Fastest Pace Last Race

[delayjf]

I have been reviewing the match up posts and find the concept interesting, especially regarding Bradshaw's FPLR. I have looked high and low, but I'm not sure I understand exactly how to apply the FPLR concept.

- Are you looking for any horse who ran in the FPLR, regardless of their performance in that race (i.e. 20 lengths off the pace or getting beat by 20 lengths at the finish)

OR

- Are you applying a performance criteria to the FPLR concept whereby the horse must have either pressed or challenged the early pace even if they did not finish well, or perhaps the horse in question finished competitively (is competitively defined?) in the race in order to be considered as a FPLR horse.

Thanks in advance.

[Mark]

My understanding is that the horse that ran in the last race with the fastest early pace should have a competitive finish. Maybe not a close up finish but not beaten say more than 5 lengths. When pressed about this Richie P would always defer to "everyone sees things differently" and said that experience would teach us.
When you are sure you have a horse like this, you can then attempt to make him as fast as possible as in combine pacelines etc. Then try to beat him. If you can, throw him out if not, that is your bet.
I've had a difficult time putting this into operation. Because as Jim did it and I think Richie too, it was mentally because you can't do it in RDSS. The best i have been able to do is take two pacelines, usually a fast 1st and second fraction and then find a good final fraction and sort of eyeball it.
Hope that helps!

[MikeB]

There are several variations off the FPLR concept, but a major one is using it to project the pace of today's race.

There are two ways to project pace.

1. First, decide the horse that is likely to take the lead. In picking the horse that is going to take the lead, find a horse that has truly been in the lead at the first call. In the event none of the horses definitely had the lead, use a time where a horse tried for the lead or was up close. Next, find a horse that was in the lead at the second call. Use the same procedure explained in finding the first call. Next, find a final time that matches the first two calls, and you have the projected pace of today's race. Never add beaten lengths to any of the fractional calls. Horses that do not match today's pace are will have difficulty winning.

2. Find the horse that has run the best against the fastest pace in his last race, at today's track, and at today's distance. Tandem races are good races used in this procedure. If none of the horse have run at today's distance consider any fast sprint, or any fast route line. This horse is the pace horse that all the other horses will be matched against.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5715

In option 2 above, you find the horse that ran the best against the fastest pace of all of the last race pace lines in today's field. You assume that those splits will be the pace of today's race. Then you look at every pace line of every horse to see if it is capable of running well against that pace. If not, throw it out. If so, it is a contender.

[delayjf]

When you say "ran the best against the fastest pace" you referring to final time / position and not first or second call time / position.

[MikeB]

Originally Posted by delayjf

When you say "ran the best against the fastest pace" you referring to final time / position and not first or second call time / position.

No, I am looking for a horse that was competitive and ran well against the fastest pace. I rarely look at final time. "Ran well" means it set the early pace or fought for the early lead or pressed the pace and finished well. It means the horse was competitive in that race, given its running style, and appears ready to be a contender today.

Since that horse was competitive against that fast pace, I use that as the projected pace for today's race, and find which others in the field can compete against that pace. If they can, they are contenders for now. If not, they are tossed.

[Mark]

Mike,
When you find the FPLR was run by a S or L horse that runs by everyone late, using that early pace, which he has benefited from does not lead to a good result usually. You normally end up throwing out the Pressers that take the lead turning for home against a slower early pace. The caveat I have seen written is that you have to determine whether that S or L horse has the ability to run closer early so that voodooing his paceline against others doesn't elevate him so much and with his POWER MOVE put him on top.
Easy to say, much harder to do.
I can't think of the other one for some reason. But I would like to get your take on this. Thanks for the input, I appreciate it!

[MikeB]

Originally Posted by Mark

Mike,
When you find the FPLR was run by a S or L horse that runs by everyone late, using that early pace, which he has benefited from does not lead to a good result usually.

I agree. I was just trying to provide a short and quick view of what I thought Jim and Richie meant by "the horse that has run the best against the fastest pace in his last race". And things like final time or beaten lengths certainly don't enter into it.

You will notice that I finessed my previous post by not mentioning Sustained or closer running styles.

In practice, I would never use an "S" for pace projection. An "S" is much too dependent on what every other horse in the field does. Even a "P" can be a problem if there are really no "E"s or "EP"s in the race. It's hard to tell what a "P" will do if it suddenly finds itself in unknown territory, like with the early lead. I believe that The Hat said that if a "P" is the likely early leader, the race will probably run OTE.

The early actions of "E"s and "EP"s are much more predicable. Closers don't determine pace, they react. If you can't find an "E" or "EP" that qualifies as FPLR, I'd say you have to do something else, like what you said about making a voodoo hybrid. Or legitimately excusing a horse's last line and going to the 2nd line for the pace projection.

[delayjf]

No, I am looking for a horse that was competitive and ran well against the fastest pace. I rarely look at final time. "Ran well" means it set the early pace or fought for the early lead or pressed the pace and finished well. It means the horse was competitive in that race, given its running style, and appears ready to be a contender today.

Since that horse was competitive against that fast pace, I use that as the projected pace for today's race, and find which others in the field can compete against that pace. If they can, they are contenders for now. If not, they are tossed.

Just what I was looking for - THANK YOU

Loving this conversation.

[Mark]

Thank you Mike,
That adds weight to my thoughts and clarity as well. Yes, I remember the comments in a "Paceless race". The horse that gets the lead, never having had it before, tends to run off. It must scare them, especially younger horses.
The second issue for me is once I identify the FPLR horse and look for a better race in his pps to make him better, I end up trying to find another horse and search their pps for a race that could set up too much contention allowing someone to come get them. This can sometimes mean getting in the way back machine and finding lines deeper in the pps.
Jim's 3 questions are very broad: 1) is the horse still a horse, 2) has he changed his running style and become a slow horse, 3) can he still get on top of his fractions. Took me along time to figure out what he was saying and still haven't learned to implement it very well. I guess I am always looking at price and suck into some well over the hill runners at times.

Once again, it is very helpful to be able to hear you thoughts and validate my own or allow me to realize that I am off base.

[RichieP]

Hi guys,
Wow I see a "FPLR" thread and had to look in!

Jim LOVED this and it is the FIRST concept he showed me with a BOMB winner (one of course I did NOT get at first look til he showed me his "stuff"!! lol)

What can I Specifically help you with? Anything I post will be 100% "Hat Bradshaw" techniques etc

Karen and I are heading to our grandson Logan's house to surprise him(and for sure his mom too!! )

Anything I can offer to help is my pleasure
Richie