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07-02-2012, 12:44 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Tempe, Arizona
Posts: 600
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Pattern Recognition - Router in a sprint
About a week ago, PeteC put up a nice race for 5K claimers paying a purse of $7,100 from Emerald Downs. It's available in the matcher forum if you'd like to look at it.
I totally missed the race. The winner of the race was a router (he had one sprint in his ten PP lines). This is a pattern I have seen repeat itself many times. All the routes for this horse were at TuP. The line I looked at was the fourth line back. The fractions were 23.3 46.4 1:12.1. The horse was in 3rd position 1 length back at the first call and second call and in 2nd position .5 lengths back at the six furlong call. If we use the Hat's method of subtracting 2/5 of a second to get a sprint time for the half mile and six furlong time and make an appropriate quarter mile time, we end up with a 22.4 46.2 1:11.4 for the router. The race actually went 21.4 44.1 56.3 1:09.1 There was a great deal of early speed in the race. Also, EMD just might be the fastest track in North America; faster still than Turf Paradise if you can believe that. Still, the quarter time puts the router about 5 lengths off the lead which is where he was at the first call. The other fractions don't match up quite so well. I believe this is due to the speed of the race tracks involved. The horse paid 6:1 winning from off the pace. Here are a few characteristics I have observed about these types: 1. They need to run very close to a fast route pace through six furlongs. 2. If they show that they need the lead, a judgment needs to be made if they can run without the lead. 3. Sometimes these horses run from off the lead in sprints. Other times, they can run close to a slow sprint pace. There was a race from Hollywood on the grass on Sunday 7/1 that fit this pattern. Race #7 at six furlong where the 2 won at 7:1. The 2 had run in a mile route on the grass 3 back that went 22.2 45 1:08.3 where he sat 3rd 3.5L back at the first call, 4th 3.5 lengths back at the second call, and 2nd 2.5 lengths back at the 6 furlong call. These routers frequently pay well and come up much more often than you might think. Tim |
07-21-2012, 03:05 AM | #2 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Inland Empire. Lived here since '74. Never knew about Pirco. Shame!
Posts: 17
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Cap, Glad to see you 'Matching" using Pattern Recognition. I have gotten very good at 'Matching" by practicing the Mind's Eye exercises and the Voodoo threads. I have been 'practicing' for about 6 months now and it's amazing how races seem to keep repeating and repeating. I'm not an expert, yet, but I'm sure headed that way. I let my brain do all the work and only use 'software' as my corollaries at the very end of 'capping to either confirm my picks or spot something I may have over looked. Keep up the 'Pattern Recognition."
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07-22-2012, 11:06 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
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Repeat?
Hey Tim, thanks for your post and I've been thinking about what you said. I've been waiting to find a race myself that I think fits what you are describing. I have posted one today and we'll see if I'm on the right track. Here's what I see...
1,4,5,6,7 like to be on the lead or very close. As a group I see them as very similar, either on the lead in 22 or pressing/fighting in 21.4 or so. The 8 has won and finished 2nd by half a length against a 22 45 and seems like a prime OTE contender to me. The horse that made me think of your post is the 3. It led a route at the quarter and half and was still only a half length back at the 6F mark against a 111. Doing the conversion you mentioned give a 110.3 which seems to compare favorably against the early runners' recent times, especially considering the hot pace they should face today. I'm going with the 8 and the 3... |
07-22-2012, 08:17 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
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#5 take them all the way...
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