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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 04-14-2018, 08:56 PM   #11
lone speed
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All the Derby Prep Races are in...

The Arkansas Derby had the fastest last 3 Furlongs but after a super slow early pace fractions...

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Old 04-15-2018, 12:59 AM   #12
lone speed
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Current top 20 Derby entrants subject to late defections

Here is a list of the top 20 Derby entrants:

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Old 04-15-2018, 12:16 PM   #13
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Arkansas Derby Final Fractions

All the "buzz" after the running of the Arkansas Derby has been about the closing fractions of the top four finishers in the race:

After a moderate to slow early pace fractions:

Magnum Moon 36.47

Quip 37.13

Solomini 36.81

Combatant 36.30

A similar buzz occurred after the running of the Santa Anita Derby.

Was the Justify's 107 Beyer or 114 Brisnet figure "justified"???

Maybe, in my two cents comment...Justify and Bolt D'Oro paired up their previous race....We all got some work to do, in the next 3 weeks......
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Old 04-15-2018, 02:33 PM   #14
lone speed
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Justify versus Magnum Moon

A quick look: comparing Justify's Santa Anita Derby race fractions with Magnum Moon's Arkansas Derby race fraction...( without a "variant adjustment" )

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Justify's Fractions

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Magnum Moon's Fractions

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Old 04-15-2018, 02:42 PM   #15
lone speed
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Magnum Moon:

In the Arkansas Derby, Magnum Moon sped out quickly 23.34 but won the race when he got away with a 25.26 fraction to reach 4 Furlongs in 48.60...( on a fair fast track)

If we were to match up Magnum Moon with Justify...Magnum will have to run faster by 4 ticks to the 4 furlong marker and 4 ticks faster at the 6 furlong marker which will negate any superior closing fractions from his Arkansas Derby race. The same goes for the other contenders from the same race........
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Old 04-15-2018, 04:09 PM   #16
Bill Lyster
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Top20 pts contenders for derby by running style

Derby Contenders Early Speed 2018.xls
See Sheet 4 for contenders listed by running style.

I honestly do not know how/where to rank Mendelsohn due to the runup issue and how the various splits actually work out. His 9.5 furlong info is from the Trakus charts so its unchanged. With that in mind he looks pretty good. With any upgrade of early fractions he looks even better.

Could not find any Gronkowski info.

Good luck
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Old 04-15-2018, 04:16 PM   #17
lone speed
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Thanks Bill L.....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Attachment 46077
See Sheet 4 for contenders listed by running style.

I honestly do not know how/where to rank Mendelsohn due to the runup issue and how the various splits actually work out. His 9.5 furlong info is from the Trakus charts so its unchanged. With that in mind he looks pretty good. With any upgrade of early fractions he looks even better.

Could not find any Gronkowski info.

Good luck
It's always a great pleasure to hear your mile marathon analysis.....!!!

IMHO:

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Old 04-15-2018, 05:01 PM   #18
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great link regarding Mendelssohn

Thanks to Boys at Toscanova at PaceAdvantage Forum:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=144287
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Old 04-15-2018, 08:12 PM   #19
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Mendelssohn's 1900 meters converted to 1 3/16th

Converting the 1900 meters times to 9.5 Furlongs; we have

155.185 final time converted after adjustments for run- up and about-distance:

1:53.86 adjusted final time for 9.5 Furlongs

Mendelssohn's 9 furlongs time is about 1:47.46

Caveat Emptor!!!!!!

These are approximate adjustments (mine--for entertainment purposes)

Last edited by lone speed; 04-15-2018 at 08:25 PM. Reason: time adjustments
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Old 04-15-2018, 08:28 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lone speed View Post
Converting the 1900 meters times to 9.5 Furlongs; we have

155.185 final time converted after adjustments for run- up and about-distance:

1:53.86 adjusted final time for 9.5 Furlongs

Mendelssohn's 9 furlongs time is about 1:47.46

Caveat Emptor!!!!!!

These are approximate adjustments (mine--for entertainment purposes)
Thus Mendelssohn's final 3 Furlongs on a souped up Meydan racecourse (3 track records broken and 16 out of 17 dirt races were won by wire to wire fashion:

36.96 Final 3 furlongs after hitting the 6 furlong marker at 1:10.48
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