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Old 11-29-2008, 09:04 AM   #1
partsnut
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Thumbs up HOL 11-29-08 Race -3 (Fairly Straight Forward Race)

HOL 11-29-08 Race -3

This race sets up for a sustained horse.
I have this race between the 5 & 6.
My eventual choice would be the (6).
However odds of 5-1 or better on this horse will not
be achieved so I'll probably take a pass on this race.
I've attached a PDF file with my interpretation of this race.
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Old 11-29-2008, 04:53 PM   #2
tfm
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Question for you; and I hope you don't think I'm after the fact on this as the winner payed 9:5 and was unplayable.

Now, the charts clearly show that the winner moved PREMATURELY into the pace last out, effectively collapsing the race, and setting it up for a last mover.
This race was of the type I've deemed 'wipeout', where the rest of the field is retreating in relation to the winner at the wire.

I believe that it's moves rather than pace that collapse races (with obvious exceptions) and I wonder if you take actual race events into consideration when doing your calculations.

My my standpoint, premature moves from horses that have ability, and into race dynamics that don't favor that particular type of move, are pretty much auto betbacks.

Just a thought.
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Old 11-29-2008, 05:24 PM   #3
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TFM:
Quote:
Question for you; and I hope you don't think I'm after the fact on
I believe that it's moves rather than pace that collapse races (with obvious exceptions) and I wonder if you take actual race events into consideration when doing your calculations.
TFM, I like your chart but I am not familiar with the program it came from.
Maybe you will be kind enough to share this with me.

When I use PaceAppraiser, I get a clear picture of how the race should run.
Obviously class was the factor here.
The eventual winer was a contender of mine. I overlooked the class aspect of this race. My horse finished 2nd. I've included a comparison of the winner and the place horse. The program I use does not present split times. It's all inclusive in the read-outs. The program for the most part is predicated on the pace. If you need further details, I would be happy to explain further by email.
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Old 11-29-2008, 06:51 PM   #4
tfm
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Let me expand a bit by discussing your choice, Fado. If you look at the chart of his last race you'll notice that Fado finished well in a race that had fallen apart: the speed was done, one of the middle position horses won the race, and Fado came late with ANOTHER closer. Previous to that he fired blanks, barely raised a hoof, in a race where the speed wire and the pace held well.

Leads me to conclude (without looking back further) that Fado needs the race to collapse, and collapse completely, as the race had in the case of Boule D'our previously, in order for him to lift a hoof. This would require a good pace and some middle moves, as it wouldn't be enough just for the pacesetters to quit but the chasers would have to quit as well. Not happening in a 7 horse field especially since we can't really expect Bouler D'our to get another idiotic pace collapsing ride. Now, if Fado had a race in which he'd closed against the grain, it'd be a different story.

Just adding another perspective: CONTEXT - the race itself.
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