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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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06-02-2011, 05:45 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Betting the top 2 Total Energy runners in every race ( "B Jennet" style!) returned $57.70 while betting $38.00 (there was a tie for TE rank 2 in Race 4)
E/L 2.0 screen also did VERY well I hope some of you took the time to watch the video I put up in the 7th post in this thread man. Talk about FUN and amazing talent man - Wow life is short- take it all in while we are Blessed to be here. There is NO guarantee of tomorrow ( end of rant!)
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
06-03-2011, 01:36 AM | #12 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 311
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E/L 2.0 very good but RDSS still better
Quote:
Thanks for putting these races up, although I couldn't play today. Also appreciated one of the days you put up Belmont last week - had the late Pick-3 for $1300. First, just wanted to mention that this performance from the top two TE is absolutely consistent with what I've found the past few years on the NY and CA circuits - 75% winners. Also somewhat true of WO. I haven't found quite this level anywhere else for TE, but it still bear repeating - the top three horses win most of the races at most tracks. Also want to explain why I think RDDS is still so valuable, even vs. E/L 2.0., although they both had an excellent day today. RDDS not only wins at higher rate (not including today!), but it has superior ordinality (the higher-ranked horses win more often than the lower-ranked) which is crucial in terms of betting. Today is a perfect example. Let's assume we throw out Race 7, due to the FTS winner. Of the remaining 8 races, the top 2 TE (as you said) won 75%, yielding $1.70 ROI, and the top 2 E/L 2.0 horses (E1, L1), won 50% for a $1.48 ROI. Another way to illustrate the value of ordinality is to look at all 4 E/L 2.0 contenders - even on a day when it won an excellent 100% of relevant races, the ROI was only $1.07, if all contenders were bet. I'll be very interested in seeing what the beta-testing reveals about E/L 2.0, but it still appears to me that RDSS is better at isolating winners, and E/L 2.0, better at identifying more consistent ITM horses. Hope you enjoy your time in CT - beautiful country. Cheers, B Jennet |
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06-04-2011, 09:39 AM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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B Jennet,
That is very impressive that you are able to get 75% winners in your top two TE and are nice enough to share that info.I wanted to know what criteria you use for picking your pacelines as you must be really good at doing so.Im surprised that there hasnt been more feedback on this. |
06-05-2011, 11:41 PM | #14 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 311
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No panacea
Quote:
First, I think it's worth mentioning that, even when the primary factors produce this high hit rate at these tracks, it's often accompanied by low mutuels. I think this particular day at BEL was just positive variance, in terms of odds. It reminded me of the old days :-). Also, I know that the Sartin Methodology regards paceline selection as sacred, but many serious researchers into the issue, including Ken Massa, Jeff Platt, Dave Schwartz, and others have found that this overrates its significance in relationship to other factors. If you go on the HTR site, which is an excellent resource, and go through Ken's newsletters, you can find the results of his research. Still, if you're interested, I've mentioned using TE in a completely mechanical way, as a viable paceline selection method, and I think, slightly better ROI than the BL/BL. Standard Sartin, using last three races, similar distance and surface, use the line with the best three (or four, if you wish) TE of the field. One caveat: make sure to eliminate herd horses, which seem especially common in turf races. As I've said, this works best within class parameters above 15k and below Gr.III in my experience. For graded stakes, I've found adding one fps. to the TE of any horse competing against those one level below seems to improve accuracy - i.e. in a Gr. II race, subtract one fps. for any Gr. III line, and add one fps. for any Gr. 1 line. Cheers, B. Jennet |
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06-06-2011, 06:15 AM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Thanks for your reply
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