GO LIVE! Mar2 GP3

[The Pook]

Here's another race to decide on whether the one early horse stays or folds. Is it Destiny's destiny to win today?

[The Pook]

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[The Pook]

No other horse but Destiny has seen a lead at the quarter or half. In Destiny's last race she faced some early talent as below.

[The Pook]

The chart from Feb 8

[The Pook]

Here I am looking at horses that have never won again. A maiden race with horses not having full accounts of info. Oh well. It looks to me that Destiny has a distinct advantage. I am sure she will be odds-on. Can we make money in this race? Or maybe you wouldn't touch it with MY money?

Pook

[The Pook]

I think it will have to be exactor play to try and profit. One further thing in the 6 horses advantage is that in MCL races, horses that were 2nd last out, win more than their fair share of the MCL races. You can find this in James Quinns Handicapper condition book. 6 is the only one that was 2nd last out.

With that in mind in this race the 2,4 and 5 I give no lines. Leaves only 1 and 3 to go with the 6.
Exactor 6/1,3

Pook

[Capcondo]

Pook,

Thanks for getting back in and posting.

The 6 is son early, I couldn't play him with canadian dollars! Here's my analysis.

1: Beat six by 11L two back with move.
2: Might run ealy with 6. Sprinter.
3: Late running horse.
4: Late runner on turf. Out.
5: Fast pace on turf. Marginal move.
6: hate to look right (it always gets me in trouble). This horse is incredibly early.
Check median energy. Couldn't get leads in routes after getting lead in sprints.

I wouldn't bet this race but like the 1 based on decent early position, internal fractions, and the fact the 6 will be standing still in the lane.

I'll be watching.

Tim

[raceman5]

Going to use the tandem race from Jan 20.

Picks are the 6-1

Exacta box 6-1-3 if the odds warrant it, but i doubt it.


Bob

[lostandwon]

Pook, thanks for the race.

Regarding the 6: I’m with Capcondo. I question is the 6 still an E horse? Is she still a horse? She got leads in sprints with mid-hi 22 1st fractions. However, her last 2 races (routes) she hasn’t taken the lead in 1st Fr’s ranging from 23.8 to 24.6. The last race she was 3.5 BL @ 23.8 and 2 BL @ 47.4 (right? I get confused at times). The 2nd race back she was .5 lengths off @ 48 flat. I’m thinking she should have gotten the lead in either of those races if she wanted. (Didn’t look at replays…Maybe jock was standing up on her holding her back? Probably not) FWIW, check out the difference between the 3rd Fr in those races. With the differences in POR she winds up 2nd regardless. I wouldn’t bet her to win today at low odds.

Maybe approach it as a hat check paceless race scenario? 6 most likely to get lead so toss her?

In the spirit of picking winners…The 3 gained on pace at each call in the tandem with the 6 last out. It was also the 1st race on dirt for her so maybe there’s some room for improvement?

Regarding making money on the race: I got nothin’…Pour a drink and watch? Nah… In “real life” I would probably (historically) toss the 6 for the most part; bet “x” dollars in many and varied exactas/trifectas; the 6 would win or place and I would “win” a fraction of my total bet back.

[Bill V.]

Hello Pook

No way I would bet this race win only Pee Ewe

If I had to include it in my Pick 4 I would include the 6 but only as a "C"
It would be on my ticket but .. I would use the 1 and 3 as my A and B choice

I don't like the no activity in 22 days This might not seem like anything but
you would think with all the racing the do at GP n the winter there would be some activity

The EPR ratings are low Maybe the Sprinter #2 will mess up the 6 early

Lastly, the total energy for the 1 3 and 6 are all very close No?