.7 12.1 149.80
Charge It 4-4-4-4-2 110.6 136.7 13.7 150.40
Happy Jack 5-5-6-5-3 110.8 137.2 13.6 150.80
Skippy Longst 5-5-4-5-3 111.6 136.3 12.1 148.40

Zandon 9-10-11-2-1 112.6 138.4 11.4 149.80
Mo Donegal 7-8-6-2-1 111.6 136.5 11.3 147.80

I used lines from G1 and G2 races where the horse was first or second. SKippy was 3rd in his grade 1, only deviation from that. Recall that Howard said when in doubt use the best sustained horses for the Derby.

I guess I have not figured out how to space the data. I copied it from an Xcel sheet and it all ran together.

[Bill Lyster]

Just a hint, the above is easier to read (as in formatted) if you pretend you are quoting it all in a reply. Then the column data lines up!

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Just a hint, the above is easier to read (as in formatted) if you pretend you are quoting it all in a reply. Then the column data lines up!

NAME RACE POS. 6 f TIME MILE TIME Last 1/8 th 9F TIME

Early Voting 1-1-1-1-2 111.6 135.7 12.2 147.86
Simplification 2-2-2-2-3 110.3 136.4 14.2 150.60
Taiba 3-3-3-2-1 110.8 136.2 12.2 148.40
Epicenter 3-3-3-1-1 111.6 136.3 11.6 147.90
Messier 2-2-2-1-1 110.8 135.5 12.5 148.00
Zozos 1-1-1-2-2 111.6 136.0 12.1 148.10
Pioneer of Medin2-2-2-3-3- 111.6 136.2 12.7 148.90
White Abbario 5-5-3-1-1 110.6 136.7 13.9 150.60
Tiz 6-6-3-1-1 111.2 136.0 12.6 148.60
Cyberknife 4-4-2-1-1 111.2 137.2 13.2 150.40
Smile Happy 4-3-3-1-2 112.6 137.7 12.1 149.80
Charge It 4-4-4-4-2 110.6 136.7 13.7 150.40
Happy Jack 5-5-6-5-3 110.8 137.2 13.6 150.80
Skippy Longst 5-5-4-5-3 111.6 136.3 12.1 148.40
Zandon 9-10-11-2-1 112.6 138.4 11.4 149.80
Mo Donegal 7-8-6-2-1 111.6 136.5 11.3 147.80


Sorry Bill I was trying to line up your excellent work!!

Always great to see your contributions!!

[ClockerDan]

TY Bill Lyster appreciate the stats -- come post time draw I will see what I might chage

in my original thoughts, tyvm Dan

[ClockerDan]

wow !!! ty Lone Speed for putting it in order